China S Future Nuclear Submarine Force

One of the key concerns of naval strategists and planners today is the nature of the Chinese geostrategic challenge. Conceding that no one can know for certain China s intentions in terms of future conflict, the editors of this hot-topic book argue that the trajectory of Chinese nuclear propulsion for submarines may be one of the best single indicators of China s ambitions of global military power. Nuclear submarines, with their unparalleled survivability, remain ideal platforms for persistent operations in far-flung sea areas and offer an efficient means for China to project power. This collection of essays presents the latest thinking of leading experts on the emergence of a modern nuclear submarine fleet in China. Each contribution is packed with authoritative data and cogent analysis. The book has been compiled by four professors and analysts at the U.S. Naval War College who are co-founders of the college s recently established China Maritime Studies Institute. Given the opaque nature of China s undersea warfare development, readers will benefit from this penetrating investigation that considers the potential impact of even the most revolutionary changes in Chinese nuclear submarine capabilities. The editors believe that to ignore such possibilities would be the height of strategic folly and represent inexcusable negligence in terms of U.S. national defense. Anyone who is interested in the future of the U.S. Navy and the defense of the United States will find this book to be essential reading.

Relations between Washington and Beijing improved swiftly in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, especially in comparison to the nadir that had been reached during the April 2001 EP-3 incident. This new tide of cooperation has included counterterrorism initiatives, regional partnership in such complex situations as Afghanistan and North Korea, and even some modest agreement on the importance of maintaining the status quo with respect to Taiwan's status. A strong foundation for this strategic cooperation is, of course, a burgeoning trade relationship, which received a further boost from China's entry into the World Trade Organization in November 2001. In 2003, trade between the United States and China amounted to $191.7 billion, up 23.2 percent from 2002. Remarkably, the total for 2003 was more than double the figure for 1998. The United States is China's second most important trading partner nation (Japan is first). Many reasonable strategists, observing this data, consider armed conflict between Washington and Beijing impossible, given the economic losses that both would incur almost immediately. Unfortunately, history has not been kind to the school of theorizing, known as commercial liberalism, which holds that economic interdependence prevents conflict. Indeed, the belligerent powers prior to both world wars had achieved impressive levels of economic interdependence.

?Provides cutting-edge empirical research on a difficult strategic question, while also situating the issue within a nuanced discussion of recent Chinese history and intellectual traditions. China?s Nuclear Future contributes much to a new understanding of China?s nuclear policy past, present, and future.? ?Andrew Oros, Washington CollegeIn the face of significant changes in the contemporary geopolitical environment, China?s longstanding policy of maintaining a minimal nuclear stockpile may also be shifting. China?s Nuclear Future provides a comprehensive overview of both the evolution of China?s nuclear policy and the strategic implications of current developments.The authors examine a full range of issues, from China?s rising economic fortunes to the impact of the U.S.-led war on terror. Their assessment of the drivers and constraints that are transforming China?s nuclear posture is key to understanding not only the country?s possible nuclear futures, but also the broader issue of its role in world politics.Paul J. Bolt is professor of political science at the U.S. Air Force Academy. Albert S. Willner, Colonel, U.S. Army, taught in the Department of Social Sciences at the U.S. Military Academy in 2000-2004; at present, he is pending assignment as the Chief of the Liaison Affairs Section at the American Institute in Taiwan. Contents: China?s Nuclear Future in a Changing Environment?the Editors. Culture, Strategy, and Security?C.A. Cleary. Evolving Nuclear Doctrine?E.S. Medeiros. Strategic Force Modernization?P.C. Saunders and J. Yuan. Beijing?s Perceptions of U.S. Intentions?R.N. Montaperto. The Potential Flashpoint: Taiwan?T. Wai. Alternative Futures?B. Roberts.

