Morocco 2021 Article Iv Consultation Press Release And Staff Report

Thanks to a successful vaccination campaign, COVID19 cases have declined sharply in 2021, and the Moroccan economy is rebounding. Economic activity has recovered most of the ground lost with the severe recession of 2020 and is expected to grow at 6.3 percent in 2021. Among the factors propelling the rebound are the exceptional harvest after two years of drought, continued fiscal and monetary stimulus, and the persistent buoyancy of remittances. Going forward, Morocco’s growth is expected to remain at about 3 percent, assuming the acceleration of new cases in early 2022 proves transitory and the effects of the pandemic on activity gradually fade. Recent inflationary pressures remained manageable and are expected to wane in 2022, as cost pressures from global and domestic supply disruptions are reabsorbed. After its sharp contraction in 2020, the current account deficit is projected to widen in 2021 and over the medium term, but Morocco emerges from the pandemic with a much stronger international reserve position.

Thanks to a successful vaccination campaign, COVID19 cases have declined sharply in 2021, and the Moroccan economy is rebounding. Economic activity has recovered most of the ground lost with the severe recession of 2020 and is expected to grow at 6.3 percent in 2021. Among the factors propelling the rebound are the exceptional harvest after two years of drought, continued fiscal and monetary stimulus, and the persistent buoyancy of remittances. Going forward, Morocco’s growth is expected to remain at about 3 percent, assuming the acceleration of new cases in early 2022 proves transitory and the effects of the pandemic on activity gradually fade. Recent inflationary pressures remained manageable and are expected to wane in 2022, as cost pressures from global and domestic supply disruptions are reabsorbed. After its sharp contraction in 2020, the current account deficit is projected to widen in 2021 and over the medium term, but Morocco emerges from the pandemic with a much stronger international reserve position.

Despite the authorities’ very strong policy response, another drought and the economic spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have taken a toll on Morocco’s economy and ignited inflationary pressures. Assuming a return to normal agricultural seasons, stabilization of external economic conditions, and continued progress on the authorities’ rich structural reform agenda, economic activity should rebound in 2023 and stabilize around 31⁄2 percent over the medium term. Inflation is projected to have peaked in 2022 and to start falling in 2023 as the commodity price shock dissipates and the central bank reduces monetary policy accommodation. The negative terms-of-trade shock widened the trade deficit in 2022, but Morocco’s external position is projected to improve from 2023 onwards, also thanks to strong remittances and tourism inflows.

The Moroccan economy once again showed resilience to negative shocks in 2023, as economic activity accelerated, inflation slowed, and the current account deficit narrowed despite headwinds from water scarcity (which caused a severe loss of jobs in the agricultural sector), the September 2023 earthquake, and lower growth in the Euro Area. The ambitious infrastructure plan announced by the authorities (including in water and energy sectors) is expected to boost investment and growth in the next few years, with the current account gradually converging towards the medium-term norm. The fiscal deficit in 2023 was below the level projected in the Budget and the authorities reiterated their commitment to a gradual fiscal consolidation over the next three years. Implementation of the structural reform agenda has continued, particularly regarding the overhaul of social protection, health care, and education systems.

The concomitant Covid-19 pandemic and oil price shock in 2020 have taken a heavy toll on the Algerian economy and the population. The authorities’ response helped mitigate the social and economic impact of the crisis. Nevertheless, the crisis exacerbated the Algerian economy’s vulnerabilities, making even more urgent the need for a new, more inclusive and sustainable, growth model. A recovery is underway in 2021, but the outlook remains challenging. While the recent rebound in hydrocarbon prices should buoy the recovery and ease immediate financing constraints, addressing long-standing structural challenges will help to realize Algeria’s vast growth potential for the benefit of its population.

This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Morocco discusses that gradually increasing growth, moderate inflation, and stronger external and fiscal buffers are expected over the medium term, benefiting from sustained reform implementation. However, this outlook remains subject to significant domestic and external risks: delays in implementing reforms, lower growth in key partner countries (particularly in the euro area), higher oil prices, geopolitical risks, and volatile financial conditions could weaken Morocco’s resilience and economic prospects. Building on progress achieved in recent years, further fiscal and structural reforms are needed to consolidate gains in macroeconomic resilience and achieve higher and more inclusive growth. The discussions mainly focused on strengthening the resilience of the economy through continued fiscal reforms, greater exchange rate flexibility, and strengthened financial sector soundness. It also highlighted the need for pushing ahead with mutually-reinforcing and properly sequenced reforms to raise growth and inclusion, including by improving public sector governance, promoting private sector development, and reducing inequalities.

As in many other countries in the world, the pandemic has exerted a heavy toll on Morocco’s population. Its economy has also been hit by a severe drought that affected agriculture output. The authorities’ prompt response has helped contain the social and economic damage from the shocks but could not avoid a severe contraction of GDP. The loss of tax revenues deteriorated the fiscal position, while the fall in tourism receipts widened the current account deficit. However, greater access to external borrowing, including the full drawing of the IMF Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) arrangement, has helped maintain international reserves at adequate levels so far in 2020. A gradual economic recovery is expected to begin in 2021, assuming the impact of the drought and the health crisis wane next year. The recent rise in COVID-19 cases, both in Morocco and its main trading partners, suggests that this outlook remains subject to significant downside risks.