Economic Evolution And Demographic Change

In recent years, population economics has become increasingly popular in both economic and policy analysis. For the inquiry into the long term development of an economy, the interaction between demographic change and economic activity cannot be neglected without omitting major aspects of the problems. This volume helps to further developments in theoretical and applied demographical economics covering the issues of demographic change and economic development. The interaction between demographic change and economic development in the long run is one central issue. One conjecture is that it is mainly the relative population pressure which controls the pace of economic development. However, econometric evidence presented in the book does not support this hypothesis. Other papers deal with the relationships between fertility and business cycle fluctuations, the timing of births, the efficiency in intergenerational transfers, the role of open economies for the population issue, historical perspectives of demographic change in Hungary and an outline of recent developments of applied modelling using input-output models, programming models or econometric techniques.

The articles collected in this volume have two features in common: they wantto integrate economics, demography and geography, and they want to overcome the stationary approach in modelling in favour of a dynamic one. The book is subdivided into three parts, where Part I is focussing on economic evolution, Part II on geographical development and Part III is related to demographic change. The present volume aims at providing a new look at this triangle in view of the classical background of discussions by introducing new research ideas focussing in nonlinear dynamics and stochastic modelling. Thus the main purpose of this book is to make a contribution to the interdisciplinary work needed to integrate the effortsbetween these three research fields and to serve as a research source in demonstrating the current state of art in dynamic modelling. The book isaddressed to social scientists in general, and those in particular with a background in economics, geographics and demographics. It should also be of interest to mathematicians, physicists, and systems analysts interested in model building and applications of nonlinear dynamics.

This report highlights the issues faced by local areas against the backdrop of policies or planning models that have directed local development in the past decades.

The effect of demography on economic performance has been the subject of intense debate in economics for nearly two centuries. In recent years opinion has swung between the Malthusian views of Coale and Hoover, and the cornucopian views of Julian Simon. Unfortunately, until recently, data weretoo weak and analytical models too limited to provide clear insights into the relationship. As a result, economists as a group have not been clear or conclusive.This volume, which is based on a collection of papers that heavily rely on data from the 1980s and 1990s and on new analytical approaches, sheds important new light on demographic--economic relationships, and it provides clearer policy conclusions than any recent work on the subject. In particular,evidence from developing countries throughout the world shows a pattern in recent decades that was not evident earlier: countries with higher rates of population growth have tended to see less economic growth. An analysis of the role of demography in the "Asian economic miracle" strongly suggeststhat changes in age structures resulting from declining fertility create a one-time "demographic gift" or window of opportunity, when the working age population has relatively few dependants, of either young or old age, to support. Countries which recognize and seize on this opportunity can, as theAsian tigers did, realize healthy bursts in economic output. But such results are by no means assured: only for countries with otherwise sound economic policies will the window of opportunity yield such dramatic results. Finally, several of the studies demonstrate the likelihood of a causalrelationship between high fertility and poverty. While the direction of causality is not always clear and very likely is reciprocal (poverty contributes to high fertility and high fertility reinforces poverty), the studies support the view that lower fertility at the country level helps create apath out of poverty for many families.Population Matters represents an important further step in our understanding of the contribution of population change to economic performance. As such, it will be a useful volume for policymakers both in developing countries and in international development agencies.

Recent studies show that almost all industrial countries have experienced dramatic decreases in both fertility and mortality rates. This situation has led to aging societies with economies that suffer from both a decline in the working population and a rise in fiscal deficits linked to increased government spending. East Asia exemplifies these trends, and this volume offers an in-depth look at how long-term demographic transitions have taken shape there and how they have affected the economy in the region. The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia assembles a group of experts to explore such topics as comparative demographic change, population aging, the rising cost of health care, and specific policy concerns in individual countries. The volume provides an overview of economic growth in East Asia as well as more specific studies on Japan, Korea, China, and Hong Kong. Offering important insights into the causes and consequences of this transition, this book will benefit students, researchers, and policy makers focused on East Asia as well as anyone concerned with similar trends elsewhere in the world.

The essays in this volume analyze the growing stresses of demographic trends in the United States and their implications for policymakers. They describe projections for U.S. birth rates, changing family patterns, age-dependency ratio, immigration, geographical distribution, income distribution, and international standing. This book was published under the auspices of the Committee for Economic Development in Washington, DC.

Recent approaches to economic demography, investigating the effect of the transition to low mortality and low fertility on economic development. Over the last two hundred years, mortality and fertility levels in the Western world have dropped to unprecedented levels. This demographic transition was accompanied by an economic transition that led to widespread education and economic growth after centuries of near-stagnation. At the same time, other changes have occurred in family structures, culture, and the organization of society. Economists have only recently begun to take into account the demographic transition from high mortality and high fertility when modeling and researching economic development. This CESifo volume reviews recent approaches to economic demography, considering such topics as the bio-geographic origins of comparative development differences, the role of health improvements and mortality decline, as well as physiological, familial, cultural, and social aspects. After an overview of the study of demography and economic demography, the chapters cover subjects including the Neolithic era and the period of the formation of states and social institutions; longevity and economic growth; household decision making and fertility; land inequality, education, and marriage in nineteenth century Prussia; and caste systems and technology in pre-modern societies. The book concludes with a call for further investigation of the institutional and social factors that influence demographics and economies, suggesting that unified growth theory offers a potential approach to studying development. Contributors Matteo Cervellati, Francesco Cinnirella, David de la Croix, Carl-Johann Dalgaard, Matthias Doepke, Elena Esposito, Davide Fiaschi, Tamara Fioroni, Oded Galor, Boris Gershman, Erik Hornung, Fabian Kindermann, Nils-Petter Lagerlöf, Holger Strulik, Uwe Sunde, David N. Weil

There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.