Persistent Forecasting Of Disruptive Technologies Report 2

The term "disruptive technology" describes a technology that results in a sudden change affecting already established technologies or markets. Disruptive technologies cause one or more discontinuities in the normal evolutionary life cycle of technology. This may lead to an unexpected destabilization of an older technology order and an opportunity for new competitors to displace incumbents. Frequently cited examples include digital photography and desktop publishing. The first report of the series, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, discussed how technology forecasts were historically made, assessed various existing forecasting systems, and identified desirable attributes of a next-generation persistent long-term forecasting system for disruptive technologies. This second book attempts to sketch out high-level forecasting system designs. In addition, the book provides further evaluation of the system attributes defined in the first report, and evidence of the feasibility of creating a system with those attributes. Together, the reports are intended to help the Department of Defense and the intelligence community identify and develop a forecasting system that will assist in detecting and tracking global technology trends, producing persistent long-term forecasts of disruptive technologies, and characterizing their potential impact on future U.S. warfighting and homeland defense capabilities.

The term "disruptive technology" describes a technology that results in a sudden change affecting already established technologies or markets. Disruptive technologies cause one or more discontinuities in the normal evolutionary life cycle of technology. This may lead to an unexpected destabilization of an older technology order and an opportunity for new competitors to displace incumbents. Frequently cited examples include digital photography and desktop publishing. The first report of the series, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, discussed how technology forecasts were historically made, assessed various existing forecasting systems, and identified desirable attributes of a next-generation persistent long-term forecasting system for disruptive technologies. This second book attempts to sketch out high-level forecasting system designs. In addition, the book provides further evaluation of the system attributes defined in the first report, and evidence of the feasibility of creating a system with those attributes. Together, the reports are intended to help the Department of Defense and the intelligence community identify and develop a forecasting system that will assist in detecting and tracking global technology trends, producing persistent long-term forecasts of disruptive technologies, and characterizing their potential impact on future U.S. warfighting and homeland defense capabilities.

Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation.

Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation.

This book explores and analyzes emerging innovations within today’s most cutting-edge science and technology (S&T) areas, which are cited as carrying the potential to revolutionize governmental structures, economies, and international security. Some have argued that such technologies will yield doomsday scenarios and that military applications of such technologies have even greater potential than nuclear weapons to radically change the balance of power. As the United States looks to the future – whether dominated by extremist groups co-opting advanced weapons in the world of globalized non-state actors or states engaged in persistent regional conflicts in areas of strategic interest – new adversaries and new science and technology will emerge. Choices made today that affect science and technology will impact how ably the US can and will respond. Chapters within the book look at the changing strategic environment in which security operations are planned and conducted; how these impact science and technology policy choices made today; and predictions of how science and technology may play a beneficial or deleterious role in the future. Some game changing technologies have received global attention, while others may be less well known; the new technologies discussed within this proposal, as well as future discoveries, may significantly alter military capabilities and may generate new threats against military and civilian sectors.

​​​​​​Major societal challenges of a global nature include climate change, efficient energy supply, environmental sustainability, and health care. Science & Technology Policy (S&T) policy is an essential contributor to dealing with these challenges; moreover, international cooperation and collaboration in S&T is vital to tackling these issues, since no single nation or even region is able to respond adequately by itself. Within this context, this book addresses recent developments in transatlantic S&T cooperation between the European Union and the United States. The EU-U.S. relationship dates back to the 1950s, with regular EU-U.S. Summits to assess and develop transatlantic cooperation. In the area of S&T, the EU and U.S. concluded an S&T Cooperation Agreement in 1998, renewed it in 2004, and extended it for another five years in July 2009. The research underlying this study is based on interviews with key stakeholders in the field, with an emphasis on: • potential new opportunities and new mechanisms for increased transatlantic EU – U.S. S&T cooperation under current conditions • examples of coordinated “science diplomacy” efforts • options for the development of effective joint efforts. While the project is focused on European-U.S. relationships, it also addresses issues of international S&T cooperation involving other regions, including Africa and Asia. The author highlights the urgency of S&T cooperation to address global issues, and the evolving roles of government, universities and research centers, and industry, in promoting successful strategies and programs.

This book examines how disruptive technologies and innovation underpin the attainment of a broader development agenda in Africa. Contributors show how distinctive forms of technological innovation can impact critical development processes. For example, disruptive technologies can deepen the ongoing democratic and governance waves in Africa, specifically in the area of contested elections. Similarly, innovations in agriculture, the environment and energy promote changes in value chain agriculture, and the use of sensors to manage e-waste and sustainable energy conservation are also transforming established practices. Furthermore, the role of disruptive technologies and innovation in education, health, financial services and the nature of paid work cannot be ignored. Individually and collectively, the authors discuss and highlight the mechanisms and initiatives that can contribute to the realization of the development goals of African countries, especially in a period where disruptive technologies are rapidly changing how things are done. As a result, this book, which represents one of the most recent systematic efforts to bring together dialogue on disruptive technologies in Africa, will be of particular use and benefit to a wide and an eclectic audience.

"An accomplished architect and urbanist goes back to the roots of what makes cities attractive and livable, demonstrating how we can restore function and beauty to our urban spaces for the long term. Nearly everything we treasure in the worldÕs most beautiful cities was built over a century ago. Cities like Prague, Paris, and Lisbon draw millions of visitors from around the world because of their exquisite architecture, walkable neighborhoods, and human scale. Yet a great deal of the knowledge and practice behind successful city planning has been abandoned over the last hundred yearsÑnot because of traffic, population growth, or other practical hurdles, but because of ill-considered theories emerging from Modernism and reactions to it. The errors of urban design over the last century are too great not to question. The solutions being offered todayÑsustainability, walkability, smart and green technologiesÑhint at what has been lost and what may be regained, but they remain piecemeal and superficial. In The Art of Classic Planning, architect and planner Nir Haim Buras documents and extends the time-tested and holistic practices that held sway before the reign of Modernism. With hundreds of full-color illustrations and photographs that will captivate architects, planners, administrators, and developers, The Art of Classic Planning restores and revitalizes the foundations of urban planning. Inspired by venerable cities like Kyoto, Vienna, and Venice, and by the great successes of LÕEnfantÕs Washington, HaussmannÕs Paris, and BurnhamÕs Chicago, Buras combines theory and a host of examples to arrive at clear guidelines for best practices in classic planning for todayÕs world. The Art of Classic Planning celebrates the enduring principles of urban design and invites us to return to building beautiful cities."