Sequential Analysis

The inventor of a statistical inference system book describes his system and its applications. Discusses the general theory of the sequential probability ratio test, with comparisons to traditional statistical inference systems; applications that illustrate the general theory and of theoretical interest specific to these applications; possible approaches to the problem of sequential multi-valued decisions and estimation.

The modern theory of Sequential Analysis came into existence simultaneously in the United States and Great Britain in response to demands for more efficient sampling inspection procedures during World War II. The develop ments were admirably summarized by their principal architect, A. Wald, in his book Sequential Analysis (1947). In spite of the extraordinary accomplishments of this period, there remained some dissatisfaction with the sequential probability ratio test and Wald's analysis of it. (i) The open-ended continuation region with the concomitant possibility of taking an arbitrarily large number of observations seems intol erable in practice. (ii) Wald's elegant approximations based on "neglecting the excess" of the log likelihood ratio over the stopping boundaries are not especially accurate and do not allow one to study the effect oftaking observa tions in groups rather than one at a time. (iii) The beautiful optimality property of the sequential probability ratio test applies only to the artificial problem of testing a simple hypothesis against a simple alternative. In response to these issues and to new motivation from the direction of controlled clinical trials numerous modifications of the sequential probability ratio test were proposed and their properties studied-often by simulation or lengthy numerical computation. (A notable exception is Anderson, 1960; see III.7.) In the past decade it has become possible to give a more complete theoretical analysis of many of the proposals and hence to understand them better.

Sequential Experimentation in Clinical Trials: Design and Analysis is developed from decades of work in research groups, statistical pedagogy, and workshop participation. Different parts of the book can be used for short courses on clinical trials, translational medical research, and sequential experimentation. The authors have successfully used the book to teach innovative clinical trial designs and statistical methods for Statistics Ph.D. students at Stanford University. There are additional online supplements for the book that include chapter-specific exercises and information. Sequential Experimentation in Clinical Trials: Design and Analysis covers the much broader subject of sequential experimentation that includes group sequential and adaptive designs of Phase II and III clinical trials, which have attracted much attention in the past three decades. In particular, the broad scope of design and analysis problems in sequential experimentation clearly requires a wide range of statistical methods and models from nonlinear regression analysis, experimental design, dynamic programming, survival analysis, resampling, and likelihood and Bayesian inference. The background material in these building blocks is summarized in Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 and certain sections in Chapter 6 and Chapter 7. Besides group sequential tests and adaptive designs, the book also introduces sequential change-point detection methods in Chapter 5 in connection with pharmacovigilance and public health surveillance. Together with dynamic programming and approximate dynamic programming in Chapter 3, the book therefore covers all basic topics for a graduate course in sequential analysis designs.

Sequential Analysis: Hypothesis Testing and Changepoint Detection systematically develops the theory of sequential hypothesis testing and quickest changepoint detection. It also describes important applications in which theoretical results can be used efficiently. The book reviews recent accomplishments in hypothesis testing and changepoint detecti

Behavioral scientists – including those in psychology, infant and child development, education, animal behavior, marketing and usability studies – use many methods to measure behavior. Systematic observation is used to study relatively natural, spontaneous behavior as it unfolds sequentially in time. This book emphasizes digital means to record and code such behavior; while observational methods do not require them, they work better with them. Key topics include devising coding schemes, training observers and assessing reliability, as well as recording, representing and analyzing observational data. In clear and straightforward language, this book provides a thorough grounding in observational methods along with considerable practical advice. It describes standard conventions for sequential data and details how to perform sequential analysis with a computer program developed by the authors. The book is rich with examples of coding schemes and different approaches to sequential analysis, including both statistical and graphical means.

This book gives a general view of sequence analysis, the statistical study of successions of states or events. It includes innovative contributions on life course studies, transitions into and out of employment, contemporaneous and historical careers, and political trajectories. The approach presented in this book is now central to the life-course perspective and the study of social processes more generally. This volume promotes the dialogue between approaches to sequence analysis that developed separately, within traditions contrasted in space and disciplines. It includes the latest developments in sequential concepts, coding, atypical datasets and time patterns, optimal matching and alternative algorithms, survey optimization, and visualization. Field studies include original sequential material related to parenting in 19th-century Belgium, higher education and work in Finland and Italy, family formation before and after German reunification, French Jews persecuted in occupied France, long-term trends in electoral participation, and regime democratization. Overall the book reassesses the classical uses of sequences and it promotes new ways of collecting, formatting, representing and processing them. The introduction provides basic sequential concepts and tools, as well as a history of the method. Chapters are presented in a way that is both accessible to the beginner and informative to the expert.

Mothers and infants exchanging gleeful vocalizations, married couples discussing their problems, children playing, birds courting and monkeys fighting have this in common: their interactions with others unfold over time. Almost anyone who is interested can observe and describe such phenomena. But usually scientists demand more. They want observations that are replicable and amenable to scientific analysis, while still faithful to the dynamics of the phenomena studied. This book provides a straightforward introduction to scientific methods for observing social behavior. Because of the importance of time in the dynamics of social interaction, sequential approaches to analyzing and understanding social behavior are emphasized. An advanced knowledge of statistical analysis is not required. Instead, the authors present fundamental concepts and offer practical advice.

Sequential analysis refers to the body of statistical theory and methods where the sample size may depend in a random manner on the accumulating data. A formal theory in which optimal tests are derived for simple statistical hypotheses in such a framework was developed by Abraham Wald in the early 1