Financial Market History Reflections On The Past For Investors Today

Since the 2008 financial crisis, a resurgence of interest in economic and financial history has occurred among investment professionals. This book discusses some of the lessons drawn from the past that may help practitioners when thinking about their portfolios. The book’s editors, David Chambers and Elroy Dimson, are the academic leaders of the Newton Centre for Endowment Asset Management at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom.

Legendary economist Dr. Henry Kaufman shares a classic Wall Street story that has never been fully told: a firsthand account of the day in August 1982 that would define US economics for decades Dr. Henry Kaufman is the most famous economist Wall Street has ever seen, renowned well beyond the financial industry. He was the subject of New Yorker cartoons, had cameos in drama productions and two seminal literary works of the 1980s, was subject to death threats, and enjoyed the nickname "Dr. Doom." His pinnacle of influence arrived on August 17, 1982. That single day turned out to be the beginning of the world that we now live in. At the time, after painful years of high interest rates and the inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s, consumers were paying 17 percent and higher to borrow money. But by the end of one summer day almost 40 years ago, the stock market had undergone its second-biggest rally since WWII, while bond prices soared and interest rates plunged. Dr. Kaufman himself had written a memo that sparked this tremendous boom-and it set the global markets on fire, marking the start of almost four decades of US economic growth. The Day the Markets Roared answers the questions: • Why did Dr. Kaufman break with his longstanding bearish views to make a momentous prediction that spurred blaring headlines everywhere from Brazil to Beijing? • How could a private individual exercise such profound influence over global financial markets? • How did we get to today's rock-bottom and even negative rates? And what is their continuing impact on the economy, our financial markets and our livelihoods? The Day the Markets Roared is a firsthand, minute-by-minute account of one remarkable day in financial and economic history, with a rich cast of characters, from Salomon's John Gutfreund to interest rate guru Sydney Homer, to Dr. Kaufman's longtime friend, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker. Dr. Kaufman reflects on the lessons of the historic August 1982 episode, harkening back to a more optimistic moment in American history, and offering inspiration for better times ahead.

In predicting the major stock, bond, commodity, and foreign exchange markets around the world, nothing is more important than to anticipate the actions of the Federal Reserve System's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets the course of monetary policy in the United States. By controlling the key interest rate in the money markets and other monetary variables, the FOMC has an enormous impact on the global economy and financial markets.Watching the Fed closely are not only Wall Street's economists and investment strategists but also reporters and commentators at the major financial news organizations. In fact, anyone involved in investment matters and business activities anywhere in the world needs to watch the Fed, because its policies have powerful impacts not only on the US economy but also on the global economy.For participants in the financial markets, anticipating a policy change by the Fed and positioning an investment portfolio or speculative trade accordingly can result in big gains. Conversely, failing to anticipate a move by the Fed can result in big losses or missed opportunities for gains.In this unique primer, Dr. Edward Yardeni, one of the world's most experienced and widely followed "Fed watchers," helps investors to understand the FOMC's decision-making process, anticipate its moves, and profit from those insights.

