Introduction To Time Series And Forecasting

This is an introduction to time series that emphasizes methods and analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills. Statisticians and students will learn the latest methods in time series and forecasting, along with modern computational models and algorithms.

Praise for the First Edition "...[t]he book is great for readers who need to apply the methods and models presented but have little background in mathematics and statistics." -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents the underlying theories of time series analysis that are needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- to medium-term statistical forecasts. Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals in engineering statistics, the Second Edition features discussions on both popular and modern time series methodologies as well as an introduction to Bayesian methods in forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition also includes: Over 300 exercises from diverse disciplines including health care, environmental studies, engineering, and finance More than 50 programming algorithms using JMP®, SAS®, and R that illustrate the theory and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data New material on frequency domain and spatial temporal data analysis Expanded coverage of the variogram and spectrum with applications as well as transfer and intervention model functions A supplementary website featuring PowerPoint® slides, data sets, and select solutions to the problems Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition is an ideal textbook upper-undergraduate and graduate-levels courses in forecasting and time series. The book is also an excellent reference for practitioners and researchers who need to model and analyze time series data to generate forecasts.

Time series forecasting is different from other machine learning problems. The key difference is the fixed sequence of observations and the constraints and additional structure this provides. In this Ebook, finally cut through the math and specialized methods for time series forecasting. Using clear explanations, standard Python libraries and step-by-step tutorials you will discover how to load and prepare data, evaluate model skill, and implement forecasting models for time series data.

This edition contains a large number of additions and corrections scattered throughout the text, including the incorporation of a new chapter on state-space models. The companion diskette for the IBM PC has expanded into the software package ITSM: An Interactive Time Series Modelling Package for the PC, which includes a manual and can be ordered from Springer-Verlag. * We are indebted to many readers who have used the book and programs and made suggestions for improvements. Unfortunately there is not enough space to acknowledge all who have contributed in this way; however, special mention must be made of our prize-winning fault-finders, Sid Resnick and F. Pukelsheim. Special mention should also be made of Anthony Brockwell, whose advice and support on computing matters was invaluable in the preparation of the new diskettes. We have been fortunate to work on the new edition in the excellent environments provided by the University of Melbourne and Colorado State University. We thank Duane Boes particularly for his support and encouragement throughout, and the Australian Research Council and National Science Foundation for their support of research related to the new material. We are also indebted to Springer-Verlag for their constant support and assistance in preparing the second edition. Fort Collins, Colorado P. J. BROCKWELL November, 1990 R. A. DAVIS * /TSM: An Interactive Time Series Modelling Package for the PC by P. J. Brockwell and R. A. Davis. ISBN: 0-387-97482-2; 1991.

Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

A time series is a set of repeated measurements of the same phenomenon taken sequentially over time. Capturing the data creates a time series "memory" to document correlations or lack, and to help them make decisions based on this data.

Summary: Designed for the analysis of linear time series and the practical modelling and prediction of data collected sequentially in time. The 6 programs included are PEST, SPEC, SMOOTH, TRANS, ARVEC, and ARAR.

Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory acccessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introducitons are also given to cointegration and to non-linear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.