Expert Failure

Roger Koppl develops a theory of experts and expert failure, and illustrates his theory with wide-ranging examples, including that of state regulation of economic activity.

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

In arbitration, evidence provides the basis for almost every decision, be it procedural, jurisdictional, or substantive. However, users from different legal traditions may not share the same understanding as to how an arbitral tribunal ought to proceed in this regard. Therefore, it is important for lawyers to know how to collect, develop, and present evidence in arbitration proceedings, not only from a legal perspective but also from a cultural point of view. It is against this backdrop that the editors have invited a diverse group of distinguished arbitration practitioners and academics to contribute to this matchless Handbook of Evidence in International Commercial Arbitration. Key concepts and issues related to evidence in arbitration covered include the following: the normative framework on evidence in arbitration proceedings; the burden and standard of proof; means of evidence, including documents, experts, and witnesses; questions of admissibility, including issues of privilege and confidentiality; the assessment of evidence and its probative value; court assistance and sanctions. With its systematic analysis of the key concepts of evidence, holistic discussion of the applicable normative framework, cross-cultural perspectives on the taking of evidence in arbitration, and reference to case law from major arbitration hubs, this book will become an undisputed point of reference for academics and practitioners alike. Critical acclaim: “This handbook elegantly captures the range of issues that arises regarding evidence in international arbitration. Bringing together the foremost experts in the field, each contribution offers a thoughtful analysis on these issues and the compilation deserves a prominent spot in every practitioner’s arbitral library.” Chiann Bao, Independent Arbitrator (Arbitration Chambers) and Vice President of the ICC Court of Arbitration “This publication well deserves recognition as a landmark handbook on evidence in international commercial arbitration. It comprehensively discusses the whole evidentiary process from its foundations taking a comparative and harmonizing perspective as well as the burden and standards of proof to the various evidentiary means up to the assessment of evidence. Written by leading academics and practitioners from all over the world, it will be a safe haven for anyone facing discrete evidentiary issues and looking for answers to fundamental or actual questions including as to privileges, confidentiality, virtual hearings or data protection.” Professor Filip De Ly, Chair of the ILA International Commercial Arbitration Committee

Traces an important shift in international development policy as global institutions have become preoccupied with policy failure. This title is also available as Open Access.

Learning the proper steps for organizing a failure investigation ensures success. Failure investigations cross company functional boundaries and are an integral component of any design or manufacturing business operation. Well-organized and professionally conducted investigations are essential for solving manufacturing problems and assisting in redesigns. This book outlines a proven systematic approach to failure investigation. It explains the relationship between various failure sources (corrosion, for example) and the organization and conduct of the investigation. It provides a learning platform for engineers from all disciplines: materials, design, manufacturing, quality, and management. The examples in this book focus on the definition of and requirements for a professionally performed failure analysis of a physical object or structure. However, many of the concepts have much greater utility than for investigating the failure of physical objects. For example, the book provides guidance in areas such as learning how to define objectives, negotiating the scope of investigation, examining the physical evidence, and applying general problem-solving techniques.

If you want your startup to succeed, you need to understand why startups fail. “Whether you’re a first-time founder or looking to bring innovation into a corporate environment, Why Startups Fail is essential reading.”—Eric Ries, founder and CEO, LTSE, and New York Times bestselling author of The Lean Startup and The Startup Way Why do startups fail? That question caught Harvard Business School professor Tom Eisenmann by surprise when he realized he couldn’t answer it. So he launched a multiyear research project to find out. In Why Startups Fail, Eisenmann reveals his findings: six distinct patterns that account for the vast majority of startup failures. • Bad Bedfellows. Startup success is thought to rest largely on the founder’s talents and instincts. But the wrong team, investors, or partners can sink a venture just as quickly. • False Starts. In following the oft-cited advice to “fail fast” and to “launch before you’re ready,” founders risk wasting time and capital on the wrong solutions. • False Promises. Success with early adopters can be misleading and give founders unwarranted confidence to expand. • Speed Traps. Despite the pressure to “get big fast,” hypergrowth can spell disaster for even the most promising ventures. • Help Wanted. Rapidly scaling startups need lots of capital and talent, but they can make mistakes that leave them suddenly in short supply of both. • Cascading Miracles. Silicon Valley exhorts entrepreneurs to dream big. But the bigger the vision, the more things that can go wrong. Drawing on fascinating stories of ventures that failed to fulfill their early promise—from a home-furnishings retailer to a concierge dog-walking service, from a dating app to the inventor of a sophisticated social robot, from a fashion brand to a startup deploying a vast network of charging stations for electric vehicles—Eisenmann offers frameworks for detecting when a venture is vulnerable to these patterns, along with a wealth of strategies and tactics for avoiding them. A must-read for founders at any stage of their entrepreneurial journey, Why Startups Fail is not merely a guide to preventing failure but also a roadmap charting the path to startup success.

"In the early 1990s, a small group of "AIDS denialists," including a University of California professor named Peter Duesberg, argued against virtually the entire medical establishment's consensus that the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was the cause of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome. Science thrives on such counterintuitive challenges, but there was no evidence for Duesberg's beliefs, which turned out to be baseless. Once researchers found HIV, doctors and public health officials were able to save countless lives through measures aimed at preventing its transmission"--