Methods For Integrated Modeling Of Landscape Change

The Interior Northwest Landscape Analysis System (INLAS) links a number of resource, disturbance, and landscape simulations models to examine the interactions of vegetative succession, management, and disturbance with policy goals. The effects of natural disturbance like wildfire, herbivory, forest insects and diseases, as well as specific management actions are included. The outputs from simulations illustrate potential changes in aquatic conditions and terrestrial habitat, potential for wood utilization, and socioeconomic opportunities. The 14 chapters of this document outline the current state of knowledge in each of the areas covered by the INLAS project and describe the objectives and organization of the project. The project explores ways to integrate the effects of natural disturbances and management into planning and policy analyses; illustrate potential conflicts among current policies, natural distrubances, and management activities; and explore the policy, economics, and ecological constraints associated with the application of effective fuel treatments on midscale landscapes in the interior Northwest.

People are constantly changing the land surface through construction, agriculture, energy production, and other activities. Changes both in how land is used by people (land use) and in the vegetation, rock, buildings, and other physical material that cover the Earth's surface (land cover) can be described and future land change can be projected using land-change models (LCMs). LCMs are a key means for understanding how humans are reshaping the Earth's surface in the past and present, for forecasting future landscape conditions, and for developing policies to manage our use of resources and the environment at scales ranging from an individual parcel of land in a city to vast expanses of forests around the world. Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements describes various LCM approaches, suggests guidance for their appropriate application, and makes recommendations to improve the integration of observation strategies into the models. This report provides a summary and evaluation of several modeling approaches, and their theoretical and empirical underpinnings, relative to complex land-change dynamics and processes, and identifies several opportunities for further advancing the science, data, and cyberinfrastructure involved in the LCM enterprise. Because of the numerous models available, the report focuses on describing the categories of approaches used along with selected examples, rather than providing a review of specific models. Additionally, because all modeling approaches have relative strengths and weaknesses, the report compares these relative to different purposes. Advancing Land Change Modeling's recommendations for assessment of future data and research needs will enable model outputs to better assist the science, policy, and decisionsupport communities.

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Agent-Based Modelling and Landscape Change" that was published in Land

This book presents essential case studies on the integrated modelling of ecosystem services and land-use change in the field of landscape ecology. The case studies were mainly conducted in the Zhangye oasis of the Hexi corridor and the upper reaches of the Heihe river basin, including Loess plateau (for wind power) and the inland waterways of the Yangtze River (for the regulation of extreme events). The book puts forward an integrated modelling method, including human activities, natural processes, land-use change, and ecosystem management, and explores multiple scenarios based on the interests of local managers and their implications for ecosystem services. As the book demonstrates, the integrated modelling method for ecosystem services and land-use change can serve as a valuable tool for gauging the impact of various development scenarios in this study area, and in other regions with similar characteristics. In addition, numerous charts and diagrams are included in each chapter, facilitating the simulation and assessment of specific land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in various study areas.

Reliable predictions of how changing climate and disturbance regimes will affect forest ecosystems are crucial for effective forest management. Current fire and climate research in forest ecosystem and community ecology offers data and methods that can inform such predictions. However, research in these fields occurs at different scales, with disparate goals, methods, and context. Often results are not readily comparable among studies and defy integration. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of three modeling paradigms: empirical gradient models, mechanistic ecosystem models, and stochastic landscape disturbance models. We then propose a synthetic approach to multi-scale analysis of the effects of climatic change and disturbance on forest ecosystems. Empirical gradient models provide an anchor and spatial template for stand-level forest ecosystem models by quantifying key parameters for individual species and accounting for broad-scale geographic variation among them. Gradient imputation transfers predictions of fine-scale forest composition and structure across geographic space. Mechanistic ecosystem dynamic models predict the responses of biological variables to specific environmental drivers and facilitate understanding of temporal dynamics and disequilibrium. Stochastic landscape dynamics models predict frequency, extent, and severity of broad-scale disturbance. A robust linkage of these three modeling paradigms will facilitate prediction of the effects of altered fire and other disturbance regimes on forest ecosystems at multiple scales and in the context of climatic variability and change.

Modern landscape research uses a panoply of techniques to further our understanding of our changing world, including mathematics, statistics and advanced simulation techniques to combine empirical observations with known theories. This book identifies emerging fields and new challenges that are discussed within the framework of the ‘driving forces’ of Landscape Development. the book addresses all of the ‘hot topics’ in this important area of study and emphasizes major contemporary trends in these fields.

