Measuring Risk In Complex Stochastic Systems

Complex dynamic processes of life and sciences generate risks that have to be taken. The need for clear and distinctive definitions of different kinds of risks, adequate methods and parsimonious models is obvious. The identification of important risk factors and the quantification of risk stemming from an interplay between many risk factors is a prerequisite for mastering the challenges of risk perception, analysis and management successfully. The increasing complexity of stochastic systems, especially in finance, have catalysed the use of advanced statistical methods for these tasks. The methodological approach to solving risk management tasks may, however, be undertaken from many different angles. A financial insti tution may focus on the risk created by the use of options and other derivatives in global financial processing, an auditor will try to evalu ate internal risk management models in detail, a mathematician may be interested in analysing the involved nonlinearities or concentrate on extreme and rare events of a complex stochastic system, whereas a statis tician may be interested in model and variable selection, practical im plementations and parsimonious modelling. An economist may think about the possible impact of risk management tools in the framework of efficient regulation of financial markets or efficient allocation of capital.

Fully revised and restructured, Measuring Market Risk, Second Edition includes a new chapter on options risk management, as well as substantial new information on parametric risk, non-parametric measurements and liquidity risks, more practical information to help with specific calculations, and new examples including Q&A’s and case studies.

Includes a CD-ROM that contains Excel workbooks and a Matlab manual and software. Covers the subject without advanced or exotic material.

Risk concentrations play a crucial role for the survival of individual banks and for the stability of the whole banking system. Thus, it is important from an economical and a regulatory perspective to properly measure and manage these concentrations. In this book, the impact of credit concentrations on portfolio risk is analyzed for different portfolio types and it is determined, in which cases the influence of concentration risk has to be taken into account. Furthermore, some models for the measurement of concentration risk are modified to be consistent with Basel II and their performance is compared. Beyond that, this book integrates economical and regulatory aspects of concentration risk and seeks to provide a systematic way to get familiar with the topic of concentration risk from the basics of credit risk modeling to present research in the measurement and management of credit risk concentrations.

This volume provides practical solutions and introduces recent theoretical developments in risk management, pricing of credit derivatives, quantification of volatility and copula modeling. This third edition is devoted to modern risk analysis based on quantitative methods and textual analytics to meet the current challenges in banking and finance. It includes 14 new contributions and presents a comprehensive, state-of-the-art treatment of cutting-edge methods and topics, such as collateralized debt obligations, the high-frequency analysis of market liquidity, and realized volatility. The book is divided into three parts: Part 1 revisits important market risk issues, while Part 2 introduces novel concepts in credit risk and its management along with updated quantitative methods. The third part discusses the dynamics of risk management and includes risk analysis of energy markets and for cryptocurrencies. Digital assets, such as blockchain-based currencies, have become popular b ut are theoretically challenging when based on conventional methods. Among others, it introduces a modern text-mining method called dynamic topic modeling in detail and applies it to the message board of Bitcoins. The unique synthesis of theory and practice supported by computational tools is reflected not only in the selection of topics, but also in the fine balance of scientific contributions on practical implementation and theoretical concepts. This link between theory and practice offers theoreticians insights into considerations of applicability and, vice versa, provides practitioners convenient access to new techniques in quantitative finance. Hence the book will appeal both to researchers, including master and PhD students, and practitioners, such as financial engineers. The results presented in the book are fully reproducible and all quantlets needed for calculations are provided on an accompanying website. The Quantlet platform quantlet.de, quantlet.com, quantlet.org is an integrated QuantNet environment consisting of different types of statistics-related documents and program codes. Its goal is to promote reproducibility and offer a platform for sharing validated knowledge native to the social web. QuantNet and the corresponding Data-Driven Documents-based visualization allows readers to reproduce the tables, pictures and calculations inside this Springer book.

Now in its fourth edition, this book offers a detailed yet concise introduction to the growing field of statistical applications in finance. The reader will learn the basic methods of evaluating option contracts, analyzing financial time series, selecting portfolios and managing risks based on realistic assumptions about market behavior. The focus is both on the fundamentals of mathematical finance and financial time series analysis, and on applications to given problems concerning financial markets, thus making the book the ideal basis for lectures, seminars and crash courses on the topic. For this new edition the book has been updated and extensively revised and now includes several new aspects, e.g. new chapters on long memory models, copulae and CDO valuation. Practical exercises with solutions have also been added. Both R and Matlab Code, together with the data, can be downloaded from the book’s product page and www.quantlet.de

This book outlines and demonstrates problems with the use of the HP filter, and proposes an alternative strategy for inferring cyclical behavior from a time series featuring seasonal, trend, cyclical and noise components. The main innovation of the alternative strategy involves augmenting the series forecasts and back-casts obtained from an ARIMA model, and then applying the HP filter to the augmented series. Comparisons presented using artificial and actual data demonstrate the superiority of the alternative strategy.

Risk models are models of uncertainty, engineered for some purposes. They are “educated guesses and hypotheses” assessed and valued in terms of well-defined future states and their consequences. They are engineered to predict, to manage countable and accountable futures and to provide a frame of reference within which we may believe that “uncertainty is tamed”. Quantitative-statistical tools are used to reconcile our information, experience and other knowledge with hypotheses that both serve as the foundation of risk models and also value and price risk. Risk models are therefore common to most professions, each with its own methods and techniques based on their needs, experience and a wisdom accrued over long periods of time. This book provides a broad and interdisciplinary foundation to engineering risks and to their financial valuation and pricing. Risk models applied in industry and business, heath care, safety, the environment and regulation are used to highlight their variety while financial valuation techniques are used to assess their financial consequences. This book is technically accessible to all readers and students with a basic background in probability and statistics (with 3 chapters devoted to introduce their elements). Principles of risk measurement, valuation and financial pricing as well as the economics of uncertainty are outlined in 5 chapters with numerous examples and applications. New results, extending classical models such as the CCAPM are presented providing insights to assess the risks and their price in an interconnected, dependent and strategic economic environment. In an environment departing from the fundamental assumptions we make regarding financial markets, the book provides a strategic/game-like approach to assess the risk and the opportunities that such an environment implies. To control these risks, a strategic-control approach is developed that recognizes that many risks resulting by “what we do” as well as “what others do”. In particular we address the strategic and statistical control of compliance in large financial institutions confronted increasingly with a complex and far more extensive regulation.