Privilege Resistant Policies In The Middle East And North Africa

Renewing the social contract, one of the pillars of the new World Bank Group strategy for the Middle East and North Africa, requires a new development model built on greater trust; openness, transparency, inclusive and accountable service delivery; and a stronger private sector that can create jobs and opportunities for the youth of the region. Recent analytic work trying to explain weak job creation and insufficient private sector dynamism in the region point to formal and informal barriers to entry and competition. These barriers privilege a few (often unproductive) incumbents who enjoy a competition-edge due to their connections or ability to influence policy making and delivery. Policy recommendations to date in the field of governance for private sector policymaking have been too general and too removed from concrete, actionable policy outcomes. This report proposes -for the first time- to fill this policy and operational gap by answering the following question: What good governance features should be instilled in the design of economic policies and institutions to help shield them from capture, discretion and arbitrary implementation? The report proposes an innovative conceptual and measurement framework that encapsulates the governance features that could shield policies from capture, discretion and arbitrary enforcement that limits competition. The report offers a menu of operational and technical entry-points to enhance privilege-resistant policy making in a concrete way, that is politically tractable in different country contexts.

Middle East and North Africa Investment Policy Perspectives highlights the considerable progress in investment policies made by the region’s governments over the past decade. Yet, the reform momentum needs to be sustained and deepened for the benefits of investment to be shared with society at large and for growth to be sustainable, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting global economic upheaval.

The long-standing informality debate in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region has taken on a new urgency as it looks for a pathway to more socially inclusive growth that is less reliant on fossil fuels. This is occurring against a backdrop of subpar labor market outcomes, further growth setbacks, and deteriorating fiscal and current account deficits in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic--and in the wake of high inflation and supply chain disruptions triggered by the Russian Federation-Ukraine war. 'Informality and Inclusive Growth in the Middle East and North Africa' aims to better understand the characteristics and incentive structure that have led to the prevalence of informal employment in three MENA countries--the Arab Republic of Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. The report breaks new ground by adopting a comprehensive perspective to focus on the features of, and interrelationships among, different aspects of these countries' institutional landscapes to make sense of the complex incentive structure that workers and firms face when deciding between formal and informal options. Specifically, the report groups these issues in three broad realms: (1) entrepreneur-worker relations, (2) taxes and transfers, and (3) market conditions. 'This report is an extremely welcome addition to the literature on MENA labor markets. By analyzing the incentive structure and institutional factors that have led to the prevalence of informal employment in Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia, it points the way to policy actions that can be taken to reduce informality and increase social protection for workers. It is a must-read for anyone who cares about greater economic inclusion in MENA.' --Ragui Assaad, Professor, Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota 'A compelling account of the implications of informality in the workforce and how economies of MENA can design appropriate policy responses. This timely report comes amid multiple social reforms in MENA and is a must-read for policy practitioners and economists in the region.' --Karim El Aynaoui, Executive President, Policy Center for the New South 'This report is particularly timely given the negative impact the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent crises have had on living standards and poverty rates around the world and especially in MENA countries. While the focus on boosting growth and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals has revolved around financing, the report sheds new light on the benefits that tackling informality through institutional, regulatory, and policy changes could present to achieving these goals.' --Mahmoud Mohieldin, Executive Director, International Monetary Fund

In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), trade liberalization measures have coincided with stable economic growth, and GDP per capita growth has surpassed that of other developing regions. However, MENA's labor-market outcomes--such as average wage levels, informality rate, and female labor force participation--continue to underperform. Why has rising trade failed to produce better labor market outcomes in low- and middle-income countries in the region? 'Exports to Improve Labor Markets in the Middle East and North Africa' focuses on the impact of trade policy on trade-flows and their relationship with local labor market outcomes in three low- and middle-income countries--the Arab Republic of Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. Given their idiosyncratic labor markets, export diversification, and trade policy history, these three countries other important lessons for economic development in the region. Policy makers and stakeholders can use these findings to design policies to improve the chances that higher trade flows will deliver better labor market outcomes and ensure that the benefits are more equally shared. 'This report, led by Gladys Lopez-Acevedo and Raymond Robertson, pushes forward the frontier of knowledge about the relationship between trade and the labor market in MENA. Although focusing on three countries (the Arab Republic of Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia), it gives us broader lessons on how to solve the apparent puzzle of greater exposure to trade not being followed by greater labor market outcomes in the region. It points out, among other factors, how market segmentation by gender shapes the effects of trade shocks like higher exports. Policy makers in the region will definitely benefit from the evidence and analysis conveyed by the report on how to turn trade integration into a lever for shared prosperity.' --Otaviano Canuto, Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, and former Vice President of the World Bank 'This timely report attempts to understand why trade expansion did not produce the desired improvements in labor market outcomes in three non-oil-exporting countries in MENA. The main reason for the weak link between trade expansion and widely shared labor market improvements appears to be the segmented nature of labor markets in the three countries, by gender as well as by formality status. In Morocco and Tunisia, the highly segmented labor markets along gender lines, in combination with the concentration of trade in male-dominated capital-intensive sectors, led to few employment benefits accruing to women. In Egypt, the limited impact of trade on formal employment is attributable to the small size of the nation’s export sector and its lack of integration with the rest of the economy. These findings are critical to understanding how barriers to widely shared prosperity can be tackled in the region.' --Ragui Assaad, Professor, Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota

