Global Economic Prospects 2007

Over the next 25 years developing countries will move to center stage in the global economy. Global Economic Prospects 2007 analyzes the opportunities - and stresses - this will create. While rich and poor countries alike stand to benefit, the integration process will make more acute stresses already apparent today - in income inequality, in labor markets, and in the environment. Over the next 25 years, rapid technological progress, burgeoning trade in goods and services, and integration of financial markets create the opportunity for faster long-term growth. However, some regions, notably Africa, are at risk of being left behind. The coming globalization will also see intensified stresses on the "global commons." Addressing global warming, preserving marine fisheries, and containing infectious diseases will require effective multilateral collaboration to ensure that economic growth and poverty reduction proceed without causing irreparable harm to future generations."

The global economy grew strongly in the first half of 2007, although turbulence in financial markets has clouded prospects. While the 2007 forecast has been little affected, the baseline projection for 2008 global growth has been reduced by almost 1⁄2 percentage point relative to the July 2007 World Economic Outlook Update. This would still leave global growth at a solid 43⁄4 percent, supported by generally sound fundamentals and strong momentum in emerging market economies. Risks to the outlook, however, are firmly on the downside, centered around the concern that financial market strains could deepen and trigger a more pronounced global slowdown. Thus, the immediate focus of policymakers is to restore more normal financial market conditions and safeguard the expansion. Additional risks to the outlook include potential inflation pressures, volatile oil markets, and the impact on emerging markets of strong foreign exchange inflows. At the same time, longer-term issues such as population aging, increasing resistance to globalization, and global warming are a source of concern.

Global Economic Prospects 2007 explores the short-, medium-, and long-term outlook for the global economy and the implications for developing countries and poverty reduction. This year's edition examines how the international community, in managing the process of integration, will shape the world of 2030.

The global economy grew strongly in the first half of 2007, although turbulence in financial markets has clouded prospects. While the 2007 forecast has been little affected, the baseline projection for 2008 global growth has been reduced by almost ½ percentage point relative to the July 2007 World Economic Outlook Update. This would still leave global growth at a solid 4¾ percent, supported by generally sound fundamentals and strong momentum in emerging market economies. Risks to the outlook, however, are firmly on the downside, centered around the concern that financial market strains could deepen and trigger a more pronounced global slowdown. Thus, the immediate focus of policymakers is to restore more normal financial market conditions and safeguard the expansion. Additional risks to the outlook include potential inflation pressures, volatile oil markets, and the impact on emerging markets of strong foreign exchange inflows. At the same time, longer-term issues such as population aging, increasing resistance to globalization, and global warming are a source of concern.

This edition of the annual publication considers the need to reshape the global architecture of world trade, in order to help strengthen the economies of developing countries and reduce world poverty. The report focuses on four policy areas: the establishment of a development round of WTO negotiations to reduce trade barriers; global co-operation to expand trade outside the WTO; the adoption of pro-trade development policies by high-income countries; and enacting trade reforms in developing countries. The findings of the report suggest that developing countries could significantly increase their incomes, if all countries progressively implement the proposed trade reforms. This would result in a world with a much higher standard of living, an estimated 300 million people lifted out of poverty by 2015, and a significant increase in the number of children living beyond their fifth birthday throughout the developing world.

'Global Economic Prospects 2008: Technology Diffusion in the Developing World' examines the state of technology in developing countries and the pace with which it has advanced since the early 1990s. It reveals both encouraging and cautionary trends. On the one hand, the pace of technological progress in developing countries has been much faster than in high-income countries-reflecting increased exposure to foreign technology as a result of linkages with high-skilled diasporas and the opening of these countries to international trade and foreign direct investment.On the other hand, the technology gap remains large, and the domestic factors that determine how quickly technologies spread within developing countries often stymie progress, especially among low-income countries. This year's 'Global Economic Prospects' comes on the heels of an extended period of strong growth and a 15 year period of strong performance in much of the developing world, which has contributed to substantial declines in global poverty. While high oil prices and heightened market volatility may signal a coming pause in this process, over the longer term continued technological progress should continue to push back poverty. 'Rapid technological progress in developing countries has been central to the reduction of poverty in recent decades. While the integration of global markets has played and will continue to play a key role in this, future success will increasingly depend on strengthening technical competencies and the business environment for innovative firms in developing countries.' - Graeme Wheeler, Managing Director, The World Bank