Competing Arctic Futures

This edited collection explores how narratives about the future of the Arctic have been produced historically up until the present day. The contemporary deterministic and monolithic narrative is shown to be only one of several possible ways forward. This book problematizes the dominant prediction that there will be increased shipping and resource extraction as the ice melts and shows how this seemingly inevitable future has consequences for the action that can be taken in the present. This collection looks to historical projections about the future of the Arctic, evaluating why some voices have been heard and championed, while others remain marginalised. It questions how these historical perspectives have shaped resource allocation and governance structures to understand the forces behind change in the Arctic region. Considering the history of individuals and institutions, their political and economic networks and their perceived power, the essays in this collection offer new perspectives on how the future of the Arctic has been produced and communicated.

The Arctic, long described as the world’s last frontier, is quickly becoming our first frontier—the front line in a world of more diffuse power, sharper geopolitical competition, and deepening interdependencies between people and nature. A space of often-bitter cold, the Arctic is the fastest-warming place on earth. It is humanity’s canary in the coal mine—an early warning sign of the world’s climate crisis. The Arctic “regime” has pioneered many innovative means of governance among often-contentious state and non-state actors. Instead of being the “last white dot on the map,” the Arctic is where the contours of our rapidly evolving world may first be glimpsed. In this book, scholars and practitioners—from Anchorage to Moscow, from Nuuk to Hong Kong—explore the huge political, legal, social, economic, geostrategic and environmental challenges confronting the Arctic regime, and what this means for the future of world order.

Long at the margins of global affairs and at the edge of our mental map of the world, the Arctic has found its way to the center of the issues which will challenge and define our world in the twenty-first century: energy security and the struggle for natural resources, climate change and its uncertain speed and consequences, the return of great power competition, the remaking of global trade patterns… In The Future History of the Arctic, geopolitics expert Charles Emmerson weaves together the history of the region with reportage and reflection, revealing a vast and complex area of the globe, loaded with opportunity and rich in challenges. He defines the forces which have shaped the Arctic's history and introduces the players in politics, business, science and society who are struggling to mold its future. The Arctic is coming of age. This engrossing book tells the story of how that is happening and how it might happen—through the stories of those who live there, those who study it, and those who will determine its destiny.

Long at the margins of global affairs and at the edge of our mental map of the world, the Arctic has found its way to the center of the issues which will challenge and define our world in the twenty-first century: energy security and the struggle for natural resources, climate change and its uncertain speed and consequences, the return of great power competition, the remaking of global trade patterns… In The Future History of the Arctic, geopolitics expert Charles Emmerson weaves together the history of the region with reportage and reflection, revealing a vast and complex area of the globe, loaded with opportunity and rich in challenges. He defines the forces which have shaped the Arctic's history and introduces the players in politics, business, science and society who are struggling to mold its future. The Arctic is coming of age. This engrossing book tells the story of how that is happening and how it might happen—through the stories of those who live there, those who study it, and those who will determine its destiny.

Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.

