Cyclical Movements In The Balance Of Payments

This 1954 volume describes and analyses the course of short-period fluctuations in the British economy between 1833 and 1842.

This paper describes the connection between the need for financial statistics as an aid to monetary and financial policy. The essential unifying element between statistics and policy is, of course, theory—a coherent set of assumptions regarding the behavior of the economy. These assumptions will indicate how the economy is expected to respond to changes of particular variables on which policy action concentrates. The accounts of the money and banking and financial system can provide a large part of the required financing statistics in a highly reliable form. In all economies a large part of borrowing and lending is indirect. Among the financial institutions, the banking system stands out, not merely because of its relative magnitude but because of its ability to create its own liabilities. Both banks and life insurance companies grant credit; that is not where the difference lies. A simple model of the economy can be built on the basis of injections of income that can be observed from available statistics.

This is a timely review of the gold standard covering the 110 years of its operation until 1931, when Britain abandoned it in the midst of the Depression. Current dissatisfaction with floating rates of exchange has spurred interest in a return to a commodity standard. The studies in this volume were designed to gain a better understanding of the historical gold standard, but they also throw light on the question of whether restoring it today could help cure inflation, high interest rates, and low productivity growth. The volume includes a review of the literature on the classical gold standard; studies the experience with gold in England, Germany, Italy, Sweden, and Canada; and perspectives on international linkages and the stability of price-level trends under the gold standard. The articles and commentaries reflect strong, conflicting views among hte participants on issues of central bank behavior, purchasing-power an interest-rate parity, independent monetary policies, economic growth, the "Atlantic economy," and trends in commodity prices and long-term interest rates. This is a thoughtful and provocative book.

Technical Notes and Manuals are produced by IMF departments to expand the dissemination of their technical assistance advice. These papers present general advice and guidance, drawn in part from unpublished technical assistance reports, to a broader audience. This new series was launched in August 2009.