Strategic Adjustment And The Rise Of China

Strategic Adjustment and the Rise of China demonstrates how structural and domestic variables influence how East Asian states adjust their strategy in light of the rise of China, including how China manages its own emerging role as a regional great power. The contributors note that the shifting regional balance of power has fueled escalating tensions in East Asia and suggest that adjustment challenges are exacerbated by the politics of policymaking. International and domestic pressures on policymaking are reflected in maritime territorial disputes and in the broader range of regional security issues created by the rise of China.Adjusting to power shifts and managing a new regional order in the face of inevitable domestic pressure, including nationalism, is a challenging process. Both the United States and China have had to adjust to China's expanded capabilities. China has sought an expanded influence in maritime East Asia; the United States has responded by consolidating its alliances and expanding its naval presence in East Asia. The region's smaller countries have also adjusted to the rise of China. They have sought greater cooperation with China, even as they try to sustain cooperation with the United States. As China continues to rise and challenge the regional security order, the contributors consider whether the region is destined to experience increased conflict and confrontation.ContributorsIan Bowers, Norwegian Defence University College and Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies Daniel W. Drezner, Tufts University, Brookings Institution, and Washington Post Taylor M. Fravel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning, Norwegian Defence University College and Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies Chung-in Moon, Yonsei University and Chairman, Presidential Committee on Northeast Asia Cooperation Initiative, Republic of Korea James Reilly, University of Sydney Robert S. Ross, Boston College and Harvard University Randall L. Schweller, The Ohio State University ystein Tunsjø, Norwegian Defence University College and the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies Wang Dong, Peking University

As the rest of the world worries about what a future might look like under Chinese supremacy, Edward Luttwak worries about China’s own future prospects. Applying the logic of strategy for which he is well known, Luttwak argues that the most populous nation on Earth—and its second largest economy—may be headed for a fall. For any country whose rising strength cannot go unnoticed, the universal logic of strategy allows only military or economic growth. But China is pursuing both goals simultaneously. Its military buildup and assertive foreign policy have already stirred up resistance among its neighbors, just three of whom—India, Japan, and Vietnam—together exceed China in population and wealth. Unless China’s leaders check their own ambitions, a host of countries, which are already forming tacit military coalitions, will start to impose economic restrictions as well. Chinese leaders will find it difficult to choose between pursuing economic prosperity and increasing China’s military strength. Such a change would be hard to explain to public opinion. Moreover, Chinese leaders would have to end their reliance on ancient strategic texts such as Sun Tzu’s Art of War. While these guides might have helped in diplomatic and military conflicts within China itself, their tactics—such as deliberately provoking crises to force negotiations—turned China’s neighbors into foes. To avoid arousing the world’s enmity further, Luttwak advises, Chinese leaders would be wise to pursue a more sustainable course of economic growth combined with increasing military and diplomatic restraint.

This book describes and explains the grand strategy China's leaders have adopted to pursue their country's interests in the international system of the 21st century

China’s emergence in the 21st century to the status of great power has significant implications for its relationship with the United States, the sole superpower in the post-Cold War World. Now that China is rising as an economic, political, and military power and has expanded its diplomatic activism beyond Asia into Europe, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East, its rise has profoundly transformed its relationship with the US and compelled leaders in both countries to redefine their positions toward each other. This book, written by leading scholars and policy analysts from both the US and China, explores the transformation and multifaceted nature of US-China relations, including how the political elite in both countries have defined their strategic objectives in response to China’s rise and managed their relations accordingly. It provides an up-to-date analysis on the policy adjustments of the last decade, and covers all the important issue areas such as security, nuclear deterrence, military modernization, energy, trade and economic interaction, and Asia-Pacific power reconfiguration. It does not seek to confirm either an alarmist or optimistic position but presents different views and assessments by foreign policy specialists with the hope that leaders in Washington and Beijing may make positive adjustments in their policies to avoid confrontation and war. It will also be an invaluable resource for students and scholars of US and Chinese politics, international relations and comparative politics.

