Evaluation Of Proposed Earthquake Precursors

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Special Publications Series. Purpose. The Preliminary List of Significant Earthquake Precursors (the List) is intended to serve as a preliminary assessment of the state of the art in the identification of earthquake precursors which may be useful in earthquake prediction attempts. It will be updated periodically during the International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). Placing a precursor, a method, or a case history on this List does not guarantee that the reported anomaly was actually a genuine precursor, that the method works in general or that the case history is without shortcoming. A method is included on the List if the majority of the reviewers and panelists thought it more likely than not that the method may be useful for earthquake prediction. An individual case history is put on the List if the majority thought that it was more likely than not that the claimed anomaly was real and physically related to the mainshock. Similarly, the decision by the panel not to place an item on this list does not necessarily mean that it concludes that there is no value in that line of research. It only means that the majority of the reviewers and panelists thought that the work or the documentation was incomplete or had shortcomings to a degree that makes it more likely than not that the technique in its current state of development is not yet established as useful for earthquake prediction. Also we do not know at present to what extent precursors may be different in different tectonic settings. A method that appears promising or useless in one environment may not be so in another.

Cover Image Credit: Zhaofei Liu and Ying Li From the Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China

The acronym VAN refers to Drs Varotsos, Alexopoulos and Nomicos, members of a group based in the University of Athens and led by Professor Varotsos (head of the Physics Department) which for over a decade has sought to use electric-field measurements between electrodes buried in the earth to predict earthquakes in Greece over periods of order one month or less. But is such “short-term” prediction achievable by the VAN approach (or by any other)? This book is an objective collection of the arguments for — and the counterarguments against — that approach, intended to help scientific readers arrive at their own answers to this important question, as well as to others (including that of VAN's “export” potential).

Pre-Earthquake signals are advanced warnings of a larger seismic event. A better understanding of these processes can help to predict the characteristics of the subsequent mainshock. Pre-Earthquake Processes: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction Studies presents the latest research on earthquake forecasting and prediction based on observations and physical modeling in China, Greece, Italy, France, Japan, Russia, Taiwan, and the United States. Volume highlights include: Describes the earthquake processes and the observed physical signals that precede them Explores the relationship between pre-earthquake activity and the characteristics of subsequent seismic events Encompasses physical, atmospheric, geochemical, and historical characteristics of pre-earthquakes Illustrates thermal infrared, seismo–ionospheric, and other satellite and ground-based pre-earthquake anomalies Applies these multidisciplinary data to earthquake forecasting and prediction Written for seismologists, geophysicists, geochemists, physical scientists, students and others, Pre-Earthquake Processes: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction Studies offers an essential resource for understanding the dynamics of pre-earthquake phenomena from an international and multidisciplinary perspective.

The debate about our capability or inability to predict earthquakes is shown in this book. Proponents of prediction methods make their cases, but critics point out shortcomings and an international panel prepared a list of significant earthquake precursors, that may be useful for prediction attempts.