Proving History

This in-depth discussion of New Testament scholarship and the challenges of history as a whole proposes Bayes’s Theorem, which deals with probabilities under conditions of uncertainty, as a solution to the problem of establishing reliable historical criteria. The author demonstrates that valid historical methods—not only in the study of Christian origins but in any historical study—can be described by, and reduced to, the logic of Bayes’s Theorem. Conversely, he argues that any method that cannot be reduced to this theorem is invalid and should be abandoned. Writing with thoroughness and clarity, the author explains Bayes’s Theorem in terms that are easily understandable to professional historians and laypeople alike, employing nothing more than well-known primary school math. He then explores precisely how the theorem can be applied to history and addresses numerous challenges to and criticisms of its use in testing or justifying the conclusions that historians make about the important persons and events of the past. The traditional and established methods of historians are analyzed using the theorem, as well as all the major "historicity criteria" employed in the latest quest to establish the historicity of Jesus. The author demonstrates not only the deficiencies of these approaches but also ways to rehabilitate them using Bayes’s Theorem. Anyone with an interest in historical methods, how historical knowledge can be justified, new applications of Bayes’s Theorem, or the study of the historical Jesus will find this book to be essential reading.

One of the world's leading historians delivers a pathbreaking analysis of truth and rhetoric in the writing of history.

'This book offers an excellent explanation of the scientific method and its use, through case studies from astronomy, physics, and philosophy. Summing Up: Recommended. Lower- and upper-division undergraduates. General readers.'CHOICE'In summary this is a lovely, elegant book which reminds us that physics is not an exercise in mathematics but a self-consistent system of thought based on measurement and informed observation which depends on interpretation by the human mind in the context of the science of the day. It is a valuable reminder of the underlying human quality in physics that gets lost in the 'shut up and calculate' methodology of the more esoteric branches of the science.'The ObservatoryWe know the Earth rotates, but how do we know? When and how did it become reasonable to believe that the Earth rotates?This book offers a historical account, from ancient Greek science to the theory of relativity and ultimately to videos taken from outer space, of how this widely known truth came to be. Using an accessible and entertaining narrative suitable for anyone interested in astronomy, physics, or the history of either, Kosso clarifies the use of evidence to prove that the Earth rotates, and deals with the tension between the claims that the Earth is absolutely in motion, yet all motion is relative. The book also explores the general nature of scientific evidence and method, and confronts challenges to science from outside the discipline.

Reprint of the original, first published in 1843.