Praise for Don't Count On It! "This collection of Jack Bogle's writings couldn't be more timely. The clarity of his thinking—and his insistence on the relevance of ethical standards—are totally relevant as we strive to rebuild a broken financial system. For too many years, his strong voice has been lost amid the cacophony of competing self-interests, misdirected complexity, and unbounded greed. Read, learn, and support Jack's mission to reform the industry that has been his life's work." —PAUL VOLCKER, Chairman of the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board and former Chairman of the Federal Reserve (1979–1987) "Jack Bogle has given investors throughout the world more wisdom and plain financial 'horse sense' than any person in the history of markets. This compendium of his best writings, particularly his post-crisis guidance, is absolutely essential reading for investors and those who care about the future of our society." —ARTHUR LEVITT, former Chairman, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission "Jack Bogle is one of the most lucid men in finance." —NASSIM N.TALEB, PhD, author of The Black Swan "Jack Bogle is one of the financial wise men whose experience spans the post–World War II years. This book, encompassing his insights on financial behavior, pitfalls, and remedies, with a special focus on mutual funds, is an essential read. We can only benefit from his observations." —HENRY KAUFMAN, President, Henry Kaufman & Company, Inc. "It was not an easy sell. The joke at first was that only finance professors invested in Vanguard's original index fund. But what a triumph it has been. And what a focused and passionate drive it took: it is a zero-sum game and only costs are certain. Thank you, Jack." —JEREMY GRANTHAM, Cofounder and Chairman, GMO "On finance, Jack Bogle thinks unconventionally. So, this sound rebel turns out to be right most of the time. Meanwhile, many of us sometimes engage in self-deception. So, this book will set us straight. And in the last few pages, Jack writes, and I agree, that Peter Bernstein was a giant. So is Jack Bogle." —JEAN-MARIE EVEILLARD, Senior Adviser, First Eagle Investment Management Insights into investing and leadership from the founder of The Vanguard Group Throughout his legendary career, John Bogle-founder of the Vanguard mutual fund group and creator of the first index mutual fund-has helped investors build wealth the right way, while, at the same time, leading a tireless campaign to restore common sense to the investment world. A collection of essays based on speeches delivered to professional groups and college students in recent years, in Don't Count on It is organized around eight themes Illusion versus reality in investing Indexing to market returns Failures of capitalism The flawed structure of the mutual fund industry The spirit of entrepreneurship What is enough in business, and in life Advice to America's future leaders The unforgettable characters who have shaped his career Widely acclaimed for his role as the conscience of the mutual fund industry and a relentless advocate for individual investors, in Don't Count on It, Bogle continues to inspire, while pushing the mutual fund industry to measure up to their promise.

Behavioral finance presented in this book is the second-generation of behavioral finance. The first generation, starting in the early 1980s, largely accepted standard finance’s notion of people’s wants as “rational” wants—restricted to the utilitarian benefits of high returns and low risk. That first generation commonly described people as “irrational”—succumbing to cognitive and emotional errors and misled on their way to their rational wants. The second generation describes people as normal. It begins by acknowledging the full range of people’s normal wants and their benefits—utilitarian, expressive, and emotional—distinguishes normal wants from errors, and offers guidance on using shortcuts and avoiding errors on the way to satisfying normal wants. People’s normal wants include financial security, nurturing children and families, gaining high social status, and staying true to values. People’s normal wants, even more than their cognitive and emotional shortcuts and errors, underlie answers to important questions of finance, including saving and spending, portfolio construction, asset pricing, and market efficiency.

How investment strategies designed to reduce risk can increase risk for everyone—and can crash markets and economies Financial crises are often blamed on unforeseeable events, the unforgiving nature of capital markets, or just plain bad luck. Too Smart for Our Own Good argues that these crises are caused by certain alluring investment strategies that promise both high returns and safety of capital. In other words, the severe and widespread crises we have suffered in recent decades were not perfect storms. Instead, they were made by us. By understanding how and why this is so, we may be able to avoid or ameliorate future crises—and maybe even anticipate them. One of today’s leading financial thinkers, Bruce I. Jacobs, examines recent financial crises—including the 1987 stock market crash, the 1998 collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management, the 2007–2008 credit crisis, and the European debt crisis—and reveals the common threads that explain these market disruptions. In each case, investors in search of safety were drawn to novel strategies that were intended to reduce risk but actually magnified it—and blew up markets. Too Smart for Our Own Good takes a behind-the-curtain look at: • The inseparable nature of investment risk and reward and the often counterproductive effects of some popular approaches for reducing risk • A trading strategy known as portfolio insurance and the key role it played in the 1987 stock market crash • How option-related trading disrupted markets in the decade following the 1987 crash • Why the demise of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998 wreaked havoc on US stock and bond markets • How mortgage-backed financial products, by shifting risk from one party to another, created the credit crisis of 2007–2008 and contributed to the subsequent European debt crisis This broad, detailed investigation of financial crises is the most penetrating and objective look at the subject to date. In addition, Jacobs, an industry insider, offers invaluable insights into the nature of investment risk and reward, and how to manage risk. Risk is unavoidable—especially in investing—and financial markets connect us all. Until we accept these facts and manage risk in responsible ways, major crises will always be just around the bend. Too Smart for Our Own Good is a big step toward smarter investing—and a better financial future for everyone.

This unique study focuses on how the endowment assets of Oxford and Cambridge colleges are invested. Despite their shared missions, each interprets its investment objective differently, often resulting in remarkably dissimilar strategies. This thought provoking study provides new insights for all investors with a long-term investment horizon.