Stochastic Discounted Cash Flow

This open access book discusses firm valuation, which is of interest to economists, particularly those working in finance. Firm valuation comes down to the calculation of the discounted cash flow, often only referred to by its abbreviation, DCF. There are, however, different coexistent versions, which seem to compete against each other, such as entity approaches and equity approaches. Acronyms are often used, such as APV (adjusted present value) or WACC (weighted average cost of capital), two concepts classified as entity approaches. This book explains why there are several procedures and whether they lead to the same result. It also examines the economic differences between the methods and indicates the various purposes they serve. Further it describes the limits of the procedures and the situations they are best applied to. The problems this book addresses are relevant to theoreticians and practitioners alike.

This paper presents two stocks recommendation systems based on a stochastic characterization of firm present value that extends the conventional discounted cash flow analysis. In the Single-Stock Quantile recommendation system, the market price of a company's stocks is compared with the estimated distribution of the company fair value to obtain an individual measure of mispricing, while in the Cross-Sectional Quantile system, a relative measure of mispricing is built using the fair value distribution of all firms at the same time. Both systems use mispricing information to build sell side and buy side portfolios. We provide a series of statistical exercises that show how these portfolios can consistently deliver significant excess returns, also when rebalancing costs are accounted for.

Analysis and insights from top thought leaders on a pivotal topic in investing and asset management Valuation is the cornerstone for investment analysis, and a thorough understanding and correct application of valuation methodologies are critical for long-term investing success. Edited by two leading valuation experts from CFA Institute, this book brings together the insights and expertise of some of the most astute and successful investment minds of the past 50 years. From Benjamin Graham, the “father of value investing,” to Aswath Damodaran, you’ll learn what these investment luminaries have to say about investment valuation techniques, including earnings and cash flow analysis. Features the best thinking on valuation from the industry’s masters on the topic, supplemented with dozens of fascinating and instructive real-world examples Comprehensively discusses special valuation situations, such as real options, employee stock options, highly leveraged firms, corporate takeovers, and more Supplies you with the tools you need to successfully navigate and thrive in the ever-changing financial markets Is being produced with the full support and input of CFA Institute, the world’s leading association of investment professionals

Firm valuation is currently a very exciting topic. It is interesting for those economists engaged in either practice or theory, particularly for those in finance. The literature on firm valuation recommends logical, quantitative methods, which deal with establishing today's value of future free cash flows. In this respect firm valuation is identical with the calculation of the discounted cash flow, DCF. There are, however, different coexistent versions, which seem to compete against each other. Entity approach and equity approach are thus differentiated. Acronyms are often used, such as APV (adjusted present value) or WACC (weighted average cost of capital), whereby these two concepts are classified under entity approach. Why are there several procedures and not just one? Do they all lead to the same result? If not, where do the economic differences lie? If so, for what purpose are different methods needed? And further: do the known procedures suffice? Or are there situations where none of the concepts developed up to now delivers the correct value of the firm? If so, how is the appropriate valuation formula to be found? These questions are not just interesting for theoreticians; even the practitioner who is confronted with the task of marketing his or her results has to deal with it. The authors systematically clarify the way in which these different variations of the DCF concept are related throughout the book ENDORSEMENTS FOR LÖFFLER: DISCOUNTED 0-470-87044-3 "Compared with the huge number of books on pragmatic approaches to discounted cash flow valuation, there are remarkably few that lay out the theoretical underpinnings of this technique. Kruschwitz and Löffler bring together the theory in this area in a consistent and rigorous way that should be useful for all serious students of the topic." --Ian Cooper, London Business School "This treatise on the market valuation of corporate cash flows offers the first reconciliation of conventional cost-of-capital valuation models from the corporate finance literature with state-pricing (or 'risk-neutral' pricing) models subsequently developed on the basis of multi-period no-arbitrage theories. Using an entertaining style, Kruschwitz and Löffler develop a precise and theoretically consistent definition of 'cost of capital', and provoke readers to drop vague or contradictory alternatives." --Darrell Duffie, Stanford University "Handling firm and personal income taxes properly in valuation involves complex considerations. This book offers a new, precise, clear and concise theoretical path that is pleasant to read. Now it is the practitioners task to translate this approach into real-world applications!" --Wolfgang Wagner, PricewaterhouseCoopers "It is an interesting book, which has some new results and it fills a gap in the literature between the usual undergraduate material and the very abstract PhD material in such books as that of Duffie (Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory). The style is very engaging, which is rare in books pitched at this level." --Martin Lally, University of Wellington

Seminar paper from the year 2005 in the subject Business economics - General, grade: 1.3, California State University, Fullerton, course: Theory of Corporate Finance, 21 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: This paper will deal with the procedure and implementations of firm/stock valuation using FCF approach and WACC - the weighted average cost of capital. On the road, the different approaches and methods of firm valuation, the various inputs of WACC and the final procedure finding the fair market value of the firm using Pro Forma Financial Statements, will be discussed. In this valuation method the two main parts contributing to the final value of the firm are Free Cash Flows (FCF) and the weighted average cost of capital. It is then used the time value of money concept along with some educated guesses about the long term sales growth rate and the long term WACC to apply common capital budgeting rules of project evaluation. Besides that, the paper will shortly discuss the influence of capital structure on a firm's value. It will come out that there is a difference in value whether the company is leveraged and uses debt or not. When it comes to the different inputs of the WACC, a main focus will be on the required rate of return for shareholders. Finding the 'right' beta and an appropriate estimate for the market risk premium are the main issues of that part. Therefore, the CAPM model and its specific determinants will be analyzed. Thereafter, the nature of pro forma financial statements and the different parts of them will be defined. It will be described how the 'free cash flows' are determined and how that leads to the actual valuation procedure. Finally, the paper will focus on the terminal value as probably the most important and affecting part of the calculated firm value and its nature as a perpetuity in an investing perspective. The conclusion will finally deal with a critical assessment of the firm valuation process with the FCF method.