Evacuation Risks

Large-Scale Evacuation introduces the reader to the steps involved in evacuation modelling for towns and cities, from understanding the hazards that can require large-scale evacuations, through understanding how local officials decide to issue evacuation advisories and households decide whether to comply, to transportation simulation and traffic management strategies. The author team has been recognized internationally for their research and consulting experience in the field of evacuations. Collectively, they have 125 years of experience in evacuation, including more than 140 projects for federal and state agencies. The text explains how to model evacuations that use the road transportation network by combining perspectives from social scientists and transportation engineers, fields that have commonly approached evacuation modelling from distinctly different perspectives. In doing so, it offers a step-by-step guide through the key questions needed to model an evacuation and its impacts to the evacuation route system as well as evacuation management strategies for influencing demand and expanding capacity. The authors also demonstrate how to simulate the resulting traffic and evacuation management strategies that can be used to facilitate evacuee movement and reduce unnecessary demand. Case studies, which identify key points to analyze in an evacuation plan, discuss evacuation termination and re-entry, and highlight challenges that someone developing an evacuation plan or model should expect, are also included. This textbook will be of interest to researchers, practitioners, and advanced students.

Over the last two decades, there has been an increase in the number of natural hazards which have culminated in catastrophic consequences, severely impacting on people and livelihoods. In response to this escalation, the Swiss Natural Hazards Competence Centre (CENAT) organized a workshop entitled "RISK21" at the Centro Stefano Franscini, Mon

"TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 740: A Transportation Guide for All-Hazards Emergency Evacuation focuses on the transportation aspects of evacuation, particularly large-scale, multijurisdictional evacuation. The guidance, strategies, and tools in NCHRP Report 740 are based on an all-hazards approach that has applicability to a wide range of "notice" and "no-notice" emergency events. The report follows the basic planning steps of the Federal Emergency Management Agency's Comprehensive Preparedness Guide (CPG) 101. Each chapter parallels one of the six main CPG steps. Each chapter is further subdivided into smaller, discrete tasks, with cross-references to tools--such as templates or checklists--that are shown at the end of each chapter and are on a CD-ROM included with the print version of the report."--Publisher's description.

This book arrives at just the right time to facilitate understanding of performance-based fire risk assessment in buildings – an integral part of the global shift in policy away from traditional prescriptive codes. Yung, an internationally recognised expert on the subject of fire risk assessment, introduces the basic principles and techniques that help the reader to understand the various methodologies that are currently in place or being proposed by different organisations. Through his illustration of basic principles and techniques he enables the reader to conduct their own fire risk assessments. He demonstrates how the probabilities of fire scenarios are assessed based on the probabilities of success and failure of fire protection measures that are in place. He also shows how the consequences of fire scenarios are assessed based on the intensity and speed of fire and smoke spread, the probability and speed of occupant response and evacuation, and the effectiveness and speed of fire department response and rescue efforts. Yung’s clear and practical approach to this highly topical subject enables the reader to integrate the various tools available into a quantitative framework that can be used for decision making. He brings an invaluable resource to all those involved in fire engineering and risk assessment, including students, academics, building designers, fire protection engineers, structural engineers, regulators and risk analysts.

This publication deals with modeling of infrastructure risk. The objective, exploring different methodologies and related applications, recognized four major topics: Complex Models; Simulation Models; Distributional Models; and Deterministic Models. Focus is on the following issues: the state-of-the-art and practice, gaps between the arts and practices, ways to bridge the gaps, and future research directions. In the first chapter, papers can be found on Computational Nonlinear Models of Risk Assessment, Risk-Based Evaluation of Safety and Security Programs in Critical Infrastructure and Risk Assessment of Modes of Terrorist Attack. One of the papers in the chapter on Simulation Models is on Computational Models for the Simulation of Evacuations following Infrastructure Failures and Terrorist Incidents. Bayesian Belief Nets for Discrete and Continuous Variables and Development of Risk Based Software for Analysis of Power Engineering Accidents are two titles of papers in the third chapter of the book on Distributional Models. Finally, the fourth chapter on Deterministic Models focuses on Environmental Risk Ranking and more.