Annual Energy Outlook 2016 With Projections To 2040

The Annual Energy Outlook 2016 presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2040. The projections, focused on U.S. energy markets, are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System which enables EIA to make projections under alternative, internally consistent sets of assumptions.

The Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (AEO2016), prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2040. The projections, focused on U.S. energy markets, are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS enables EIA to make projections under alternative, internallyconsistent sets of assumptions. The analysis in AEO2016 focuses on the Reference case and 17 alternative cases. EIA published an Early Release version of the AEO2016 Reference case (including U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Clean Power Plan (CPP)) and a No CPP case (excluding the CPP) in May 2016. The AEO2016 report is a complete edition of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) and includes the following major sections: Executive summary: highlighting key results of the projections Legislation and regulations: discussing evolving legislative and regulatory issues, including a summary of recently enacted legislation and regulations as incorporated in AEO2016, such as: the EPA's final rules for the CPP [1]; the California Air Resource Board Zero- Emission Vehicle program [2]; the extension of the production tax credit for wind and 30% investment tax credit for solar [3]; the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships [4]; adoption of newly added or modified federal eciency standards for residential and commercial appliances and equipment; and modifications to existing state renewable portfolio standard or similar laws [5]. Issues in focus: containing discussions of selected energy topics, including the eYects of the CPP under alternative implementation approaches; the impact of Phase 2 standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles; a discussion that compares the Reference case to alternative cases based on diYerent assumptions about the future course of existing energy policies; the impact on hydrocarbon gas liquids output from changing oil prices and related industrial development; and the sensitivity of steel industry energy consumption to technology choice. Market trends: complete summary by sector of the projections for energy markets comparing the AEO2016 Reference case and the alternative cases, illustrating uncertainties associated with the Reference case projections for energy demand, supply, and prices. Comparisons with other projections: comparing the AEO2016 Reference case to comparable aspects of projections provided by ExxonMobil, IHS Global Insight, International Energy Agency, ICF, BP p.l.c., National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc., and Wood Mackenzie, Inc., among others. Summary tables for the Reference and alternative cases are provided in Appendixes A through D. Complete tables are available in a table browser on EIA's website, at http: //www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/data/browser/. Appendix E provide a short description of the NEMS modules and a complete listing and discussion of the assumptions made for the alternative cases. Appendix F provides a summary of the regional formats, and Appendix G provides a summary of the energy conversion factors used in AEO2016. The AEO2016 projections are based generally on federal, state, and local laws and regulations in eYect as of the end of February 2016. The AEO2016 Reference case assumes that current laws and regulations aYecting the energy sector are largely unchanged throughout the projection period (including the implication that laws which include sunset dates are no longer in eYect at the time of those sunset dates)"

The latest World Energy Outlook offers the most comprehensive analysis of what this transformation of the energy sector might look like, thanks to its energy projections to 2040. It reviews the key opportunities and challenges ahead for renewable energy, the central pillar of the low- carbon energy transition, as well as the critical role for energy efficiency.

International Outlook 2016, an updated statistical reference with energy projections, is provided as a service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. The projections are used by international agencies, federal and state governments, trade associations, and other planners and decision makers. They are published pursuant to the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c). The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand and the major macroeconomic assumptions used in deriving the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) projections, along with the major sources of uncertainty in the projections, which extend through 2040. In addition to the Reference case projections, High Economic Growth and Low Economic Growth cases were developed to consider the effects of higher and lower growth paths for economic activity than are assumed in the Reference case. IEO2016 also includes a High Oil Price case and, alternatively, a Low Oil Price case. The resulting projections--and the uncertainty associated with international energy projections in general--are discussed in Chapter 1, "World energy demand and economic outlook." Projections for energy consumption and production by fuel--petroleum and other liquid fuels, natural gas, and coal--are presented in Chapters 2, 3, and 4, along with reviews of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide basis. Chapter 5 discusses the projections for world electricity markets--including nuclear power, hydropower, and other marketed renewable energy resources--and presents projections of world installed generating capacity. Chapter 6 presents a discussion of energy used in the buildings sector (residential and commercial). Chapter 7 provides a discussion of industrial sector energy use. Chapter 8 includes a detailed look at the world's transportation energy use. Finally, Chapter 9 discusses the outlook for global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. IEO 2016 focuses exclusively on marketed energy. Non-marketed energy sources,which continue to play an important role in some developiing countries, are not included in the estimates. Related products: Energy & Fuels resources collection can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/science-technology/energy-fuels More statistical references can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/statistics-data