Political Volatility In The United States

The unexpected shift from the election of Barack Obama and the post-racial hope to the racial confrontations in the Trump era begs the question: Why did such a big volatile swing happen in such a short period of time? Uncertainty reigns in volatile political times. This book aims to provide a systemic model for understanding how political volatility throughout the U.S. history has had its root in two competing racial and religious groupings. Moreover, the groupings grounded in white supremacy and egalitarianism have collided, contested, and facilitated the configuration and reconfiguration of the atomic political structure. As demonstrated in this book, the antagonism between the two competing identity groupings led to a history of political volatility in the United States. Contrary to the endless “political deadlocks” suggested by the scholars of American political development, this book explains how and why the two orders persist, reach peaks of volatility, and why one temporarily achieves prominence over the other. Going beyond the simplistic view of racial and religious hierarchy, this book provides an account rooted in structural tensions, strategic imperatives, opportunities, and threats on collective actions.

Why do American state economies grow at such vastly different rates and manifest such wide differences in living standards? Volatile States identifies the sources of rising living standards by examining the recent economic and fiscal history of the American states. With new insights about the factors that contribute to state economic success, the book departs from traditional analyses of economic performance in its emphasis on the role of volatility. Volatile States identifies institutions and policies that are key determinants of economic success and illustrates the considerable promise of a mean-variance criterion for assessing state economic performance. The mean-variance perspective amends applications of growth models that rely on the mobility of productive factors keyed to income levels alone. Simply measuring the level of growth in state economies reveals an incomplete and perhaps distorted picture of performance. Taking the volatility of state economies explicitly into account refines the whole notion of "economic success." This book is essential reading for economists, political scientists, and policy-makers who routinely confront questions about the consequences of alternative institutional arrangements and economic policy choices. W. Mark Crain is Professor of Economics and Research Associate, James M. Buchanan Center for Political Economy, George Mason University.

The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability on economic growth. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004, we find that higher degrees of political instability are associated with lower growth rates of GDP per capita. Regarding the channels of transmission, we find that political instability adversely affects growth by lowering the rates of productivity growth and, to a smaller degree, physical and human capital accumulation. Finally, economic freedom and ethnic homogeneity are beneficial to growth, while democracy may have a small negative effect.

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Economic voting is common around the world, but in many developing countries economic performance is dependent on exogenous international factors.

This paper analyzes and tests the influence of political instability on economic vulnerability in the context of the 1994 and 1997 crises episodes. It constructs four political variables that aim at quantifying political instability. The paper finds that for countries with weak economic fundamentals and low reserves, political instability has a strong impact on economic vulnerability. The estimation results suggest that including political variables in economic models does improve their power to explain and predict economic crises. The paper concludes that countries are more economically vulnerable during and especially following election periods, and when election results are less stable than at other times.

Every day, in every sector of our economy, a business shuts down while another starts up, jobs are created while others are cut, and workers are hired while others are laid off. This constant flux, or turbulence, is a defining characteristic of our free market system, yet it mostly inspires angst about unemployment, loss of earnings, and the overall competitiveness of corporations. But is this endless cycle of fluctuation really so bad for America? Might something positive be going on in the economy as a result of it? In this penetrating work, three esteemed economists seek to answer these questions by exploring the real impact of volatility on American workers and businesses alike. According to the authors, while any number of events--shifts in consumer demand, changes in technology, mergers and acquisitions, or increased competition--can contribute to economic turbulence, our economy as a whole is, by and large, stronger for it, because these processes of creation and destruction make it more flexible and adaptable. The authors also acknowledge and document the adverse consequences of this turbulence on different groups of workers and firms and discuss the resulting policy challenges. Basing their argument on an up-close look into the dealings and practices of five key industries—financial services, retail food services, trucking, semiconductors, and software—the authors demonstrate the positive effects of turbulence on career paths, employee earnings, and firm performance. The first substantial attempt to disentangle and make clear the complexities of this phenomenon in the United States, Economic Turbulence will be viewed as a major achievement and the centerpiece of any discussion on the subject for years to come.

This book explores the volatile and uncertain future of democracies in Asia through typological analysis of the diverse patterns of Asian countries. Detailed analysis and extensive case studies featured throughout this edited volume unveil democracies in the process of being consolidated, such as Taiwan and South Korea; precarious democracies, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines; states that are experiencing setbacks and a retreat from democracy, such as Thailand and Myanmar; and finally, states that are still resisting democracy, including China. Key findings articulate that Asian democracies do not follow existing models or patterns—such as that of Western democracy—but are instead lively, emergent works in progress. Environments in which democracy is practiced in Asia reflect local people’s pluralistic imagination of democracy; hence a comparative thematic approach is adopted. Contributors originate from Japan, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand, each presenting regional insights into the unique challenges and movements of their respective nations, from staging protests in Bangkok to military coup in Myanmar. Opening new dialogue in the study of democracy, The Volatility and Future of Democracies in Asia will appeal to students and scholars of political science, comparative politics, international development, democracy studies, and Asian studies more broadly. .