Artificial Intelligence Learning And Computation In Economics And Finance

This book presents frontier research on the use of computational methods to model complex interactions in economics and finance. Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning and simulations offer effective means of analyzing and learning from large as well as new types of data. These computational tools have permeated various subfields of economics, finance, and also across different schools of economic thought. Through 16 chapters written by pioneers in economics, finance, computer science, psychology, complexity and statistics/econometrics, the book introduces their original research and presents the findings they have yielded. Theoretical and empirical studies featured in this book draw on a variety of approaches such as agent-based modeling, numerical simulations, computable economics, as well as employing tools from artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms. The use of computational approaches to perform counterfactual thought experiments are also introduced, which help transcend the limits posed by traditional mathematical and statistical tools. The book also includes discussions on methodology, epistemology, history and issues concerning prediction, validation, and inference, all of which have become pertinent with the increasing use of computational approaches in economic analysis.

Readers will find, in this highly relevant and groundbreaking book, research ranging from applications in financial markets and business administration to various economics problems. Not only are empirical studies utilizing various CI algorithms presented, but so also are theoretical models based on computational methods. In addition to direct applications of computational intelligence, readers can also observe how these methods are combined with conventional analytical methods such as statistical and econometric models to yield preferred results.

This book introduces machine learning in finance and illustrates how we can use computational tools in numerical finance in real-world context. These computational techniques are particularly useful in financial risk management, corporate bankruptcy prediction, stock price prediction, and portfolio management. The book also offers practical and managerial implications of financial and managerial decision support systems and how these systems capture vast amount of financial data. Business risk and uncertainty are two of the toughest challenges in the financial industry. This book will be a useful guide to the use of machine learning in forecasting, modeling, trading, risk management, economics, credit risk, and portfolio management.

Work on economic problems and solutions with tools from machine learning. ML has taken time to move into the space of academic economics. This is because empirical work in economics is concentrated on the identification of causal relationships in parsimonious statistical models; whereas machine learning is oriented towards prediction and is generally uninterested in either causality or parsimony. That leaves a gap for both students and professionals in the economics industry without a standard reference. This book focuses on economic problems with an empirical dimension, where machine learning methods may offer something of value. This includes coverage of a variety of discriminative deep learning models (DNNs, CNNs, RNNs, LSTMs, the Transformer Model, etc.), generative machine learning models, random forests, gradient boosting, clustering, and feature extraction. You'll also learn about the intersection of empirical methods in economics and machine learning, including regression analysis, text analysis, and dimensionality reduction methods, such as principal components analysis. TensorFlow offers a toolset that can be used to setup and solve any mathematical model, including those commonly used in economics. This book is structured to teach through a sequence of complete examples, each framed in terms of a specific economic problem of interest or topic. Otherwise complicated content is then distilled into accessible examples, so you can use TensorFlow to solve workhorse models in economics and finance. What You'll Learn Define, train, and evaluate machine learning models in TensorFlow 2 Apply fundamental concepts in machine learning, such as deep learning and natural language processing, to economic and financial problems Solve workhorse models in economics and finance Who This Book Is For Students and data scientists working in the economics industry. Academic economists and social scientists who have an interest in machine learning are also likely to find this book useful.

As Artificial Intelligence (AI) seizes all aspects of human life, there is a fundamental shift in the way in which humans are thinking of and doing things. Ordinarily, humans have relied on economics and finance theories to make sense of, and predict concepts such as comparative advantage, long run economic growth, lack or distortion of information and failures, role of labour as a factor of production and the decision making process for the purpose of allocating resources among other theories. Of interest though is that literature has not attempted to utilize these advances in technology in order to modernize economic and finance theories that are fundamental in the decision making process for the purpose of allocating scarce resources among other things. With the simulated intelligence in machines, which allows machines to act like humans and to some extent even anticipate events better than humans, thanks to their ability to handle massive data sets, this book will use artificial intelligence to explain what these economic and finance theories mean in the context of the agent wanting to make a decision. The main feature of finance and economic theories is that they try to eliminate the effects of uncertainties by attempting to bring the future to the present. The fundamentals of this statement is deeply rooted in risk and risk management. In behavioural sciences, economics as a discipline has always provided a well-established foundation for understanding uncertainties and what this means for decision making. Finance and economics have done this through different models which attempt to predict the future. On its part, risk management attempts to hedge or mitigate these uncertainties in order for “the planner” to reach the favourable outcome. This book focuses on how AI is to redefine certain important economic and financial theories that are specifically used for the purpose of eliminating uncertainties so as to allow agents to make informed decisions. In effect, certain aspects of finance and economic theories cannot be understood in their entirety without the incorporation of AI.

"This book identifies the economic as well as financial problems that may be solved efficiently with computational methods and explains why those problems should best be solved with computational methods"--Provided by publisher.

This book theoretically and practically updates major economic ideas such as demand and supply, rational choice and expectations, bounded rationality, behavioral economics, information asymmetry, pricing, efficient market hypothesis, game theory, mechanism design, portfolio theory, causality and financial engineering in the age of significant advances in man-machine systems. The advent of artificial intelligence has changed many disciplines such as engineering, social science and economics. Artificial intelligence is a computational technique which is inspired by natural intelligence concepts such as the swarming of birds, the working of the brain and the pathfinding of the ants. Artificial Intelligence and Economic Theory: Skynet in the Market analyses the impact of artificial intelligence on economic theories, a subject that has not been studied. It also introduces new economic theories and these are rational counterfactuals and rational opportunity costs. These ideas are applied to diverse areas such as modelling of the stock market, credit scoring, HIV and interstate conflict. Artificial intelligence ideas used in this book include neural networks, particle swarm optimization, simulated annealing, fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms. It, furthermore, explores ideas in causality including Granger as well as the Pearl causality models.

Due to the ability to handle specific characteristics of economics and finance forecasting problems like e.g. non-linear relationships, behavioral changes, or knowledge-based domain segmentation, we have recently witnessed a phenomenal growth of the application of computational intelligence methodologies in this field. In this volume, Chen and Wang collected not just works on traditional computational intelligence approaches like fuzzy logic, neural networks, and genetic algorithms, but also examples for more recent technologies like e.g. rough sets, support vector machines, wavelets, or ant algorithms. After an introductory chapter with a structural description of all the methodologies, the subsequent parts describe novel applications of these to typical economics and finance problems like business forecasting, currency crisis discrimination, foreign exchange markets, or stock markets behavior.