Energy 2040

Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become the new coal.

The Annual Energy Outlook 2016 presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2040. The projections, focused on U.S. energy markets, are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System which enables EIA to make projections under alternative, internally consistent sets of assumptions.

DOE/EIA-0484(2013). Presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration of the outlook for internationalenergy markets through 2040. The International Energy Outlook 2013 (IEO2013) projects that world energy consumption will grow by 56 percent between 2010 and 2040. Total world energy use rises from 524 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2010 to 630 quadrillion Btu in 2020 and to 820 quadrillion Btu in 2040 (Figure 1). Much of the growth in energy consumption occurs in countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD),2 known as non-OECD, where demand is driven by strong, long-term economic growth. Energy use in non-OECD countries increases by 90 percent; in OECD countries, the increase is 17 percent. The IEO2013 Reference case does not incorporate prospective legislation or policies that might affect energy markets.

International Outlook 2016, an updated statistical reference with energy projections, is provided as a service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. The projections are used by international agencies, federal and state governments, trade associations, and other planners and decision makers. They are published pursuant to the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c). The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand and the major macroeconomic assumptions used in deriving the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) projections, along with the major sources of uncertainty in the projections, which extend through 2040. In addition to the Reference case projections, High Economic Growth and Low Economic Growth cases were developed to consider the effects of higher and lower growth paths for economic activity than are assumed in the Reference case. IEO2016 also includes a High Oil Price case and, alternatively, a Low Oil Price case. The resulting projections--and the uncertainty associated with international energy projections in general--are discussed in Chapter 1, "World energy demand and economic outlook." Projections for energy consumption and production by fuel--petroleum and other liquid fuels, natural gas, and coal--are presented in Chapters 2, 3, and 4, along with reviews of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide basis. Chapter 5 discusses the projections for world electricity markets--including nuclear power, hydropower, and other marketed renewable energy resources--and presents projections of world installed generating capacity. Chapter 6 presents a discussion of energy used in the buildings sector (residential and commercial). Chapter 7 provides a discussion of industrial sector energy use. Chapter 8 includes a detailed look at the world's transportation energy use. Finally, Chapter 9 discusses the outlook for global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. IEO 2016 focuses exclusively on marketed energy. Non-marketed energy sources,which continue to play an important role in some developiing countries, are not included in the estimates. Related products: Energy & Fuels resources collection can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/science-technology/energy-fuels More statistical references can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/statistics-data

The projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013) focus on the factors that shape the U.S. energy system over the long term. Under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged throughout the projections, the AEO2013 Reference case provides the basis for examination and discussion of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. It also serves as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in energy policies.

Written in layman¿s terms, this educational reader provides the keys to understanding the complex relationship between energy technologies, politics, socioeconomics, demographics, and the environment.

Beyond Fossil Fools illustrates, explains, and quantifies the only practical solution to the energy problems of the United States and the world. The solution is a combination of "alternative energy" sources, reduced energy use, hybrid and all electirc cars and trucks, improved batteries, biofuels, nuclear power, political awareness, and political willingness to change.