Marine Forecasting

Commerce and the general publicâ€"especially those living in increasingly crowded, highly developed low-lying coastal communitiesâ€"rely heavily on accurate forecasts of marine conditions and weather over the oceans to ensure the safe and productive use of the sea and coastal zone. This book examines the opportunities to improve our ocean forecasting systems made possible by new observational techniques and high-speed computers. Significant benefits from these potential improvements are possible for transportation, ocean energy and resources development, fisheries and recreation, and coastal management.

The Advanced Study Courses in the field of Marine Science and Technology were part of the training programme developed from 1989 until 1999 within MAST, the Marine Science and Technology Programme of the European Union. They were related to the core topics of MAST Programme, marine systems research, extreme marine environments, regional Sea research, coastal systems research and engineering, and marine technology. The main objectives of these study courses were to further advance education in topics at the forefront of scien tific and technological development in Europe, and to improve the communication between students and experienced scientists on a European and international level. Over the years the Programme sponsored around 30 Advanced Study Courses. They took place in ten different member states of the European Union and their contribution in the formation of a European scientific community was significant. They also encouraged exchanges and contacts with several countries around the world such as United States, the third Mediterranean countries and others. The Course on Ocean Forecasting was one ofthe most successful with regard to its con tent, number of applications for participation and students satisfaction. When considering the need for the Advanced Study Course on Ocean Forecast ing, it is important to remember that the Oceans and Seas have always played a central role throughout the history of mankind. This is seen from the times of the ancient civilizations ofEgypt and Greece with the Phoenician traders, to the Viking voyages of exploration and discovery in medieval times.

Have you ever listened to a weather forecast stating there may be a slight chance of showers but the rain is coming down so hard you are seriously considering a lifejacket while standing on the dock? During such times, one suggestion to the forecaster runs through everyone's mind: "Look out the window!!" That is certainly one of the most accurate methods to forecast the immediate weather. Everyone knows the look of the sky when a thunderstorm or squall is moving in, but few know how to determine what is in store more than a few hours ahead. Frank has taken the mystery out of weather forecasting in his book Marine Weather Forecasting. He explains how to tell more about the weather, for hours and days to come, than any broadcast. But you must know what to look for when you go on deck. The wind, clouds, moon and sun all tell the story and Frank explains how to read these signs. Anyone can understand Frank's detailed descriptions of forecasting and the illustrations add to the ease. Caution: After reading this book you may never rely on another broadcast report. Illustrated

This volume covers a wide range of topics and summarizes our present knowledge in ocean modeling, ocean observing systems, and data assimilation. The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) provides a framework for these efforts: a global system of observations, communications, modeling, and assimilation that will deliver regular, comprehensive information on the state of the oceans, engendering wide utility and availability for maximum benefit to the community.

Marine fog forecasts during the summer period in the North Pacific are not made presently with any acceptable degree of accuracy. Objective fog development models exist and are used with some success for localized coastal regions of the western U.S.; scarcity of accurate data has hindered creation of a reliable open-ocean model. The Eulerian single-station approach, utilizing a segment of the complete accurate data of Ocean Weather Station Papa (50N, 145W) is applied in this study to an objective marine fog forecasting model. The time-series study of significant atmospheric variables at OWS Papa, when coupled with a chronological synoptic overview, delineates accurately fog/no fog sequences in the summer months of 1973 and 1977. Actual observed fog situations are evaluated by the general model and presented in relation to open-ocean fog indices, NOAA 5 satellite coverage and synoptic history. The open-ocean forecast model is tested on an independent data set for the month of July 1975 at OWS Papa, with favorable results. The research delineates four required indices that must all be positive to forecast fog. These indices, when plotted daily in the region of OWS Papa allow a single station to predict, with some confidence out to twenty-four hours, the occurrence of advection fog. (Author).

Marine Forecasting