Canadian Economic Policy And The Impact Of International Capital Flows

The object of this study is to investigate the effects that complete and formal integration of the Canadian with the American capital market would have on the Canadian economy. It is based largely on recent trade statistics, particularly those of the period when the exchange rate floated. In summary, the short- and long-run effects could both be beneficial to Canada. This study is a convenient summary of a longer work by the same authors to be published in 1970.

Between 1951 and 1962 nearly ten billion dollars in long-term capital (both direct investment and purchase of securities) flowed into Canada. This massive amount represented one third of all long-term capital moving among industrial nations. Its transfer marked the first time since before World War I that the world witnessed such a large-scale international movement of capital motivated primarily by a prospect of higher rates of return. In Capital Transfers and Economic Policy the authors test the theory of the causes and effects of international capital movements against the evidence drawn from Canada's experience. They explore Canada's adjustment to capital flows and show how the operation of her economic policy is affected by the sensitivity of capital flows to the country's interest rates and foreign-exchange rate. Their brilliant analysis is particularly valuable in light of current trends in capital flows among industrial nations and the June 1970 return of the Canadian dollar to a flexible exchange rate, which put the economy in a working situation similar to that of the fifties.

Multinational enterprises have become one of the distinctive institutions of our times. Controversy over their economic and political effects, and over appropriate public policy responses, has become common in home and host countries and in international agencies. Much of this debate is reminiscent of the role of large corporations generally, particularly in their interregional and intergroup effects. The multinational setting, however, would have raised distinctive issues even apart from the strong surges of nationalism and anti-imperialism which have marked recent history. Canada has a long and unusual experience with such enterprises. Foreign control of capital in the nonfinancial industries (manufacturing, petroleum and gas, other mining and smelting, utilities, merchandising) was already 20 percent in 1930 and 25 percent in 1948. It rose to 36 percent by the late 1960s, but has since receded to about 30 percent. In 1975, fully 55 percent of the capital in manufacturing was controlled outside Canada, as was 72 per cent of that in petroleum and gas, and 58 percent in other mining. These figures exceed those of other developed countries, although there have been striking increases in recent decades. About 80 percent of the direct invest ment capital in Canada is from the United States. Recently, Canadians have xi xii FOREWORD become aware of a surge of Canadian direct investment abroad, which on a flow basis has exceeded inflows (exclusive of retained earnings) for most of the 1970s.

The Private Planning Association of Canada initiated the Atlantic Economic Studies Program to study the implications for Canada of trade liberalization and closer economic integration among the nations bordering the North Atlantic. Over twenty studies by leading economists, which point out the significance of international trade for the structure and growth of the Canadian economy, have been published in a series of thirteen volumes. This is the last in the series, and it summarizes the conclusions expressed in the previous studies in chapters dealing with such topics as the growth of world markets and changing trade patterns, free trade alternatives for Canada, and the structure of the Canadian economy.

As the world economy is becoming increasingly global in nature, thefuture of Canada's welfare will directly depend on thecountry's response and reaction to a wide range of economic regimeswhich govern the international economy. This volume is an important andtimely analysis of past and current Canadian policies toward both theformal and less formal arrangements which regulate such areas asinternational trade and financial transactions, international serviceindustries, fisheries resources, and the environment. Often influencedby domestic political concerns and its relations with the UnitedStates, Canada has, as the authors point out, exhibited a high degreeof variation in its responses to these regimes. Canadian Foreign Policyand International Economic Regimes addresses a broad range of foreigneconomic policies not generally considered in the foreign policyliterature. Interdisciplinary in its approach, it will be of interestto those in political science and public policy, economics, and law, aswell as to those involved in international business.