Central Asian Security Trends

The war in Afghanistan has added considerably to the strategic significance of Central Asia due to its proximity to the conflict. Moreover, the continuation of the war increasingly involves the vital interests of many other actors other than the U.S. and NATO forces currently there. This monograph, taken from SSI's conference ("Contemporary Issues in International Security") with European and Russian scholars in 2010, provides a comprehensive analysis of the means and objectives of Russia's involvement in Central Asia. It provides Russian perspectives concerning the other actors in Central Asia and how Moscow views the policy significance of those efforts, and a French analysis of the strategic situation evolving there. For obvious reasons: the war in Afghanistan, proximity to major global actors, large energy holdings, and for less obvious reasons, i.e., that possibility that domestic instability in one or more of these states could spread to other Muslim states as we now see in the Arab revolutions of 2011, Central Asia is an increasingly important and interesting region.

This volume is the first comprehensive scholarly analysis of the strategic reconfiguration of Central Asia as Russia has become more disengaged from the nations in the region and as these nations have developed new relations to the south, east, and west. The international implications are enormous because of the rich energy sources—oil and natural gas—located in the Caspian Sea area. The authors assess a variety of internal security policy challenges confronting these states—for example, the potential for conflict arising from such factors as a mixed ethnic population, resource scarcity, particularly in relation to water management, and an Islamic revival. They also examine the security policy content of relations between the Central Asian states and regional and international powers—specifically the stakes, interests, and policies of Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the United States. These internal challenges and the evolution of relations with external powers may result in new cooperative relationships, but they may also lead to destabilizing rivalry and interstate enmity in Central Asia. It is important to identify new patterns of relevance for future security cooperation in the region, but the potential for a new security system or for new institutions to manage security in the region remains uncertain. These issues are explored by a team of prominent specialists from Western Europe, the United States, Russia and China.

The war in Afghanistan has made Central Asia an ever more important strategic theater and one over which many states compete to exert influence. This monograph comprehensively analyzes Russia's efforts to exert its influence in the region through 2010

On January 25-26, 2010, SSI organized a conference entitled, "Contemporary issues in International Security," at the Finnish embassy in Washington, DC. This was the second in what we hoped will be annual conferences bringing together U.S., European, and Russian scholars and experts to discuss such issues in an open forum. The importance of such regular dialogues among experts is well known, and the benefits of these discussions are considerable. Just as we published the papers of the 2008 conference in 2009 (Stephen J. Blank, ed., Prospects for U.S.-Russian Security Cooperation, Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2009), we are doing so now. However, in this case, we are publishing the papers on a panel-by-panel basis. The papers collected in this volume pertain to Central Asia. Indeed, they offer us two foreign views of the strategic situation evolving there-a Russian and a French analysis. For obvious reasons: the war in Afghanistan, proximity to major global actors, large energy holdings, and for less obvious reason, i.e., the possibility that domestic instability in one or more of these states could spread to other Muslim states as we now see in the Arab revolutions of 2011, Central Asia is an increasingly important and interesting strategic region. As such, it merits sustained critical attention and analysis of the sort we are presenting here and that we have presented in the past. We also intend to continue doing so in the future. Yet for all of Central Asia's growing importance, it is a hard area to grasp analytically. To nonspecialists, it is likely to be something of a terra incognita, an unknown region, whose landmarks impart a sense of unfamiliarity, even unease, to those coming from the outside to try and understand it. Yet, at the same time, even for specialists, its reality is elusive and debates abound as to the nature of its domestic politics in both individual states and across the region. Moreover, the question of the stability of either individual states or of the region, a key question for foreign policymakers and analysts, is one of the most contested of the questions currently being debated. Many analysts have accepted what has become a paradigm: that these states are fundamentally precarious due to internal cleavages between social and ethnic groups, face potentially devastating environmental and economic hazards, are fundamentally misgoverned autocracies that will inevitably explode sooner or later, and carry within them the threat of Islamic fundamentalist and terrorist forces coming to power as a result of pervasive misrule. However, more recently it has become clear that Central Asian governments (not surprisingly) resent this characterization of their efforts and point to 20 years of stability-often against all predictions-as testimony for their capacity for growth and stability. Obviously, we cannot give a definitive answer to these questions in the space of a single collection of essays. But the point of these essays, and of the panel from which they have sprung, is to encourage our readers to take a more lively interest in this region whose strategic future is increasingly entangled with U.S. interests and those of key allies and other major international actors. As September 11, 2001, showed, threats originating here can reach out and touch the United States. Certainly they can also reach out to Europe as subsequent terror attacks show. For this reason, we hope that the essays presented here, as well as our previous efforts to understand trends in this region and what will be future publications along this line, will help to enlighten policymakers and planners, as well as specialists and other readers about the growing importance of the region and the increased necessity of obtaining a deeper understanding of its evolution.

The papers collected in this volume pertain to Central Asia. Indeed, they offer us two foreign views of the strategic situation evolving there-a Russian and a French analysis. For obvious reasons: the war in Afghanistan, proximity to major global actors, large energy holdings, and for less obvious reason, i.e., the possibility that domestic instability in one or more of these states could spread to other Muslim states as we now see in the Arab revolutions of 2011, Central Asia is an increasingly important and interesting strategic region. As such, it merits sustained critical attention and analysis of the sort we are presenting here and that we have presented in the past. We also intend to continue doing so in the future. Yet for all of Central Asia's growing importance, it is a hard area to grasp analytically. To nonspecialists, it is likely to be something of a terra incognita, an unknown region, whose landmarks impart a sense of unfamiliarity, even unease, to those coming from the outside to try and understand it. Yet, at the same time, even for specialists, its reality is elusive and debates abound as to the nature of its domestic politics in both individual states and across the region. Moreover, the question of the stability of either individual states or of the region, a key question for foreign policymakers and analysts, is one of the most contested of the questions currently being debated.

Contents: (1) Intro.; (2) Central Asia¿s (CA) External Security Context; (3) Security Problems and Progress: Islamic Extremism and Terrorism; Terrorist Activities; Attacks in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan; Incursions into Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan; Civil War in Tajikistan; Border Tensions; Crime and Corruption; Economic and Defense Security; The Collective Security Treaty Org.; Water Resources; Energy and Transport; Illegal Narcotics Production, Use, and Trafficking; (4) Implications for U.S. Interests: Reactions to U.S.-Led Coalition Actions in Iraq; Military Coop.; Closure of Karshi-Khanabad; Emphasis on Kazakhstan as Strategic Partner; Manas Airbase in Kyrgyzstan; Counter-Narcotics Aid; (5) Issues for Congress: Should the U.S. Play a Prominent Role in CA?

The present study offers an assessment of security concerns in Central Asia after the collapse of Soviet Union in 1991. It deals with the transition period for the five Central Asian States from the communist system to a democratic and pluralistic one. Essentially, the focus of the writer is on bilateral, multilateral and international commitments of these States to ensure peace and security in the region. The withdrawal of nuclear warheads from Kazakhstan, collective security formula, bilateral agreements and the role of the big powers all make an interesting study. The author has discussed these concerns in the context of the stance of neighbouring States vis-a-vis Central Asia. Economic interests also figure wherever necessary. This work is highly useful to those who would like to concentrate on any aspect of history in Central Asia and adjoining regions in the post-Soviet period.