Financial Globalization And Democracy In Emerging Markets

When Mexico's peso crisis occurred in December 1994, all of Latin America experienced the 'tequila effect'. In January 1998, after seven months of financial turmoil in East Asia, Alan Greenspan, the usually reticent Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank, noted that such 'vicious cycles...may, in fact, be a defining characteristic of the new high-tech international financial system'. This book examines the impact of the new, highly liquid portfolio capital flows on governments, opposition, politicians, business and the workforce in such emerging market countries as Mexico, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia. Hailed as 'exemplary and innovative', 'fine-grained and accessible' and 'a must read', this collection of original essays in newly available in paperback.

For a century, economists have driven forward the cause of globalization in financial institutions, labour markets, and trade. Yet there have been consistent warning signs that a global economy and free trade might not always be advantageous. Where are the pressure points? What could be done about them? Dani Rodrik examines the back-story from its seventeenth-century origins through the milestones of the gold standard, the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the Washington Consensus, to the present day. Although economic globalization has enabled unprecedented levels of prosperity in advanced countries and has been a boon to hundreds of millions of poor workers in China and elsewhere in Asia, it is a concept that rests on shaky pillars, he contends. Its long-term sustainability is not a given. The heart of Rodrik’s argument is a fundamental 'trilemma': that we cannot simultaneously pursue democracy, national self-determination, and economic globalization. Give too much power to governments, and you have protectionism. Give markets too much freedom, and you have an unstable world economy with little social and political support from those it is supposed to help. Rodrik argues for smart globalization, not maximum globalization.

"Cogent, well-written . . . critiques unalloyed globalization enthusiasts, taking aim at their desire to fully liberalize foreign trade ad capital movements." —Foreign Affairs In this eloquent challenge to the reigning wisdom on globalization, Dani Rodrik reminds us of the importance of the nation-state, arguing forcefully that when the social arrangements of democracies inevitably clash with the international demands of globalization, national priorities should take precedence. Combining history with insight, humor with good-natured critique, Rodrik’s case for a customizable globalization supported by a light frame of international rules shows the way to a balanced prosperity as we confront today’s global challenges in trade, finance, and labor markets.

What explains the spread of both democracy and financial openness at this time in history, given the constraining impact of financial market integration on national policy autonomy? International policy coordination is part of the answer, but not all. Also important is the presence of cost-effective redistributive schemes that provide insurance against the risk of financial instability.

A data-driven investigation of the interaction between politics and finance in emerging markets, focusing on Latin America. Politics matter for financial markets and financial markets matter for politics, and nowhere is this relationship more apparent than in emerging markets. In Banking on Democracy, Javier Santiso investigates the links between politics and finance in countries that have recently experienced both economic and democratic transitions. He focuses on elections, investigating whether there is a “democratic premium”—whether financial markets and investors tend to react positively to elections in emerging markets. Santiso devotes special attention to Latin America, where over the last three decades many countries became democracies, with regular elections, just as they also became open economies dependent on foreign capital and dominated bond markets. Santiso's analysis draws on a unique set of primary databases (developed during his years at the OECD Development Centre) covering an entire decade: more than 5,000 bank and fund manager portfolio recommendations on emerging markets. Santiso examines the trajectory of Brazil, for example, through its presidential elections of 2002, 2006, and 2010 and finds a decoupling of financial and political cycles that occurred also in many other emerging economies. He charts this evolution through the behavior of brokers, analysts, fund managers, and bankers. Ironically, Santiso points out, while some emerging markets have decoupled politics and finance, in the wake of the 2008–2012 financial crisis many developed economies (Europe and the United States) have experienced a recoupling between finance and politics.

The end of the Cold War, the "third wave" of democratization, and economic globalization have presented the newly industrialized countries of East Asia and the liberal democracies of Latin America with increasingly similar international opportunities and constraints. During the 1980s, Latin America made great strides in democratization, while East Asia led the world in economic growth. Are the two regions now converging toward a model that combines economic and political liberalization? Many developments in both regions indicate that this is a serious possibility. Although significant countertrends do exist, there is now increased scope for mutual support and encouragement among aspiring democratic forces both within and between these two regions. This book examines these interrelated issues, paying special attention to the effects of the East Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 and its subsequent impact on Latin America. Contributors: Ananya Basu, World Bank; Francis Fukuyama, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University.; Stephan Haggard, University of California-San Diego; Elizabeth M. King, World Bank; Sanjay Marwah, George Mason University; Sylvia Maxfield, Harvard University; Eduardo Silva, University of Missouri-St. Louis and University of Miami; Gordon Redding, University of Hong Kong; Tun-jen Cheng, College of William and Mary; Yun-han Chu, National Taiwan University; Laurence Whitehead, Oxford University.

Politics matter for financial markets and financial markets matter for politics, and nowhere is this relationship more apparent than in emerging markets. In this book, Santiso investigates the links between politics and finance in countries that have recently experienced both economic and democratic transitions. He focuses on elections, investigating whether there is a 'democratic premium' - whether financial markets and investors tend to react positively to elections in emerging markets.