Fiscal Limits External Debt And Fiscal Policy In Developing Countries

This paper studies fiscal policy effects in developing countries with external debt and sovereign default risks. State-dependent distributions of fiscal limits are simulated based on macroeconomic uncertainty and fiscal policy specifications. The analysis shows that expected future revenue plays an important role in the low fiscal limits of developing countries, relative to those of developed countries. External debt carries additional risks since large devaluation of the real exchange rate can suddenly raise default probabilities. Consistent with majority views, fiscal consolidations are counterproductive in the short and medium runs. When an economy approaches its fiscal limits, government spending can be less expansionary than in a low-debt state. As more revenue is required to service debt in a high-debt state, higher tax rates raise the economic cost of increasing consumption, reducing the fiscal multiplier.

Edited by Mario I. Blejer and Ke-young Chu, this book investigates linkages among components of the public sector, as well as between macro and micro aspects of fiscal policy, in developing countries. It presents 13 papers prepared by economists of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department.

Sets out principles for conducting fiscal policy in developing countries. Examines the role of public spending in meeting the Millennium Development Goals. Discusses the determinants of fiscal sustainability, the effectiveness of social spending, the limits to absorptive capacity, the volatility of aid flows and their impact on dependency, and a range of other contentious issues.

The book deals with aspects of the recent fiscal crisis in developing countries. Macro aspects cover theoretical underpinning of fiscal policy, the size of the required adjustment and the link between internal and external transfers. Micro aspects cover the relation between private and public investment, the experience of tax and expenditure reforms, and the impact of fiscal adjustment on the poor.

This volume contains a series of 21 papers presented at the International Conference of Economists, held at the University of Zagreb, Yugoslavia. The contributors discuss policy issues of macro-economic managment and offer general and overall approaches to the debt and growth problems of the 1980s.

This paper develops a macroeconomic model for a small, open, developing economy that borrows abroad - to study the dynamic interaction between debt and growth and the impacts of various policies and exogenous shocks on the rate of capital accumulation, the current account, and debt. Adjustment policies that increase productivity and efficient use of capital increase both growth and the stock of external debt - but the new level of debt may be sustainable in the long run.

This lively and accessible book discusses the real world fiscal issues in developing countries within a realistic macroeconomic and social framework. It represents the best synthesis currently available of the link between public finance and macroeconomics in developing countries, with emphasis on positive rather than normative aspects. The first part of the book emphasizes the reasons why normatively prescribed policy objectives are often not achieved. The second part includes various chapters that show the close link that exists between developments in the public finances and in the macroeconomic situation of these countries. The impact on inflation and of the real exchange rate on tax revenue is highlighted. The third part discusses various aspects of taxation and the requirements for successful tax reform.