Taming Uncertainty

An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.

A popular cliché in contemporary public discourse holds that we live in a time of increasing uncertainty; that the next catastrophe is perpetually imminent and yet increasingly beyond our capacity to foresee. The future, in short, is becoming much more difficult to control. One consequence of this increasingly widespread understanding of the future is that societies have turned to anticipatory governance strategies based on such concepts as risk management, the precautionary principle, and pre-emption to manage human affairs. This book takes an in-depth look at this trend by using the example of the ‘pre-emptive security’ strategies deployed in the post-9/11 War on Terror to develop a critical understanding of how the proliferation of such anticipatory governance strategies affects the way political power is organized and exercised. The book also makes a wider case for taking issues of time and the future more seriously in the study of contemporary global politics in particular and the social world more generally.

A concise and practical introduction to the foundations and engineering principles of self-adaptation Though it has recently gained significant momentum, the topic of self-adaptation remains largely under-addressed in academic and technical literature. This book changes that. Using a systematic and holistic approach, An Introduction to Self-adaptive Systems: A Contemporary Software Engineering Perspective provides readers with an accessible set of basic principles, engineering foundations, and applications of self-adaptation in software-intensive systems. It places self-adaptation in the context of techniques like uncertainty management, feedback control, online reasoning, and machine learning while acknowledging the growing consensus in the software engineering community that self-adaptation will be a crucial enabling feature in tackling the challenges of new, emerging, and future systems. The author combines cutting-edge technical research with basic principles and real-world insights to create a practical and strategically effective guide to self-adaptation. He includes features such as: An analysis of the foundational engineering principles and applications of self-adaptation in different domains, including the Internet-of-Things, cloud computing, and cyber-physical systems End-of-chapter exercises at four different levels of complexity and difficulty An accompanying author-hosted website with slides, selected exercises and solutions, models, and code Perfect for researchers, students, teachers, industry leaders, and practitioners in fields that directly or peripherally involve software engineering, as well as those in academia involved in a class on self-adaptivity, this book belongs on the shelves of anyone with an interest in the future of software and its engineering.

Our capacity to reshape the future has never been more powerful. Yet our ability to foresee the consequences of what we do has not kept pace. Is the idea that we have responsibilities to future generations therefore meaningful? This book argues that it is, with the aid of a unique reading of the care ethics tradition.

Knight (1921) defines uncertainty as an informational market failure that, while being detrimental to most existing businesses, presents possible profitable opportunities for others. This book builds upon that classic work by providing an analysis of the alternative approaches to strategic decision-making under such uncertainty. It covers what uncertainty is, why it is important, and what connections it has to business and related fields, culminating in a new and comprehensive typology and a valuable guide for how to appropriately address various types of uncertainties, even under AI. It clarifies the current terminological and categorical confusion about ‘unknowns’ while complementing the mathematical, probability-based approaches that treat uncertainty as ‘knowable’ (i.e., as risk). It corrects the mistaken approaches that treat ‘unknowables’ as ‘shapeable’ or ‘discoverable’. This book widens the perspective for viewing uncertainty, in terms of its impacts across humanity, by offering a shrewder understanding of what roles uncertainties play in human activity. It will appeal to academics across business, economics, philosophy, and other disciplines looking for approaches to apply, test, and hone for dealing with decision-making under uncertainty.

Tato kniha se zabývá sporem o plány na výstavbu hlubinného úložiště pro vysoce radioaktivní odpad v České republice. Od 90. let státní orgány vytipovaly několik míst, která by pro výstavbu úložiště mohla být vhodná. Záměr se však setkal s trvalým odporem dotčených obcí i neziskových organizací. Spor trvá bezmála dvě desetiletí, a dá se říci, že zatím nedošlo k výraznému posunu. Kniha podrobně rozebírá dotyčný spor na základě analýzy rozhovorů s klíčovými aktéry, pozorování z jednání a debat, vládních dokumentů či technických zpráv. S pomocí literatury vědních studií kniha analyzuje spor z hlediska toho, jak se v něm zachází s nejistotou a rizikem, a argumentuje pro posun z perspektivy založené na riziku směrem k perspektivě založené na nejistotě, jež by mohla pomoci spor odblokovat.

"This book addresses directly the nature of policy work. It blends academic and experiential knowledge of the policy process in describing, analysing and evaluating what modern policy workers do in particular situations, and why, how it contributes to the policy process, what impact it has, and what can we learn from this about the skills and knowledge required for policy work in complex modern societies."--Publisher's website.

This book presents the thoroughly refereed and revised post-workshop proceedings of the 17th Monterey Workshop, held in Oxford, UK, in March 2012. The workshop explored the challenges associated with the Development, Operation and Management of Large-Scale complex IT Systems. The 21 revised full papers presented were significantly extended and improved by the insights gained from the productive and lively discussions at the workshop, and the feedback from the post-workshop peer reviews.