Earthquake Prediction State Of The Art

The debate about our capability or inability to predict earthquakes is shown in this book. Proponents of prediction methods make their cases, but critics point out shortcomings and an international panel prepared a list of significant earthquake precursors, that may be useful for prediction attempts.

The debate about our capability or inability to predict earthquakes is shown in this book. Proponents of prediction methods make their cases, but critics point out shortcomings and an international panel prepared a list of significant earthquake precursors, that may be useful for prediction attempts.

The vulnerability of our civilization to earthquakes is rapidly growing, rais ing earthquakes to the ranks of major threats faced by humankind. Earth quake prediction is necessary to reduce that threat by undertaking disaster preparedness measures. This is one of the critically urgent problems whose solution requires fundamental research. At the same time, prediction is a ma jor tool of basic science, a source of heuristic constraints and the final test of theories. This volume summarizes the state-of-the-art in earthquake prediction. Its following aspects are considered: - Existing prediction algorithms and the quality of predictions they pro vide. - Application of such predictions for damage reduction, given their current accuracy, so far limited. - Fundamental understanding of the lithosphere gained in earthquake prediction research. - Emerging possibilities for major improvements of earthquake prediction methods. - Potential implications for predicting other disasters, besides earthquakes. Methodologies. At the heart of the research described here is the inte gration of three methodologies: phenomenological analysis of observations; "universal" models of complex systems such as those considered in statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics; and Earth-specific models of tectonic fault networks. In addition, the theory of optimal control is used to link earthquake prediction with earthquake preparedness.

This book is devoted to diverse aspects of earthquake researches, especially to new achievements in seismicity that involves geosciences, assessment, and mitigation. Chapters contain advanced materials of detailed engineering investigations, which can help more clearly appreciate, predict, and manage different earthquake processes. Different research themes for diverse areas in the world are developed here, highlighting new methods of studies that lead to new results and models, which could be helpful for the earthquake risk. The presented and developed themes mainly concern wave's characterization and decomposition, recent seismic activity, assessment-mitigation, and engineering techniques. The book provides the state of the art on recent progress in earthquake engineering and management. The obtained results show a scientific progress that has an international scope and, consequently, should open perspectives to other still unresolved interesting aspects.

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Special Publications Series. Purpose. The Preliminary List of Significant Earthquake Precursors (the List) is intended to serve as a preliminary assessment of the state of the art in the identification of earthquake precursors which may be useful in earthquake prediction attempts. It will be updated periodically during the International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). Placing a precursor, a method, or a case history on this List does not guarantee that the reported anomaly was actually a genuine precursor, that the method works in general or that the case history is without shortcoming. A method is included on the List if the majority of the reviewers and panelists thought it more likely than not that the method may be useful for earthquake prediction. An individual case history is put on the List if the majority thought that it was more likely than not that the claimed anomaly was real and physically related to the mainshock. Similarly, the decision by the panel not to place an item on this list does not necessarily mean that it concludes that there is no value in that line of research. It only means that the majority of the reviewers and panelists thought that the work or the documentation was incomplete or had shortcomings to a degree that makes it more likely than not that the technique in its current state of development is not yet established as useful for earthquake prediction. Also we do not know at present to what extent precursors may be different in different tectonic settings. A method that appears promising or useless in one environment may not be so in another.