Nations in the Asia-Pacific region are modernizing their naval fleets, and many are choosing to use submarines as the centerpiece of these plans. China, one of the most influential nations in the region, has upgraded its submarine force, and it is important to analyze the impact this modernization effort will have on the stability of the region. India, Japan, and the United States are closely watching the People's Liberation Army Navy's (PLAN's) submarine force to understand better China's intentions writ large, and the implications they have for security. All three nations have reacted in response to the PLAN's modernization goal. This study concludes that the most effective policy going forward would be a balanced combination of both hard and soft hedging (including dialogue with the PLAN) to defend allied security interests but also to provide avenues for promoting future regional stability. CHAPTER I - INTRODUCTION * A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION * B. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RESEARCH QUESTION * C. LITERATURE REVIEW * 1. Defining a Modernized Submarine Fleet * 2. The PLAN Submarine Modernization * 3. Literature from India * 4. Literature from Japan * 5. Literature from the United States * D. RELEVANT SECURITY CONCEPTS * 1. Security Dilemma * 2. Dangers of Submarines * 3. Ways to Respond to the Submarine Threat * E. POTENTIAL EXPLANATIONS, HYPOTHESIS, AND ROADMAP * CHAPTER II - CHINESE SUBMARINE MODERNIZATION * A. BACKGROUND * B. TYPES OF SUBMARINES * 1. Conventional Submarines * a. SS Type 035, Ming-class * b. SSG Type 039/039G, Song-class * c. SSG Kilo-class (Project 877EKM/636) * d. SSG Type 039A/041 Yuan-Class * 2. Nuclear Submarines * a. SSBN Type 094, Jin-class * b. SSN Type 091, Han-class * c. SSN Type 093, Shang-class * 3. Air Independent Propulsion Submarines * 4. PLAN Submarine Growth * C. OPERATIONS * D. SUBMARINE WEAPONS PAYLOAD * 1. SLBM JL-2 Missiles * 2. SS-N-27 Sizzler * 3. Yu-5 Torpedo * E. CONCLUSIONS * CHAPTER III - INDIA'S VIEWS ON CHINESE SUBMARINE MODERNIZATION * A. SINO-INDIAN DISPUTES * 1. Border Dispute * 2. China's Relationship with Pakistan * B. INDIA'S RESPONSE TO CHINESE SUBMARINES * 1. Hard Hedging * a. Modernization of Anti-Submarine Ships * b. Anti-submarine Aircraft * c. Submarines * d. Exercises * 2. Soft Hedging * C. INDIA'S MARITIME INTERESTS * 1. Economic Security * a. Navy's Security Role * b. Strategic Location * 2. Natural Resources * D. CONCLUSION * CHAPTER IV - JAPANESE VIEWS ON CHINESE SUBMARINE MODERNIZATION * A. SINO-JAPANESE RIVALRY * 1. Misaligned Memories * 2. Disputed Islands * B. JAPAN'S RESPONSE TO CHINESE SUBMARINES * 1. Hard Hedging * 2. Soft Hedging * C. NAVAL STRATEGY IN CONFLICT * 1. Economic Development * 2. Environment of Stability, Transparency and Predictability * D. CONCLUSION * CHAPTER V - UNITED STATES' VIEWS ON CHINESE SUBMARINE MODERNIZATION * A. DIVERGENT SECURITY CONCERNS * 1. U.S. Alliances * 2. Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia * 3. EP-3 Aircraft Incident * 4. USNS Impeccable Incident * B. U.S. RESPONSE TO CHINESE SUBMARINE MODERNIZATION * 1. Threat Perceptions Seen from the United States * 2. Hard Hedging * C. CONCLUSION * CHAPTER VI - RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION * A. U.S. HARD HEDGING * B. U.S. AND JAPAN HARD HEDGING * C. INDIA HARD HEDGING * D. SOFT HEDGING * E. CONCLUSION

"This volume brings together an international group of distinguished scholars to provide a fresh assessment of China's strategic military capabilities, doctrines, and perceptions in light of rapidly advancing technologies, an expanding and modernizing nuclear arsenal, and increased great-power competition with the United States. China's strategic weapons are its expanding nuclear arsenal and emerging conventional weapons systems such as hypersonic missiles and anti-satellite missiles. China's strategic arsenal is important because of how it affects the dynamics of US-China relations and the relationship between China and its neighbors. Without a doubt China's strategic arsenal is growing in size and sophistication, but this book also examines key uncertainties. Will China's new capabilities and confidence lead it to be more assertive or take more risks? Will China's nuclear traditions (i.e., no first use) change as the strategic balance improves? Will China's approach to military competition in the domains of cyberspace and outer space be guided by a notion of strategic stability or not? Will there be a strategic arms race with the United States? The goal of this book is to update our understanding of these issues and to make predictions about how these dynamics may play out"--

Alfred Thayer Mahan has been called America’s nineteenth-century ‘evangelist of sea power’ and the intellectual father of the modern US Navy. His theories have a timeless appeal, and Chinese analysts now routinely invoke Mahan’s writings, exhorting their nation to build a powerful navy. Economics is the prime motivation for maritime reorientation, and securing the sea lanes that convey foreign energy supplies and other commodities now ranks near or at the top of China’s list of military priorities. This book is the first systematic effort to test the interplay between Western military thought and Chinese strategic traditions vis-à-vis the nautical arena. It uncovers some universal axioms about how theories of sea power influence the behaviour of great powers and examines how Mahanian thought could shape China’s encounters on the high seas. Empirical analysis adds a new dimension to the current debate over China’s ‘rise’ and its importance for international relations. The findings also clarify the possible implications of China’s maritime rise for the United States, and illuminate how the two powers can manage their bilateral interactions on the high seas. Chinese Naval Strategy in the 21st Century will be of much interest to students of naval history, Chinese politics and security studies.

The rapid modernization of the Chinese Navy is a well-documented reality of the post-Cold War world. In two decades, the People's Liberation Army Navy has evolved from a backward force composed of obsolete platforms into a reasonably modern fleet whose growth is significantly shaking the naval balance in East Asia. The rationale behind China's contemporary rise at sea remains, however, difficult to grasp and few people have tried to see how the current structure of the international system has shaped Chinese choices. This book makes sense of Chinese priorities in its naval modernization in a 'robust' offensive realist framework. Drawing on Barry Posen's works on sources of military doctrine, it argues that the orientation of Beijing's choices concerning its naval forces can essentially be explained by China's position as a potential regional hegemon. Yves-Heng Lim highlights how a rising state develops naval power to fulfil its security objectives, a theoretical perspective that goes farther than the sole Chinese case.

This is a fascinating insight into China’s strategic abilities and ambitions, probing the real depths of its plans for the twenty-first century. China's Rising Sea Power explores similarities between China’s strategic outlook today and that of earlier continental powers whose submarine fleets challenged dominant maritime powers for regional hegemony: Germany in two World Wars and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Using insights from classical naval strategic theory, Peter Howarth examines Beijing’s strategic logic in making tactical submarines the keystone of China’s naval force structure. He also investigates the influence of Soviet naval strategy and ancient Chinese military thought on the PLA Navy’s strategic culture, contending that China’s increasingly capable submarine fleet could play a key role in Beijing’s use of force to resolve the Taiwan issue. This book will be of great interest to all students and scholars of security and strategic studies, Asian politics, geopolitics and military (naval) strategy.