Reliable predictions of how changing climate and disturbance regimes will affect forest ecosystems are crucial for effective forest management. Current fire and climate research in forest ecosystem and community ecology offers data and methods that can inform such predictions. However, research in these fields occurs at different scales, with disparate goals, methods, and context. Often results are not readily comparable among studies and defy integration. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of three modeling paradigms: empirical gradient models, mechanistic ecosystem models, and stochastic landscape disturbance models. We then propose a synthetic approach to multi-scale analysis of the effects of climatic change and disturbance on forest ecosystems. Empirical gradient models provide an anchor and spatial template for stand-level forest ecosystem models by quantifying key parameters for individual species and accounting for broad-scale geographic variation among them. Gradient imputation transfers predictions of fine-scale forest composition and structure across geographic space. Mechanistic ecosystem dynamic models predict the responses of biological variables to specific environmental drivers and facilitate understanding of temporal dynamics and disequilibrium. Stochastic landscape dynamics models predict frequency, extent, and severity of broad-scale disturbance. A robust linkage of these three modeling paradigms will facilitate prediction of the effects of altered fire and other disturbance regimes on forest ecosystems at multiple scales and in the context of climatic variability and change.

Poverty, food insecurity, biodiversity and habitat loss are persistent global challenges that are further exacerbated by the impacts of climate change. These challenges are particularly hard felt in the tropical landscapes of the global South where tensions between local socio-economic and international environmental commitments are pervasive. Due to the apparent failure of sectorial approaches to address such challenges, more holistic strategies are being increasingly promoted. Integrated landscape approaches are one such example; essentially a governance strategy that engages multiple stakeholders to reconcile societal and environmental objectives at the landscape scale to identify trade-offs and potential synergies for more sustainable and equitable land management. Integrated landscape approaches have been widely endorsed in the international and national policy arena, within academia, and in the discourse surrounding conservation and development funding. However, despite strong scientific theories and concepts, the implementation, and particularly evaluation and reporting, of integrated landscape approaches in the tropics remains poorly developed. The COLANDS initiative represents an explicit attempt to contribute towards the evidence base by operationalizing integrated landscape approaches in Ghana, Zambia and Indonesia. In this regard we aim to provide regular, honest reporting of progress. This book details the experiences of researchers engaged in these landscape-scale initiatives across the first two years of implementation. With dedicated chapters on current progress, biodiversity, methods and evaluation the book provides useful tools and resources for research and implementation. Furthermore, we consider the complex socio-political challenges associated with landscape approaches with chapters focussed on how to effectively engaging stakeholders and understanding the national policy environment. We then provide profiles of the sites in each of the three countries and describe the historical context, current status and potential for more integrated landscape governance. This book explores the techniques and strategies that can be deployed to improve the governance and management of land and natural resources and better reconcile conservation and development objectives in tropical landscapes undergoing rapid change. Contents Foreword Acknowledgments Author bios Executive Summary Introduction and backgroundJames Reed, Mirjam Ros-Tonen and Terry Sunderland Integrated landscape approaches in the tropicsJames Reed, Amy Ickowitz, Colas Chervier, Houria Djoudi, Kaala B Moombe, Mirjam Ros-Tonen, Malaika Yanou, Elizabeth L Yuliani and Terry Sunderland The role of biodiversity in integrated landscape approachesJoli R Borah, Yves Laumonier, Eric RC Bayala, Houria Djoudi, Davison Gumbo, Kaala B Moombe, Elizabeth L Yuliani and Mathurin Zida Engaging multiple stakeholders to reconcile climate, conservation and development objectives in tropical landscapesJames Reed, Jos Barlow, Rachel Carmenta, Josh van Vianen and Terry Sunderland Theories of change and monitoring and evaluation types for landscape approachesColas Chervier, Marie-Gabrielle Piketty and James Reed A methods toolbox for integrated landscape approachesJames Reed, Joli R Borah, Colas Chervier, James Langston, Moira Moeliono, Alida O’Connor, Elizabeth L Yuliani and Terry Sunderland Potential for integration? An assessment of national environment and development policiesAlida O’Connor, Houria Djoudi, Moira Moeliono, Kaala B Moombe and Freddie S Siangulube Context for landscape approach implementation in the Western Wildlife Corridor Landscape (Northern Ghana)Eric RC Bayala, Houria Djoudi, Mirjam Ros-Tonen and Mathurin Zida Understanding landscape dynamics: A case study from Kalomo DistrictKaala B Moombe, Freddie S Siangulube, Bravedo M Mwaanga, Tiza I Mfuni, Malaika P Yanou, Davison J Gumbo, Rays C Mwansa and Gilbert Juunza Kapuas Hulu: A background analysis to implementing an integrated landscape approachAugusta M Anandi, Elizabeth L Yuliani, Moira Moeliono, Yves Laumonier and Sari Narulita Conclusion and the way forwardTerry Sunderland, James Reed and Mirjam Ros-Tonen