COVID-19 is one of multiple crises to have hit the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in the decade following the Arab Spring. War, oil price declines, economic slowdowns, and now a pandemic are tearing at the social fabric of a region characterized by high rates of unemployment, high levels of informality, and low annual economic growth. The economic costs of the pandemic are estimated at about US$227 billion, and fiscal support packages across MENA are averaging 2.7 percent of GDP, putting pressure on already weak fiscal balances and making a quick recovery challenging. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, MENA was the only region in the world experiencing increases in poverty and declines in life satisfaction. Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa Region investigates how COVID-19 changed the welfare of individuals and households in the region. It does so by relying on phone surveys implemented across the region and complements these with microsimulation exercises to assess the impact of COVID-19 on jobs, income, poverty, and inequality. The two approaches complement and corroborate each other's results, thereby making the findings more robust and richer. This report's results show that, in the short run, poverty rates in MENA will increase significantly and inequality will widen. A group of 'new poor' is likely to emerge that may have difficulty recovering from the economic consequences of COVID-19. The report adds value by analyzing newly gathered primary data, along with projections based on newly modeled micro- and macrosimulations, and by identifying key issues that policy makers should focus on to enable a quick, inclusive, and sustained economic recovery.

While economic and social indicators in many Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries have improved over the past three decades, the region’s blue natural assets—clean air, healthy seas, and coastlines—have degraded virtually everywhere. Air pollution levels in the region’s cities are among the highest in the world. Per capita marine plastic pollution is among the highest in the world; coastal erosion rates are the second fastest in the world. These combined challenges threaten local communities, livelihoods, and economies. In fact, the economic cost of MENA’s deteriorating skies and seas is estimated at more than 3 percent of GDP per year. Blue Skies, Blue Seas: Air Pollution, Marine Plastics, and Coastal Erosion in the Middle East and North Africa reviews integrated solutions that the authors identify as the “four I’s†?: • Inform stakeholders about the sources of these challenges. • Provide incentives that improve environmental outcomes for the public and the private sector. • Strengthen institutions to lower air and plastic pollution and to mitigate uncontrolled development and erosion of coastlines. • Invest in abatement options and promote sustainable solutions. Restoring MENA’s blue skies and seas will benefit the health, livelihoods, and incomes of residents. There will inevitably be trade-offs, but choosing a path of green growth will create jobs, diversify economies, and make the region a better place for current and future generations. The actions of policy makers today will shape the trajectory of economies and communities for decades to come.

Part I of this report discusses the short- and medium-term growth prospects for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The region is expected to grow at a subdued rate of 0.6 percent in 2019, rising to 2.6 percent in 2020 and 2.9 percent in 2021. The growth forecast for 2019 is revised down by 0.8 percentage points from the April 2019 projection. MENA’s economic outlook is subject to substantial downside risks—most notably, intensified global economic headwinds and rising geopolitical tensions. Part II argues that promoting fair competition is key for MENA countries to complete the transition from an administered to a market economy. Part II first examines current competition policies in MENA countries and to promote fair competition calls for strengthening competition law and enforcement agencies. It also calls for corporatizing state-owned enterprises, promoting the private sector and creating a level-playing field between them. Any moves to reform MENA economies would be aided by professional management of public assets, which could tap into a new source of national wealth.

Eruptions of Popular Anger: The Economics of the Arab Spring and Its Aftermath sets out to answer three puzzles—the “Arab inequality†? puzzle of civil uprisings in countries with low-to-moderate and stagnant economic inequality, the “unhappy development†? paradox of increasing dissatisfaction at a time of moderate-to-rapid development, and the paradox of political violence in middle-income countries. The book’s empirical investigation rules out high and rising inequality as a reason for the Arab Spring uprisings. It shows that the real problem was the erosion in middle-class incomes and the growing dissatisfaction with the quality of life, the shortage of formal sector jobs, and corruption. Frustration was particularly high among the young, educated, middle-class residents in urban areas. The old social contract, which had delivered development results in the past and under which Arab governments provided public-sector jobs and subsidized services in return for subdued voice, was unsustainable and malfunctioning. The public sector could no longer be the employer of choice, but the private sector did not generate enough formal sector jobs, because of distortions that constrained its growth and policies that offered advantages to a few firms with political connections, limiting competition and private investment. The breakdown in the social contract increased the premium on freedom and created impetus for political change. This report shows that the Arab Spring revolutions and the subsequent spread of violence and civil wars in the post†“Arab Spring Middle East and North Africa region can be traced to the broken social contract, institutional weaknesses, and regional divisions in societies polarized along ethnic and sectarian lines. The Arab Spring and its aftermath indicate the need for a new social contract under which governments promote private-sector job creation, design public services in a way that holds providers accountable to beneficiaries, and promote inclusion and good governance.