Chinese Views Of Future Warfare

An introduction to the works of authoritative and innovative Chinese authors whose writings focus on the future of the Chinese military. These carefully selected, representative essays make Chinese military thinking more accessible to western readers. It reveals, for example, China's keen interest in the Revolution in military affairs. This volume is an important starting point for understanding China's future military modernization. "Must reading for every executive of every Western firm doing business in China." "Readers will be impressed by China's ambitions in space, information warfare, stealth, and robots, in future warfare." Photos.

Michael Pillsbury's new book ... is must reading for every executive of every Western firm doing business in China, and every Member of Congress.... Readers will be impressed ... by China's ambitions in space, information warfare, stealth, and robots, in future warfare.... No one with serious interests in East Asia can afford not to have read this book." Robert Ellsworth, Former Deputy Defense Secretary "American relations with the People's Republic of China have now become the single most critical bilateral relationship in the world. On it rests the stability of East Asia, and it represents the most significant challenge to the effectiveness of U.S. foreign policy, Yet far too little is known about China, and in particular how the Chinese military think about the future. Michael Pillsbury has performed a signal service in selecting, translating, and interpreting these revealing and hard-to-obtain writings by senior Chinese officers, The reader is in for a surprise. Rather than parading the tired slogans of People's War, these analysts examine a military future marked by 'information deterrence', 'crippling attacks on information systems' and similar notions and by a search for 'new measures of effectiveness.' The future remains uncertain, but the best preparation--- as Sun Tzu might say--- is to understand the mind of those with whom we must deal." James Schlesinger, Former Director of Central Intelligence and Former Secretary of Defense "This book reflects the keen interest that its sponsor, the Director of Net Assessment, Andy Marshall, has shown in Chinese views of a potential revolution in military affairs. The translation and publication of these articles enhance our understanding of how some of China's authoritative military strategists see the revolution in military affairs in the 21st century." William Perry Former Secretary of Defense

This study offers over 600 selected quotations from the writings of over 200 Chinese authors published from 1994 to 1999. Analysis and interpretation are kept to a minimum so that the Chinese may speak for themselves. Many Chinese scholars assisted with this study by providing hard-to-get books and articles unfamiliar to most Westerners. Half the authors were interviewed in China. They explained some of the viewpoints in recent debates about the future security environment. Debates in China are generally concealed, and frequently authors pretend they do not exist. However muted they may be, China's debates about the future nevertheless exist and merit attention if we are to understand the premises of China's national strategy and set a baseline from which to measure any future change in these premises.

China's explosive economy has financed her recent modernization program. Not only is China modernizing her armed forces but many of her senior military authors are advocating a RMA and expounding on its potential value to future warfare. Due to China's existing technology gap, there are skeptics in the United States who doubt that she will be able to keep pace with the American conception of RMA. However, the Chinese view of RMA may be completely different from the Western view. With a regional strategic and operational focus and employing the fruits of RMA, the Chinese may be able to develop highly complex, asymmetrical capabilities and operational techniques that deny area access to a U.S. military force, thus limiting American ability to influence the situation. The results of this analysis suggest that even though China will be unable to completely technically with America for a least a decade and maybe longer, nevertheless, the U.S. needs to develop plans, concepts, and countermeasures to defeat future Chinese asymmetrical warfare that is based on rapid advances in technology.

War is coming again to the Pacific. It is coming for the same reasons is came in 1941. Then, Japan was a close friend and trading partner to the United States. Japan was growing rapidly into the strongest economic power in that part of the world. However, they had three major domestic problems: a lack of natural resources that others had, a huge population growing beyond their ability to manage, and the power of the United States to dictate what they did. To resolve first two, they had to limit the third. China is now in the same position. President Obama’s apologetic approach to international relations allowed China to limit American power by asking for and receiving nearly any negotiation terms they desired, pushing America into deep debtor status with China holding the IOU’s. Under President Trump, the tide has dramatically turned. In 1941, to limit the power of the United States in the Pacific, the Japanese sent a fleet to Pearl Harbor to cripple the US Pacific Fleet. They failed. China learned from this major mistake, or so they believe. China is now implementing a plan for doing something similar with the goal of achieving the same end with the nuclear threat of North Korea aimed at Hawaii. The “mistaken” missile alert, given how the alert is triggered and the immediate demands of certain politicians there, make it obvious that “this was no drill.” Rather, it is a message to America. They believe they can hand President Trump, and the allies, a fait accompli; and it is obvious for those willing to open their eyes to the facts. China is telling America to obey or face another, nuclear Pearl Harbor. Unbelievable? Only if one decides to ignore the signs that are there for all to see. In the 1930’s America ignored the signs in Europe and the western Pacific and the China Seas right up to December 7th, 1941. History is repeating itself in the same locations and for the same reasons; resources, empire, and global control. In the Intelligence Community, there is a process known as OSINT or open source intelligence where an analyst establishes a hypothesis, then begins to develop indications of whether the hypothesis is valid or not. Using open sources, the analyst evaluates the information, the sources, the statements by governments and the actions by those same governments to develop a picture or scenario. This work is such a scenario of the South China Sea, and it is a scary one as it points directly to the events of 70 years ago to the actions of today with perfect accuracy.

This is the most up-to-date assessment of all aspects of the People's Liberation Army. Leading specialists on the Chinese military cover military leadership, defense doctrine and military readiness, preparations for high-tech warfare, military expenditure, military logistics, the scientific and technological base for defense procurement, and China's security concerns in Northeast Asia.