The China Triangle

Since 1980, China has evolved from a poor and mostly rural society into one of the largest economies in the world. As it grew into a major industrial power, it demanded enormous amounts of steel for new factories and cities, copper for electronic wires, petroleum for cars and manufacturing plants, and soybeans and cattle to feed its workers. By the 1990s, many Latin American countries were riding China's coattails and beginning to prosper from the new demand. Ever since China entered the World Trade Organization at the turn of the century, Latin America supplied China with more and more of the primary commodities it needs and more. That in turn has produced one the most impressive periods of economic growth on the continent in fifty years. And it was more evenly spread too - a region infamous for its extreme inequality saw it decline by a couple of percentage points over the course of the era. In The China Triangle, Kevin P. Gallagher traces the development of the China-Latin America trade over time and covers how it has affected the centuries-old (and highly unequal) US-Latin American relationship. He argues that despite these opportunities Latin American nations have little to show for riding the coattails of the 'China Boom' and now face significant challenges in the next decades as China's economy slows down and shifts more toward consumption and services. While the Latin American region saw significant economic growth due to China's rise over the past decades, Latin Americans saved very little of the windfall profits it earned even as the region saw a significant hollowing of its industrial base. What is more, commodity-led growth during the China boom reignited social and environmental conflicts across the region. Scholars and reporters have covered the Chinese expansion into East Asia, Southeast Asia, Australasia, Africa, the US, and Europe. Yet China's penetration Latin America is as little understood as it is significant-especially for America given its longstanding ties to the region. Gallagher provides a clear overview of China's growing economic ties with Latin America and points to ways that Latin American nations, China, and even the United States can act in order to make the next decades of China-Latin America economic activity more prosperous for all involved.

Taking a long view of the three-party relationship, and its future prospects In this Asian century, scholars, officials and journalists are increasingly focused on the fate of the rivalry between China and India. They see the U.S. relationships with the two Asian giants as now intertwined, after having followed separate paths during the Cold War. In Fateful Triangle, Tanvi Madan argues that China’s influence on the U.S.-India relationship is neither a recent nor a momentary phenomenon. Drawing on documents from India and the United States, she shows that American and Indian perceptions of and policy toward China significantly shaped U.S.-India relations in three crucial decades, from 1949 to 1979. Fateful Triangle updates our understanding of the diplomatic history of U.S.-India relations, highlighting China’s central role in it, reassesses the origins and practice of Indian foreign policy and nonalignment, and provides historical context for the interactions between the three countries. Madan’s assessment of this formative period in the triangular relationship is of more than historic interest. A key question today is whether the United States and India can, or should develop ever-closer ties as a way of countering China’s desire to be the dominant power in the broader Asian region. Fateful Triangle argues that history shows such a partnership is neither inevitable nor impossible. A desire to offset China brought the two countries closer together in the past, and could do so again. A look to history, however, also shows that shared perceptions of an external threat from China are necessary, but insufficient, to bring India and the United States into a close and sustained alignment: that requires agreement on the nature and urgency of the threat, as well as how to approach the threat strategically, economically, and ideologically. With its long view, Fateful Triangle offers insights for both present and future policymakers as they tackle a fateful, and evolving, triangle that has regional and global implications.

A collaborative effort by scholars from the United States, China, and Japan, this volume focuses on the period 1972–1989, during which all three countries, brought together by a shared geopolitical strategy, established mutual relations with one another despite differences in their histories, values, and perceptions of their own national interest. Although each initially conceived of its political and security relations with the others in bilateral terms, the three in fact came to form an economic and political triangle during the 1970s and 1980s. But this triangle is a strange one whose dynamics are constantly changing. Its corners (the three countries) and its sides (the three bilateral relationships) are unequal, while its overall nature (the capacity of the three to work together) has varied considerably as the economic and strategic positions of the three have changed and post–Cold War tensions and uncertainties have emerged.