Over the last few years Asian governments have taken a stronger approach to the Arctic, culminating with permanent-observer status to the Arctic Council for China, India, Japan, Singapore and South-Korea in May 2013. This groundbreaking book brings together the latest research in emerging Asian interests for the Arctic region, and the implications thereof this change has for the future. This book covers Arctic shipping, fisheries and mineral extraction. It analyzes key Asian countries' policies, positions and activities. The book also demonstrates that there are common aspects which attract Asian countries to the Arctic, such as a concern for climate change, but there are also important national differences. From the Arctic Council to UNCLOS, Arctic governance mechanisms are thoroughly presented and analyzed. Contributed by scholars from both Asia — China, India, Japan, Singapore and South-Korea — as well as Arctic countries — Norway and USA, this book is an essential source of reference for both academics and government professionals, as well for the readers keen on understanding the dynamic change in the Arctic region. Contents:Governance and Cooperation:Adaptive Governance for a Changing Arctic (Oran R Young)The Arctic Governance and the Interactions between Arctic and Non-Arctic Countries (YANG Jian)Can Asian Involvement Strengthen Arctic Governance? (Olav Schram Stokke)High North: High Politics or Low Tension? Cooperation and Conflict in the Arctic (Jo Inge Bekkevold)Analysis of International Arctic Cooperation Mechanisms among the Nordic Countries (CHENG Baozhi)Economic Development:International Use of the Northern Sea Route — Trends and Prospects (Arild Moe)A Comparative Study of the Administration of the Canadian Northwest Passage and the Russian Northern Sea Route (ZOU Leilei and HUANG Shuolin)Governance and Ownership of the Arctic Ocean: Living Resources and the Continental Shelf (Njord Wegge)Arctic Mining: Asian Interests and Opportunities (Iselin Stensdal)Asia in the Arctic:Japan's Arctic Policy Development: From Engagement to a Strategy (Fujio Ohnishi)India's Arctic Attention (Uttam Sinha)Asian Economic Interests in the Arctic — Singapore's Perspective (CHEN Gang)Changes in the Arctic and China's Participation in Arctic Governance (ZHANG Pei and YANG Jian)The Cooperation and Competition between China, Japan, and South Korea in the Arctic (GONG Keyu)Findings and Challenges of the North Pacific Arctic Conference (Jong-Deog Kim)The Future of the Arctic and the Asian Countries: Concluding Remarks (Iselin Stensdal) Readership: Academics, undergraduate and graduate students, professionals, and policy makers interested in major Asian countries' Arctic interests, Arctic governance, economic development in the Arctic regions, Northern Sea Route and Northwestern Passage. Key Features:Addresses a topic which has been previously little covered, but is of growing global interestRepresents one of the first efforts to bring all relevant Asian countries together to discuss Arctic issuesContributed by Scholars from Asia and Arctic CountriesKeywords:Arctic;Asia;China;India;Japan;Singapore;South Korea;Governance;Regional Politics;Cooperation;Conflict;Economy;Shipping;Mining;Fishery;Northern Sea Route;Northwestern Passage

In July 2018, CSIS embarked on a major analytical assessment that centered on the following research question: What will be the strategic consequences for the United States by 2050 if America’s two near-peer military competitors, China and Russia, continue to develop their long-term economic and security interests in the Arctic, but the United States does not? Russia’s growing economic and military ambitions in the Arctic, as well as China’s increased physical presence in the region, underscore that both nations have long-term strategic designs for the Arctic region. Data analysis, satellite imagery, and scenario development all demonstrate the continued growth of Russian and Chinese presence in the Arctic and heighten the sense of stasis in the U.S. military and economic presence. Unless the United States wishes to lose access to portions of the Arctic and have increasingly diminished capabilities to defend and deter attack against the homeland, the United States must return to the Arctic.

The legacies of borders are far-reaching for Indigenous Peoples. This collection offers new ways of understanding borders by departing from statist approaches to territoriality. Bringing together the fields of border studies, human rights, international relations, and Indigenous studies, it features a wide range of voices from across academia, public policy, and civil society. The contributors explore the profound and varying impacts of borders on Indigenous Peoples around the world and the ways borders are challenged and worked around. From Bangladesh’s colonially imposed militarized borders to resource extraction in the Russian Arctic and along the Colombia-Ecuador border to the transportation of toxic pesticides from the United States to Mexico, the chapters examine sovereignty, power, and obstructions to Indigenous rights and self-determination as well as globalization and the economic impacts of borders. Indigenous Peoples and Borders proposes future action that is informed by Indigenous Peoples’ voices, needs, and advocacy. Contributors. Tone Bleie, Andrea Carmen, Jacqueline Gillis, Rauna Kuokkanen, Elifuraha Laltaika, Sheryl Lightfoot, David Bruce MacDonald, Toa Elisa Maldonado Ruiz, Binalakshmi “Bina” Nepram, Melissa Z. Patel, Manoel B. do Prado Junior, Hana Shams Ahmed, Elsa Stamatopoulou, Liubov Suliandziga, Rodion Sulyandziga, Yifat Susskind, Erika M. Yamada