Prospects For Democratic Transition In A Post Castro Cuba

The tidal wave of democracy has yet to crash across the shores of Cuba primarily because the colossal personal of Fidel Castro has obstructed its path. What will happen when Castro is gone from the political scene? What forces, if any, exist on the Caribbean Island that would encourage change? Is the wave of democracy simply circling Cuba awaiting Castro's downfall or has Fidel created a breakwater that will keep his revolution alive well past his death? Castro's passing will undoubtedly bring about a leadership vacuum in Cuba that will thrust the island further along a transitional path, a path that began when Cuba lost its Soviet benefacton The purpose of this thesis is to explore the transition path Cuba has been on since the collapse of the Soviet Union in four key arenas: political society, economic society, civil society, and the international arena. It will also determine if these alterations have helped pave the way for liberalization and a transition to democracy after Castro is gone. In short, this thesis argues that what occurs in Cuba before Castro dies will determine what happens after he dies. Recommendations for U.S. policy are made based on the findin%s in this thesis.

When the end of the Castro era arrives, the successor government and the Cuban people will need to answer certain questions: How is Castro's more than four-decade rule likely to affect a post-Castro Cuba? What will be the political, social, and economic challenges Cuba will confront? What are the impediments to Cuba's economic development and democratic transition? The authors examine Castro's political legacies, Cuba's generational and racial divisions, its demographic predicament, the legacy of a centralized economy, and the need for industrial restructuring.

Master's Thesis from the year 2008 in the subject Politics - Political Systems - General and Comparisons, grade: 1,3, Vilnius University, 60 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: This thesis studies the prospects for democratic transition in Cuba and Belarus. The theoretical part argues that civil society is an important variable in transition theory and a necessary condition for democratic transition. It furthermore argues that in relation with the political culture of one society and the respective type of regime present in one country it is decisive for a successful democratization. Therefore the theoretical framework to study democratic transition should be widened from elites to masses and from a short term perspective to a long term one. This is somewhat different from other studies that concentrate on structural factors like economic development, economic crisis or international influence to explain democratic transition. This thesis undertakes a qualitative comparative analysis of two nontransition cases, Belarus and Cuba, to avoid the selection bias of researching only successful cases of democratic transition and to solve the problem of not finding any individually necessary or jointly sufficient conditions for democratization. The aforementioned factors are analyzed for each case, comparing the main findings and drawing conclusions. The analysis shows that the state of civil society in both countries can only be characterized as embryonic. In the case of Belarus the relatively good starting position of the embryonic civil society after the dissolution of the USSR was not used to strengthen itself. The civil society forces lost continuously support and strength and therefore the ability to fight for democratic transition. The weakness of the Belarusian civil society was therefore a factor that led to a stabilizing of the authoritarian regime.

Mañana in Cuba is a comprehensive analysis of contemporary Cuba with an incisive perspective of the Cuban frame of mind and its relevancy for Cuba's future. Part one of the book critically explores the mindset Cubans have developed living under a totalitarian system and introduces modern concepts of choice architecture and governance that can be employed Mañana in Cuba to foster a democratic civil society. Part two turns to a discussion of the principles that should guide sociopolitical and economic transition policies in line with Cuban culture and history. Mañana in Cuba offers a sophisticated analysis of the challenges and opportunities that will be present in post-Castro Cuba with an eye to intelligent, nuanced, and often "outside the box" solutions to aid business and government policymakers interested in Cuba's future. A unique aspect of this book is that it does not seek to unnaturally mend a decimated civil society, but rather, it offers policy approaches anchored on current Cuban ethos and society. This is a book about finding ways to facilitate the Cuban transition from totalitarianism and a centrally planned economy to liberal democracy and a free-market economic system. As the author argues, the alternative visions presented for Cuba's future matter because one of them will crystallize into the sociopolitical and economic narrative of the country for generations to come.

There is no handier guide to the Castro regime and the debates swirling around it.-Foreign Affairs Appearing in the aftermath of the stunning events surrounding the Elian Gonzalez case, the nature of Cuban Communism has again become a core issue for the American people. Cuban Communism has widely come to be known as "the Bible of Cuban Studies." It has been updated and upgraded for the fourth decade of Castro's successful seizure of power, the longest running dictatorship in the world. In addition to articles and essays representing recent developments in Cuba, the work boasts an update of three new features that will make it even more important to students, scholars, and researchers in the area. The volume has an entirely new section on future prospects for civil society and democracy for Cuba in a post-Castro environment. It also contains a chronology of events from 1959 through 2000 that will be important as a guide for studying the period. Finally, the work contains a brief but carefully constructed who's who of important players in Cuba and the regime during the Castro-period. Some of the articles new to the tenth edition of Cuban Communism are by Ernesto Betancourt, "Technical Assistance Needs for Institutional Transformation"; Andrew Natsios, "Humanitarian Assistance During a Democratic Transition in Cuba"; Juan J. Lopez, "Non-Transition in Cuba"; Michael Radu, "United States and Cuba after Castro"; Sergio Diaz-Briquets, "International Lending Institutions in Cuba's Transition Process," and "Future Security Issues between the United States and Cuba" by Brian Latell. This edition sheds new light on why, despite predictions of imminent collapse, the Castro regime has remained in power. It offers insights into the survival potential of dictatorships and illegitimate regimes despite crisis and ostracism. It is, more than ever, a must volume for those interested in comparative political systems and social structures. Irving Louis Horowitz is Hannah Arendt Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Sociology and Political Science at Rutgers University. Among his works are Three Worlds of Development, Beyond Empire and Revolution, and the Bacardi Lectures on Cuba, published as The Conscience of Worms and the Cowardice of Lions. Jaime Suchlicki is Bacardi Professor of History at the Graduate School of International Studies at the University of Miami, and executive director of its Cuban-American and Cuban Center. He is author of From Columbus to Castro, University Students and Revolution in Cuba, and Mexico: From Montezuma to Nafta, Chiapas and Beyond .

The contributors to this collection offer a range of views on the growing political and economic challenges facing the Castro regime, how these challenges will be met, and Cuba's prospects for a peaceful transition to democracy.

This thesis discusses key aspects of the democratization process in post-Castro Cuba following a destructive and chaotic transition of power. The theories of leading democracy and economic theorists are applied to the post- Castro conflict scenario as relevant issues to be addressed by a new Cuban government and the United States in a Cuban transition to democracy. Additionally, the ongoing U.S. efforts in Iraq provided a unique window of opportunity for further scrutiny of democratization theory as select lessons learned from the rebuilding of Iraq are compared to the future democratic transition of Cuba. Even though this thesis took this unique perspective in the democratic transition environment, the resulting research and analysis supported existing theories about the intertwining of political and economic development. The major distinction appears to be the need for greater flexibility in the process, post-conflict, due to the ambiguity involved. What needs to be fixed or rebuilt in Cuba will depend on the severity of damage to the political and economic infrastructure. The theorists selected have been helpful in opening doors for what is relevant during the rebuilding and democratization process, but as was expected, there is not a definitive process to achieving democracy and a free-market economy.

This report presents conference proceedings from "The RAND Forum on Cuba" (Washington, D.C., 1998), which was convened to examine the future of Cuba and to discuss U.S. policy options towards a Cuba under and after Fidel Castro.