Chinese Strategy And Military Modernization In 2015

China’s emergence as a global economic superpower, and as a major regional military power in Asia and the Pacific, has had a major impact on its relations with the United States and its neighbors. China was the driving factor in the new strategy the United States announced in 2012 that called for a “rebalance” of U.S. forces to the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, China’s actions on its borders, in the East China Sea, and in the South China Sea have shown that it is steadily expanding its geopolitical role in the Pacific and having a steadily increasing impact on the strategy and military developments in other Asian powers.

This report from the CSIS Burke Chair in Strategy examines trends in Chinese strategy, military spending, and military forces based on Chinese defense white papers and other official Chinese sources; US reporting by the Department of Defense and other defense agencies; and other government sources, including Japanese and Korean defense white papers and the International Monetary Fund.

Examining Chinese intentions and the means they have to achieve those intentions, this volume begins with Roger Ames's essay analyzing the Chinese military through from the earliest times

This report udates the analysis of the trends in Chinese military strategy and forces. This is the final draft before publication, and any comments will be gratefully received. The goal behind this report is not to present the authors' view of the balance, but rather to provide the basis for an unclassified dialogue on the military developments in China, including the size and structure of the country's current and planned military forces. It draws on official US, Chinese, and other Asian official reporting, as well as the work of other scholars and the data bases developed by the IISS and Jane's in an effort to compare different views of Chinese strategy and military developments, and is meant to provide US, Chinese, and other analysts with a better basis for understanding Western estimates of the changes in Chinese force strength and force quality.

China's rise to global economic and strategic eminence, with the potential for achieving pre-eminence in the greater-Asian region, is one of the defining characteristics of the post-Cold War period. This work offers a basic understanding of the military-strategic basis and trajectory of a rising China, provides background, and outlines current and future issues concerning China's rise in strategic-military influence. The next decade may witness China's assertion of military or strategic pressure on Japan, the Korean Peninsula, India, the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, Central Asia, or even on behalf of future allies in Africa and Latin America. While conflict is not a foregone conclusion, as indicated by China's increasing participation in many benign international organizations, it is a fact that China's leadership will pursue its interests as it sees them, which may not always coincide with those of the United States, its friends, and allies. Until now, no single volume has existed that provides an authoritative, comprehensive, and concise description of China's evolving geo-strategy or of how China is transforming its military to carry out this strategy. Fisher examines how China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) remains critical to the existence of the Chinese Communist government and looks at China's political and military actions designed to protect its expanded strategic interests in both the Asia-Pacific and Central to Near-Asian regions. Using open sources, including over a decade of unique interview sources, Fisher documents China's efforts to build a larger nuclear force that may soon be protected by missile defenses, modern high technology systems for space, air, and naval forces, and how China is now beginning to assemble naval, air, and ground forces for future power projection missions. His work also examines how the United States and other governments simultaneously seek greater engagement with China on strategic concerns, while hedging against its rising power. Although China faces both internal and external constraints on its rise to global eminence, it cannot be denied that China's government is pursuing a far-reaching strategic agenda.

China's strides towards the creation of a formidable military posture, backed by strong economic growth, demonstrate a resolve to assert its claim towards becoming an Asian superpower. By opting to showcase its military prowess to the world, the Chinese armed forces have signalled that they have come a long way from what was essentially a rustic and bucolic 'Red Army' that waged a 'People's War' six decades ago. The modernisation programme undertaken by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) can be interpreted as the foundation of deterrence to attain the objectives of military strategy. Today, the Chinese armed forces are preparing to fight small-scale, high-intensity, regional combat and military operations in the future. At the same time, China seeks to deter or prevent their outbreak decisively through the possession of an adequate deterrent force and the determination to use that force. Robust military modernisation of the PLA represents a contrasting facet to the tall claims made by China, in so far as its 'peaceful rise' campaign is concerned. It is difficult to reconcile these rather opposing, while equally reinforcing, ideas. As a consequence, the entire debate on the impending "China threat" (Zhongguo weixie) theory has progressively gained significance within the Asian continent and beyond.

Since the fall of 1976, China's military leadership has initiated the first sustained reappraisal of its military force structure and defense strategies and policies in close to twenty years. This essay will briefly assess these recent policy changes and their potential consequences. There are four objectives: to identify the political, military, strategic, and economic context of these changes; to explore the areas of particular concern to the military leadership; to evaluate how far-reaching the possibilities for policy change might actually be; and to consider the potential implications of these changes for China's overall political and military role in East Asia during the 1980s.