The United States has been deeply involved in the Middle East for more than a half century and seized with China's role in the world for a similar period of time. Up to now, the two issues have remained distinct. Increasingly, China's growing thirst for energy has brought it to the Middle East, where governments are curious how the growing superpower might fit into their own strategic understanding of the world. China's increasing role in the Middle East comes at a time when the United States is itself deeply enmeshed in the region, setting up the possibility of competition or even conflict between the two great powers. This volume explores the complex interrelationships among China, the United States, and the Middle East-what the authors call the "vital triangle." There is surely much to be gained from continuing the conventional two-dimensional analysis-China and the United States, the United States and the Middle East, and China and the Middle East. Such scholarship has a long history and no doubt a long future. But it is the three-dimensional equation-which seeks to understand the effects of the China-Middle East relationship on the United States, the U.S.-Middle East relationship on China, and the Sino-American relationship on the Middle East-that draws the authors' attention here. This approach captures the true dynamics of change in world affairs and the spiraling up and down of national interests. Central to this analysis is a belief that if any one of the three sides of this triangular relationship is unhappy, it has the power to make the other two unhappy as well. The stakes and the intimacy of the interrelationship highlight not only the importance of reaching accommodation, but also the potential payoff of agreement on common purpose.

While the strategic dynamics in the IOR are complex and involve many powers there is little doubt that the “strategic triangle” involving the US, China and India is one of the key traditional security issues facing the IOR. Given Sri Lanka’s geopolitically significant location in the IOR this strategic triangle is bound to have an impact on its national interests and security. The central questions raised by this volume are the following: What are the prospects of competition and cooperation within the strategic triangle? What structure or pattern will the triangular relations assume? How can stability be maintained in the triangular relationship in the interest of peace in the IOR? and What would be the impact of this strategic triangle on a small country such as Sri Lanka situated in a geopolitically significant location in the IOR? The dynamics of the US-China-India strategic triangle in the IOR will be complicated, containing elements of both competition and cooperation. The research contained in the substantive chapters of this volume present a multiplicity of views on the possible patterns that the strategic triangle can assume. Based on Harry Harding’s typology of the strategic triangle in international affairs, these include: one mediating the conflict between the other two; two-against-one; and all-working-together. The multiplicity of patterns that the strategic triangle could assume indicate that there is likely to be considerable fluctuation in its structure. What is important in maintaining stability is that the competition is not allowed to become unmanageable, and the fostering of cooperation based on common interests. The US-China-India strategic triangle poses Sri Lanka as a country situated in a geopolitically significant location in the IOR with both challenges and opportunities. The most fundamental challenge is posed by the tendency of each of these three major powers to subordinate Sri Lanka to their grand strategic objectives and interaction with each other. The fundamental opportunity presented to Sri Lanka by the strategic triangle is that of using its geopolitical importance to each of these three major powers by virtue of its location in the IOR to its own advantage in a way that best serves its national interests.

The Chinese triangle of mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan constitutes one of the most dynamic regions in the world economy. Since the late 1970s, these three societies have experienced increasing economic integration; however, studies aimed at analyzing and explaining this integration have often overlooked the very important role social institutions have played in the shaping of this process. To fill this gap, this book adopts a systematic institutional approach designed to examine the different patterns of institutions in the three countries and to discuss how such social institutions as the economy, gender, social networks, and the Chinese diaspora have exerted a profound impact on all three societies. The chapters, taken together, argue that different patterns of institutional configuration have led to divergent paths of development, and that this divergence will have significant implications on the prospects for Chinese national reunification in the twenty-first century. The Introductory chapter provides a historical discussion on the origins and the transformation of the Chinese triangle during the second half of the twentieth century. The remainder of the volume is broken into four topics considered crucial for understanding the transformation of the Chinese triangle: economic transformation, gender, social networks, and the Chinese diaspora. As globalization impacts the Chinese triangle, studies that consider the issues from the perspective of social institutions will be increasingly important to understanding the area as it develops in the world economy.