China's enormous size, vast population, abundant natural resources, robust economy, and modern military demonstrate that the nation has emerged as a great world power. Inside China's Grand Strategy: The Perspective from the People's Republic analyzes China's economic, social, political, and military development, assessing the extent of China's dominance. Highly regarded Chinese scholar Ye Zicheng offers a rare insider's perspective on the country's geopolitical ambitions and strategic thinking. Inside China's Grand Strategy argues that China's primary obstacle to achieving enduring status as a world power is its domestic state of affairs. Ye examines the impact of unemployment, corruption, massive economic gaps between classes, population size, strains on natural and labor resources, environmental degradation, and other issues that impede China's continuing development. Some analysts claim that repressive domestic policies threaten the country's goal of modernization, but Ye points to China's recent inclusion in the G-20 as an indicator of future success. Ye contends that China's progress hinges on many factors: peaceful development, extensive governmental reform with a system of checks and balances, social and economic development on the mainland, and strategies for reunification, especially with Taiwan. Ye asserts that military pressure may be required to integrate Taiwanese separatist forces but advises that development should remain China's primary goal, because it will eventually lead to unification. Although Ye argues that democracy is the only way to repair the corrupt systems that perpetuate economic inequality, he specifies that a Western-style democracy is not what China needs. As the United States' destiny is increasingly bound to China's growth and American policies are being evaluated in the realm of geopolitics, it is important to gauge and understand China's ambitions. An authoritative and up-to-date analysis from within Chinese society, Inside China's Grand Strategy is an indispensible resources for Western scholars, offering a new window on Chinese development.

Analysts debate the international implications of a newly powerful China.China's relentless economic growth in the 1980s and 1990s heralded its emergence as a great power in world politics. As its economy expanded, China seemed poised to become the second-largest economy in the world. At the same time, it modernized its military and adopted a more assertive diplomatic posture. Many observers have begun to debate the international implications of China's rise. Some analysts argue that China will inevitably pose a threat to peace and security in East Asia. A few even predict a new cold war between Beijing and Washington. Others claim that a powerful China can remain benign. None believes that China can be ignored. The essays in this volume assess China's emerging capabilities and intentions, debate the impact that China will have on security in the Asia-Pacific region, and propose polices for the United States to adopt in its relations with China.

For more than a century, no US adversary or coalition of adversaries - not Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, or the Soviet Union - has ever reached sixty percent of US GDP. China is the sole exception, and it is fast emerging into a global superpower that could rival, if not eclipse, the United States. What does China want, does it have a grand strategy to achieve it, and what should the United States do about it? In The Long Game, Rush Doshi draws from a rich base of Chinese primary sources, including decades worth of party documents, leaked materials, memoirs by party leaders, and a careful analysis of China's conduct to provide a history of China's grand strategy since the end of the Cold War. Taking readers behind the Party's closed doors, he uncovers Beijing's long, methodical game to displace America from its hegemonic position in both the East Asia regional and global orders through three sequential "strategies of displacement." Beginning in the 1980s, China focused for two decades on "hiding capabilities and biding time." After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, it became more assertive regionally, following a policy of "actively accomplishing something." Finally, in the aftermath populist elections of 2016, China shifted to an even more aggressive strategy for undermining US hegemony, adopting the phrase "great changes unseen in century." After charting how China's long game has evolved, Doshi offers a comprehensive yet asymmetric plan for an effective US response. Ironically, his proposed approach takes a page from Beijing's own strategic playbook to undermine China's ambitions and strengthen American order without competing dollar-for-dollar, ship-for-ship, or loan-for-loan.

The rise of China will undoubtedly be one of the great spectacles of the twenty-first century. More than a dramatic symbol of the redistribution of global wealth, the event has marked the end of the unipolar international system and the arrival of a new era in world politics. How the security, stability and legitimacy built upon foundations that were suddenly shifting, adapting to this new reality is the subject of Will China's Rise be Peaceful? Bringing together the work of seasoned experts and younger scholars, this volume offers an inclusive examination of the effects of historical patterns-whether interrupted or intact-by the rise of China. The contributors show how strategies among the major powers are guided by existing international rules and expectations as well as by the realities created by an increasingly powerful China. While China has sought to signal its non-revisionist intent its extraordinary economic growth and active diplomacy has in a short time span transformed global and East Asian politics. This has caused constant readjustments as the other key actors have responded to the changing incentives provided by Chinese policies. Will China's Rise be Peaceful? explores these continuities and discontinuities in five areas: theory, history, domestic politics, regional politics, and great power politics. Equally grounded in theory and extensive empirical research, this timely volume offers a remarkably lucid description and interpretation of our changing international relations. In both its approach and its conclusions, it will serve as a model for the study of China in a new era.