Achievements And New Frontiers In Research Oriented To Earthquake Forecasting

Cover Image Credit: Zhaofei Liu and Ying Li From the Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China

Pre-Earthquake signals are advanced warnings of a larger seismic event. A better understanding of these processes can help to predict the characteristics of the subsequent mainshock. Pre-Earthquake Processes: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction Studies presents the latest research on earthquake forecasting and prediction based on observations and physical modeling in China, Greece, Italy, France, Japan, Russia, Taiwan, and the United States. Volume highlights include: Describes the earthquake processes and the observed physical signals that precede them Explores the relationship between pre-earthquake activity and the characteristics of subsequent seismic events Encompasses physical, atmospheric, geochemical, and historical characteristics of pre-earthquakes Illustrates thermal infrared, seismo–ionospheric, and other satellite and ground-based pre-earthquake anomalies Applies these multidisciplinary data to earthquake forecasting and prediction Written for seismologists, geophysicists, geochemists, physical scientists, students and others, Pre-Earthquake Processes: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction Studies offers an essential resource for understanding the dynamics of pre-earthquake phenomena from an international and multidisciplinary perspective.

The study of earthquakes plays a key role in order to minimize human and material losses when they inevitably occur. Chapters in this book will be devoted to various aspects of earthquake research and analysis. The different sections present in the book span from statistical seismology studies, the latest techniques and advances on earthquake precursors and forecasting, as well as, new methods for early detection, data acquisition and interpretation. The topics are tackled from theoretical advances to practical applications.

This special issue of Pure and Applied Geophysics is the second of two volumes containing an augmented collection of papers originating from the Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting held in Wellington, New Zealand, in February 2008. The volumes honor Frank Evison's interest in earthquake generation and forecasting. This volume includes descriptions of earthquake forecasting test centers through the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) program and the first results from the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model (RELM) experiment in California. Other papers discuss methods of testing predictions, in particular by the use of error diagrams. There is discussion of prediction methodologies using seismicity, including an application of the statistical technique of Hidden Markov Models to identify changes in seismicity and a new technique for identifying precursory quiescence. Several papers employ other data besides seismicity, such as geologically determined faults, calculations of stress changes via Coulomb stress modeling, tomographically determined velocity structure, groundwater, crustal deformation, and comparisons of real earthquakes to synthetic seismicity determined from hypothesized earthquake physics. One paper focuses on the prediction of human casualties in the event that a large earthquake occurs anywhere on the globe. The volume will be useful to students and professional researchers who are interested in the earthquake preparation process and in converting that understanding into forecasts of earthquake occurrence.

The special natural conditions in Iceland as well as high level technology, were the basis for multidisciplinary and multinational cooperation for studying crustal processes, especially processes ahead of large earthquakes. This work leads to new innovative results and real time warnings which are described in the book. The results obtained in Iceland are of significance for earthquake prediction research worldwide.

This volume comprises papers presented at the China-US Millennium Symposium on Earthquake Engineering, held in Beijing, China, on November 8-11, 2000. This conference provides a forum for advancing the field of earthquake engineering through multi-lateral cooperation.

The study of earthquakes combines science, technology and expertise in infrastructure and engineering in an effort to minimize human and material losses when their occurrence is inevitable. This book is devoted to various aspects of earthquake research and analysis, from theoretical advances to practical applications. Different sections are dedicated to ground motion studies and seismic site characterization, with regard to mitigation of the risk from earthquake and ensuring the safety of the buildings under earthquake loading. The ultimate goal of the book is to encourage discussions and future research to improve hazard assessments, dissemination of earthquake engineering data and, ultimately, the seismic provisions of building codes.

This volume attempts to present the current state of seismic research by focusing not only on the modeling of earthquakes and earthquake generated tsunamis, but also on practical comparisons of the resulting phenomenology. In the 1990s, major advancements in seismic research greatly added to the understanding of earthquake fault systems as complex dynamical systems. Large quantities of new and extensive remote sensing data sets provided information on the solid earth.