Real Option Analysis And Climate Change

This book sets out to reframe the theory of real options so that it can be used to support environmental investments for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Climate change policy often involves making decisions that concern extended time periods, and doing so under considerable uncertainty. By expanding and broadening the framework of real options, this book first introduces readers to new ways of quantifying investment decisions that can much more effectively address the shape and size of the uncertainty than traditional approaches using Net Present Value. In turn, the second part of the book applies this new theoretical framework to climate change policy by presenting a number of examples, and by providing a general perspective on investment decisions related to climate change and how to prioritize them.

Climate change represents an increasing threat to the continued development of the people, preservation of ecosystems, and economic growth of Asia and the Pacific. Mainstreaming climate risk management in all aspects of development is thus key to an effective transition to climate-resilient development pathways. ADB's climate risk management framework aims to reduce risks resulting from climate change to investment projects in Asia and the Pacific. A key step in this framework is the technical and economic valuation of climate-proofing measures. This report describes the conduct of the cost-benefit analysis of climate proofing investment projects. An important message is that the presence of uncertainty about climate change does not invalidate the conduct of the economic analysis of investment projects, nor does it require a new type of economic analysis. However, the presence of uncertainty does require a different type of decision-making process in which technical and economic expertise combine to present decision makers with the best possible information on the economic efficiency of alternative designs of investment projects.

"Mun demystifies real options analysis and delivers a powerful, pragmatic guide for decision-makers and practitioners alike. Finally, there is a book that equips professionals to easily recognize, value, and seize real options in the world around them." --Jim Schreckengast, Senior VP, R&D Strategy, Gemplus International SA, France Completely revised and updated to meet the challenges of today's dynamic business environment, Real Options Analysis, Second Edition offers you a fresh look at evaluating capital investment strategies by taking the strategic decision-making process into consideration. This comprehensive guide provides both a qualitative and quantitative description of real options; the methods used in solving real options; why and when they are used; and the applicability of these methods in decision making.

This publication sets out the challenge for freshwater in a changing climate and provides policy guidance on how to navigate this new "waterscape". It examines the range and complexity of possible changes in the water cycle and the challenges of making practical, on-site adaptation decisions for water. It offers policymakers a risk-based framework and guidance to "know", "cap" and "manage" water risks in order to provide flexibility and improve decisions despite the lack of reliable predictions. It draws insights from a stock take of current policy efforts to adapt water systems across all 34 member countries and the European Union, including water-related aspects of National Adaptation Plans and Strategies, specific policy measures, and financing programmes. Finally, the report examines the use of economic instruments to promote adaptation (e.g. insurance schemes, water markets and banks, water pricing), incentives for ‘green’ infrastructure and ecosystem-based approaches, and financing issues.

Climate change poses a risk to business operations and to markets, and a poor business response to this risk can lead to reputational damage, or worse. At the same time, climate change can bring opportunities for some businesses. In this addition to Gower’s series of Short Guides to Business Risk, Professor Arnell, one of the world’s leading experts in the field, reviews this critical area of risk posed to businesses and other organisations by climate change and considers how they can respond to this threat. A Short Guide to Climate Change Risk focuses on the impacts and consequences of climate change rather than on business use of energy or business and 'sustainability' issues. The author examines the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches to addressing these risks, with international case study examples. With chapters on the nature, science and politics of climate change, on the assessment and management of climate change risks, and recommendations for incorporating climate change risks into a Company Risk Management System, this concise guide serves the needs of business students and practitioners across a wide range of sectors, public and private.

This publication sets out the challenge for freshwater in a changing climate and provides policy guidance on how to navigate this new "waterscape".

Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.

This report addresses the fundamental challenges that climate change poses to infrastructure owners, who face two major challenges. First, they must ensure continued asset performance under sometimes significantly modified climate conditions that may decrease the present value of their networks ...