The Decline Effect

A crisis is coming for everyone who uses math and science. For decades now, the classical model of probability (the indifference principle and the Gaussian distribution) has been breaking down and revealing its limitations in fields from economics to epidemiology. Now a new approach has revealed the underlying non-classical principle behind all these 'anomalous' laws: — Pareto’s law of elite incomes — Zipf’s law of word frequencies — Lotka’s law of scientific publications — Kleiber’s law of metabolic rates — the Clausewitz-Dupuy law of combat friction — Moore’s law of computing costs — the Wright-Henderson cost law — Weibull’s law of electronics failures — the Flynn Effect in IQ scores — Benford’s law of digit frequencies — Farr’s law of epidemics — Hubbell’s neutral theory of biodiversity — Rogers’ law of innovation classes — Wilson’s law of island biogeography — Smeed’s law of traffic fatalities The general law behind all these particular laws (and countless others) is the "decline effect". As a system ages or grows in size, the rules of probability subtly change. Entropy increases, rare items become rarer, and average performance measures decline. The human meaning of a decline may be positive (decreasing costs, falling epidemic mortality) or negative (lower customer loyalty, decreasing efficiency), but the mathematical pattern is always the same. The implications are enormous, as these examples show: All epidemic diseases decline in infectiousness and in lethality. HIV-AIDS went from a highly infectious, 95-percent fatal disease, to a survivable condition with a latency of decades. COVID-19 went from a death rate of 7 percent in early 2020, to under 2 percent in 2022. Hereditary dynasties around the world declined smoothly in lifespan, from hundreds of years to tens of years. When democracies replaced monarchies, the decline (in spans of party control) continued.

A crisis is coming for everyone who uses math and science. For decades now, the classical model of probability (the indifference principle and the Gaussian distribution) has been breaking down and revealing its limitations in fields from economics to epidemiology. Now a new approach has revealed the underlying non-classical principle behind all these 'anomalous' laws: — Pareto’s law of elite incomes — Zipf’s law of word frequencies — Lotka’s law of scientific publications — Kleiber’s law of metabolic rates — the Clausewitz-Dupuy law of combat friction — Moore’s law of computing costs — the Wright-Henderson cost law — Weibull’s law of electronics failures — the Flynn Effect in IQ scores — Benford’s law of digit frequencies — Farr’s law of epidemics — Hubbell’s neutral theory of biodiversity — Rogers’ law of innovation classes — Wilson’s law of island biogeography — Smeed’s law of traffic fatalities The general law behind all these particular laws (and countless others) is the "decline effect". As a system ages or grows in size, the rules of probability subtly change. Entropy increases, rare items become rarer, and average performance measures decline. The human meaning of a decline may be positive (decreasing costs, falling epidemic mortality) or negative (lower customer loyalty, decreasing efficiency), but the mathematical pattern is always the same. The implications are enormous, as these examples show: All epidemic diseases decline in infectiousness and in lethality. HIV-AIDS went from a highly infectious, 95-percent fatal disease, to a survivable condition with a latency of decades. COVID-19 went from a death rate of 7 percent in early 2020, to under 2 percent in 2022. Hereditary dynasties around the world declined smoothly in lifespan, from hundreds of years to tens of years. When democracies replaced monarchies, the decline (in spans of party control) continued.

Psychological Science Under Scrutiny explores a range of contemporary challenges to the assumptions and methodologies of psychology, in order to encourage debate and ground the discipline in solid science. Discusses the pointed challenges posed by critics to the field of psychological research, which have given pause to psychological researchers across a broad spectrum of sub-fields Argues that those conducting psychological research need to fundamentally change the way they think about data and results, in order to ensure that psychology has a firm basis in empirical science Places the recent challenges discussed into a broad historical and conceptual perspective, and considers their implications for the future of psychological methodology and research Challenges discussed include confirmation bias, the effects of grant pressure, false-positive findings, overestimating the efficacy of medications, and high correlations in functional brain imaging Chapters are authored by internationally recognized experts in their fields, and are written with a minimum of specialized terminology to ensure accessibility to students and lay readers

First published in 1986, The Decline of Arab Oil Revenues explores the fall in the economic value of Arab oil reserves in the 1980s. Some of the threats to Arab countries include depletion of oil resources, rise of alternative sources of energy, international policies designed to control oil prices and growing conflicts of interest between producing and consuming countries. The editors suggest that any decline in oil revenues would negatively affect the economic, political, social and psychological structure of Arab societies since they are yet to explore non-oil sources of wealth. Consequently, the editors stress on the importance of researching the desert, which covers 94% of Arab lands, as a potential source of wealth. Given the current global shift towards sustainable forms of energy, this book is a timely reminder of the economic and political implications of such a shift on Arab countries for students of political science, international relations, geography, and economics.

Between 1952 and 1962, when this book was originally published, the number of people visiting British cinemas had fallen by nearly two thirds and was little more than half the pre-war total. Nearly 1500 of the 4500 cinemas functioning in 1955 had closed five years later, and the author here predicts a further substantial fall. The causes of this drastic decline are traced to the competition of television but also to the dramatic halving of the number of new American films and to the difficulty of transferring a cinema’s ‘congregation’ when it is closed. This decline has few parallels in recent times and in conjunction with a disproportionate and unexpected increase in the price of seats presents a fascinating study for the economist, which the author fully exploits. But the film industry is of general interest so that the author’s conclusions and his social recommendations will appeal to the general reader as well as those in the industry.

"Continued genetic development of pigs and poultry has been the foundation of profitable production within a competitive market. However, the challenges of these production increases have undoubtedly taken their toll on reproductive function in all breeding livestock, with the incidence of infertility increasing at an alarming rate. For example, it has recently been estimated that over 40% of sows are culled due to fertility problems, compared to just 12% with feet and leg issues. This edited collection of papers is taken from a series of seminars, devoted to bringing together some of the world’s leading authorities in the field of pig and poultry reproduction. The fundamental aim being to re-examine the current trends in productivity in the pig and poultry industries, and to identify nutritional means to improve fertility. It considers the effects of essential nutrients in optimising productivity, and discusses innovative applications of nutrition that will help to enhance fertility. The success of such innovations within entrepreneurial integrated systems is also covered, together with the importance of producing a quality chick and piglet at birth/hatching. Finally, the role of management and the need for least cost production is discussed. Nutritional Approaches to Arresting the decline in Fertility of Pigs and Poultry is aimed at nutritionists and animal producers as well as students and researchers studying animal and applied biological sciences."

The Advanced Intelligence of Dolphin Man is a theoretical work to compare and contrast a plain spoken or wise English versus the use of concepturalization. Inhumanity may provide such a work; although may not ulimately prosecute a source. Dolphin Man provides theory for the emergence of sequential cognitive process in such opposites. First basis of resource is described to be a vision of a future. Calculation and memory performance are assessed from an analytical perspective. The more limited frame posts to Dolphin Man may to baste the ID to such a thing. This book endeavors to discuss enhanced ideation to be in the offing. The simplest test could be orientation of a time, person or place. This may be attacked; so to get more of it. A recommendation is made to look of any basis to a cognition, and to find a giving up of mental process in some sector. The potential restriction to creativity is described, and the evolution into archetypes of principle documented in its' steps. The mirculous amounts of energy to be found received discussion. The Agelic mode of a co-existence is analyzed somewhat. The Advanced Intelligence of Dolphin Man provide the theory of an adptation. A unifying or escape to Planet Earth are suggested to be motive. It is an important contribution to get spark of creativity from only the perception of light.