Exploiting Future Uncertainty

Whatever the future holds, one thing is sure: nothing is certain except uncertainty. Prediction is always hard, especially about the future, but the biggest risk is not taking any risk at all. All businesses face significant levels of uncertainty these days. To succeed you need to exploit future uncertainty, turning it to your advantage by managing risk effectively. This book shows you how. In his role as The Risk Doctor, international risk consultant Dr David Hillson has advised many major organisations across the globe, showing them how to create value from risk. Now you can benefit from his unique approach and insights. Exploiting Future Uncertainty contains more than sixty focused briefings, each addressing a key part of the risk challenge. Using five themes, David covers the links between better business and risk-taking, basic risk concepts, making risk management work in practice, people aspects, and managing risk in the wider world. Each section is packed with clear practical advice with specific how-to tips and guidance. David Hillson is one of the most influential writers and consultants on risk and in Exploiting Future Uncertainty he offers his prescription for effective risk management in 21st Century businesses.

The brief will describe how to develop a risk analysis applied to a project , through a sequence of steps: risk management planning, risk identification, risk classification, risk assessment, risk quantification, risk response planning, risk monitoring and control, process close out and lessons learning. The project risk analysis and management process will be applied to large engineering projects, in particular related to the oil and gas industry. The brief will address the overall range of possible events affecting the project moving from certainty (project issues) through uncertainty (project risks) to unpredictability (unforeseeable events), considering both negative and positive events. Some quantitative techniques (simulation, event tree, Bayesian inference, etc.) will be used to develop risk quantification. The brief addresses a typical subject in the area of project management, with reference to large engineering projects concerning the realization of large plants and infrastructures. These projects are characterized by a high level of change, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. The brief represents an extension of the material developed for the course Project Risk Analysis and Management of the Master in Strategic Project Management (Erasmus Mundus) developed jointly by Politecnico di Milano, Heriot Watt University (Edimburgh) and Umea (Sweden). The brief may be used both in courses addressing project management subjects and by practitioners as a guide for developing an effective project risk management plan.

What manager is not anxious about the future? We live in a white-knuckled age of rapid technological change and global instability. But uncertainty is not the enemy, says management expert Paul J. H. Schoemaker. It is where the greatest opportunities are. To unlock these opportunities, however, requires a very different approach to strategy and implementation. In this pioneering book, Dr. Schoemaker presents a systematic approach that combines concepts such as scenario planning, options thinking, and dynamic monitoring to create novel strategies for profiting from ambiguity. Building on his experience with more than one hundred consulting projects in fields ranging from health care to manufacturing, from utilities to financial services, Schoemaker shows how major corporations throughout the world have used his pathbreaking methodology to prepare for an uncertain future and profit from it. In this first comprehensive approach to the subject, Schoemaker shows the reader (1) how to develop and analyze multiple industry scenarios, (2) craft nimble strategies with just the right amount of flexibility, (3) implement them using an options approach, and (4) make real-time adjustments through dynamic monitoring. As a leading academic thinker and practitioner, the author draws on the frontiers of decision science, organization theory, strategy, and cognitive psychology to integrate the most practical contributions these various fields have made to navigating uncertainty. More than any other capability, skill in seizing initiatives in shifting, unpredictable circumstances is the key to success. Profiting from Uncertainty provides a road map to do just that. This book was first published in 2002, well ahead of the mega turmoil that befell the world in 2008 and beyond. The methods and tools described here have been used by many companies and are even more relevant today than when originally published. You can’t do without them.

Projects are risky undertakings, and modern approaches to managing projects recognise the central need to manage the risk as an integral part of the project management discipline. Managing Risk in Projects places risk management in its proper context in the world of project management and beyond, and emphasises the central concepts that are essential in order to understand why and how risk management should be implemented on all projects of all types and sizes, in all industries and in all countries. The generic approach detailed by David Hillson is consistent with current international best practice and guidelines (including 'A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge' (PMBoK) and the 'Project Risk Management Practice Standard' from PMI, the 'APM Body of Knowledge' and 'Project Risk Analysis & Management (PRAM) Guide' from APM, 'Management of Risk: Guidance for Practitioners' from OGC, and the forthcoming risk standard from ISO) but David also introduces key developments in the risk management field, ensuring readers are aware of recent thinking, focusing on their relevance to practical application. Throughout, the goal is to offer a concise description of current best practice in project risk management whilst introducing the latest relevant developments, to enable project managers, project sponsors and others responsible for managing risk in projects to do just that - effectively.

A must-read for any project management professional or student. Projects are the life blood of any organization. Revised to reflect the latest changes to A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK(R)) and the Project Management Professional Exam(R), the fourth edition of The AMA Handbook of Project Management provides readers with a clear overview of a complex discipline. Covering everything from individual projects to programs and strategic alignment, it addresses: Project initiation and planning Communication and interpersonal skills Scheduling, budgeting and meeting business objectives Managing political and resource issues Implementing a PMO Measuring value and competencies. The book compiles essays and advice from the field's top professionals and features new chapters on stakeholder management, agile project management, program management, project governance, knowledge management, and more. Updated with fresh examples, case studies and solutions to specific project management dilemmas, it remains an essential reference to the critical concepts and theories all project managers must master.

Over five editions, Gower Handbook of Project Management has become the definitive desk reference for project management practitioners. The Handbook gives an introduction to, and overview of, the essential knowledge required for managing projects. The selected team of contributors includes many of the most experienced and highly regarded international writers and practitioners. The Fifth Edition has been substantially restructured. All but two of the authors are new, reflecting the fast changing and emerging perspectives on projects and their management. The discrete nature of each chapter makes this Handbook a wonderful source of advice and background theory that is easy to consult. Gower Handbook of Project Management is an encyclopaedia for the discipline and profession of project management; a bible for project clients, contractors and students.

This second edition of the book reflects the authors' work to continually improve upon the model and to apply the methodology to a broader range of issues. The book includes: • An entirely new chapter on managing risk in programs, which is an important dimension in today's world of ever more complex initiatives • Updated material and methodology more closely aligned with relevant international standards • Emphasis on minimizing the threats and maximizing the opportunities to optimize achievement of your project goals Based on sound principles and best practices, this book guides any member of the project management team in conducting risk management in a real-world environment.