Mathematical Methods In Counterterrorism

Terrorism is one of the serious threats to international peace and security that we face in this decade. No nation can consider itself immune from the dangers it poses, and no society can remain disengaged from the efforts to combat it. The termcounterterrorism refers to the techniques, strategies, and tactics used in the ?ght against terrorism. Counterterrorism efforts involve many segments of so- ety, especially governmental agencies including the police, military, and intelligence agencies (both domestic and international). The goal of counterterrorism efforts is to not only detect and prevent potential future acts but also to assist in the response to events that have already occurred. A terrorist cell usually forms very quietly and then grows in a pattern – sp- ning international borders, oceans, and hemispheres. Surprising to many, an eff- tive “weapon”, just as quiet – mathematics – can serve as a powerful tool to combat terrorism, providing the ability to connect the dots and reveal the organizational pattern of something so sinister. The events of 9/11 instantly changed perceptions of the wordsterrorist andn- work, especially in the United States. The international community was confronted with the need to tackle a threat which was not con?ned to a discreet physical - cation. This is a particular challenge to the standard instruments for projecting the legal authority of states and their power to uphold public safety. As demonstrated by the events of the 9/11 attack, we know that terrorist attacks can happen anywhere.

This work represents the latest in mathematical and computational techniques to assist in combating terrorist cells. Achieved by quantifying threats and the effectiveness of counterterrorism operations and strategies, contributors share theories and methodologies to generate and analyze terrorist networks and provide mathematical methods and practical algorithms for destabilizing adversaries. New developments include: A new centrality-like measure to screen networks for potential actors of interest; Detection of topological characteristics of these networks to understand structure; Measures based on efficiency of networks to identify key players; Theories to detect command structures of networks by detecting hidden hierarchies; A knowledge base of the terrorist attacks in / planned in the past, by spidering data. Results of command structure via new algorithms with SNA literature (N-Clique, K-Core, etc.) are compared. The best techniques are combined to assist intelligence agencies / law enforcement.

With the realization that many clues and hints preceded the September 11 terrorist attacks, statisticians became an important part of the global war on terror. This book surveys emerging research at the intersection of national security and statistical sciences. In it, a diverse group of talented researchers address such topics as Syndromic Surveillance; Modeling and Simulation; Biometric Authentication; and Game Theory. The book includes general reviews of quantitative approaches to counterterrorism, for decision makers with policy backgrounds, as well as technical treatments of statistical issues that will appeal to quantitative researchers.

Terrorist groups throughout the world have been studied primarily through the use of social science methods. However, major advances in IT during the past decade have led to significant new ways of studying terrorist groups, making forecasts, learning models of their behaviour, and shaping policies about their behaviour. Handbook of Computational Approaches to Counterterrorism provides the first in-depth look at how advanced mathematics and modern computing technology is shaping the study of terrorist groups. This book includes contributions from world experts in the field, and presents extensive information on terrorism data sets, new ways of building such data sets in real-time using text analytics, introduces the mathematics and computational approaches to understand terror group behaviour, analyzes terror networks, forecasts terror group behaviour, and shapes policies against terrorist groups. Auxiliary information will be posted on the book’s website. This book targets defence analysts, counter terror analysts, computer scientists, mathematicians, political scientists, psychologists, and researchers from the wide variety of fields engaged in counter-terrorism research. Advanced-level students in computer science, mathematics and social sciences will also find this book useful.

Since the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States, serious concerns were raised on domestic and international security issues. Consequently, there has been considerable interest recently in technological strategies and resources to counter acts of terrorism. In this context, this book provides a state-of-the-art survey of the most recent advances in the field of counterterrorism and open source intelligence, demonstrating how various existing as well as novel tools and techniques can be applied in combating covert terrorist networks. A particular focus will be on future challenges of open source intelligence and perspectives on how to effectively operate in order to prevent terrorist activities.

With the realization that many clues and hints preceded the September 11 terrorist attacks, statisticians became an important part of the global war on terror. This book surveys emerging research at the intersection of national security and statistical sciences. In it, a diverse group of talented researchers address such topics as Syndromic Surveillance; Modeling and Simulation; Biometric Authentication; and Game Theory. The book includes general reviews of quantitative approaches to counterterrorism, for decision makers with policy backgrounds, as well as technical treatments of statistical issues that will appeal to quantitative researchers.

Collects the detailed contributions of selected groups of experts from the fields of biostatistics, control theory, epidemiology, and mathematical biology who have engaged in the development of frameworks, models, and mathematical methods needed to address some of the pressing challenges posed by acts of terror.

In the war on terror, decisions have to be made quantitative decisions, concerning the allocation of resources, money, and manpower. The methods shown here should help law enforcement and intelligence agencies make these decisions and give them credible arguments with which to defend their decisions. These tools also help answer the question, "Have we disabled a terrorist cell, or is it still capable of carrying out attacks?" While we cannot answer such a question with certainty, the tools provided help determine the probability that we have disrupted a particular terrorist cell. About the author: Professor Jonathan David Farley is in the department of mathematics at the California Institute of Technology. He has been a Science Fellow at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation and a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Seed Magazine named him one of "15 people who have shaped the global conversation about science in 2005." Originally published as a Proteus paper.