Nutrition Transition And The Structure Of Global Food Demand

Estimating future demand for food is a critical aspect of global food security analyses. The process linking dietary changes to wealth is known as the nutrition transition and presents well-identified features that help to predict consumption changes in poor countries. This study proposes to represent the nutrition transition with a nonhomothetic, flexible-in-income, demand system, known as the Modified Implicitly Directly Additive Demand System (MAIDADS). The resulting model is transparent and estimated statistically based on cross-sectional information from FAOSTAT the statistical database of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. It captures the main features of the nutrition transition: rise in demand for calories associated with income growth; diversification of diets away from starchy staples; and a large increase in caloric demand for animal-based products, fats, and sweeteners. The estimated model is used to project food demand between 2010 and 2050 based on a set of plausible futures (trend projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios). The main results of these projections are as follows: (1) global food demand will increase by 46 percent, less than half the growth in the previous four decades; (2) this growth will be attributable mainly to lower-middle-income and low-income countries; (3) the structure of global food demand will change over the period, with a 95 percent increase in demand for animal-based calories and a much smaller 18 percent increase in demand for starchy staples; and (4) the analysis of a range of population and income projections reveals important uncertainties depending on the scenario, the projected increases in demand for animal-based and vegetal-based calories range from 78 to 109 percent and from 20 to 42 percent, respectively.

Estimating future demand for food is a critical aspect of global food security analyses. The process linking dietary changes to wealth is known as the nutrition transition and presents well-identified features that help to predict consumption changes in poor countries. This study proposes to represent the nutrition transition with a nonhomothetic, flexible-in-income demand system. The resulting model is estimated statistically based on cross-sectional information from FAOSTAT. The model captures the main features of the nutrition transition: rise in demand for calories associated with income growth; diversification of diets away from starchy staples; and a large increase in caloric demand for animal-based products, fats, and sweeteners. The estimated model is used to project food demand between 2010 and 2050 based on a set of plausible futures (trend projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios). The main results of these projections are: (a) global food demand will increase by 47%, less than half the growth in the previous four decades; (b) this growth will be attributable mainly to lower-middle-income and low-income countries; (c) the structure of global food demand will change over the period, with a doubling of demand for animal-based calories and a much smaller 19% increase in demand for starchy staples; and (d) the analysis of a range of population and income projections reveals important uncertainties--depending on the scenario, the projected increases in demand for animal-based and vegetal-based calories range from 74% to 114%, and from 20% to 42%, respectively.

Ensuring optimal diets and nutrition for the global population is a grand challenge fraught with many contentious issues. To achieve food security for all and protect health, we need functional, equitable, and sustainable food systems. Food systems are highly complex networks of individuals and institutions that depend on governance and policy leadership. This book explains how interconnected food systems and policies affect diets and nutrition in high-, middle-, and low-income countries. In tandem with food policy, food systems determine the availability, affordability, and nutritional quality of the food supply, which influences the diets that people are willing and able to consume. Readers will become familiar with both domestic and international food policy processes and actors, and they will be able to critically analyze and debate how policy and science affect diet and nutrition outcomes.

This book offers critical insights by international scholars, with chapters on global food security, supermarket power, new technologies, and sustainability. The book also assesses the contributions of diet and nutrition research in building socially just and environmentally sustainable food systems and provides policy recommendations to improve the health and environmental status of contemporary agri-food systems.

Hidden hunger is not about providing enough calories, it is about a lack of micronutrients, which has life-long consequences for the children who are mostly affected. This begins with physical and cognitive developmental disorders and continues with an increased risk of non-communicable diseases and the occurrence of obesity. The book compiles the contributions of the Fourth Congress on Hidden Hunger 2019 as original articles. The focus of the congress was the problem of malnutrition and overweight, which can coexist and is termed a “double burden”. Part of the book deals with the causes of malnutrition and the challenge of achieving an agricultural system that is more focused on food quality. Another part discusses the causes and intervention approaches to tackling childhood obesity, especially in connection with malnutrition. All in all, this publication is a summary of important work by highly renowned authors on the topic of the congress: “Hidden Hunger and the Transformation of Food Systems: How to Combat the Double Burden of Malnutrition?” Like its two predecessors, the book fills an important gap by summarizing the essential aspects for science, applied research, and politics at a high level.

This Modern Guide provides detailed theoretical and empirical insights into key areas of research in food economics. It takes a forward-looking perspective on how different actors in the food system shape the sustainability of food production, distribution, and consumption, as well as on major challenges to efficient and inclusive food systems.

Exploration of changing human nutrition from evolutionary and social perspectives and its influence on health and disease, past and present.

This book deals with the dramatic changes in diet and lifestyle that are occurring in the developing world as a result of globalization, and their impact on human healt. The Editors have assembled a leading group of scientists in teh fields of economics, population sciences, international health, medicine, nutrition and food sciences, to address each of the key issues related to the changes in demographic trends, food production and marketing, and disease patterns in the developing world. The Nutrition Transition provides essential information to understand the far-reaching effects that global economic, social and cultural trends are having on diet-related disease patersin in countries of transition. Contains numerous illustrative figures and tables Two case studies included-on China and Brazil Foreword written by Nevin Scrimshaw, recipient of the World Food Prize