The Euro Trap

This book offers a critical assessment of the history of the euro, its crisis, and the rescue measures taken by the European Central Bank and the community of states. The euro induced huge capital flows from the northern to the southern countries of the Eurozone that triggered an inflationary credit bubble in the latter, deprived them of their competitiveness, and made them vulnerable to the financial crisis that spilled over from the US in 2007 and 2008. As private capital shied away from the southern countries, the ECB helped out by providing credit from the local money-printing presses. The ECB became heavily exposed to investment risks in the process, and subsequently had to be bailed out by intergovernmental rescue operations that provided replacement credit for the ECB credit, which itself had replaced the dwindling private credit. The interventions stretched the legal structures stipulated by the Maastricht Treaty which, in the absence of a European federal state, had granted the ECB a very limited mandate. These interventions created a path dependency that effectively made parliaments vicarious agents of the ECB's Governing Council. This book describes what the author considers to be a dangerous political process that undermines both the market economy and democracy, without solving southern Europe's competitiveness problem. It argues that the Eurozone has to rethink its rules of conduct by limiting the role of the ECB, exiting the regime of soft budget constraints and writing off public and bank debt to help the crisis countries breathe again. At the same time, the Eurosystem should become more flexible by offering its members the option of exiting and re-entering the euro - something between the dollar and the Bretton Woods system - until it eventually turns into a federation with a strong political power centre and a uniform currency like the dollar.

This book offers a critical assessment of the history of the euro, its crisis, and the rescue measures taken by the European Central Bank and the community of states. The euro induced huge capital flows from the northern to the southern countries of the Eurozone that triggered an inflationary credit bubble in the latter, deprived them of their competitiveness, and made them vulnerable to the financial crisis that spilled over from the US in 2007 and 2008. As private capital shied away from the southern countries, the ECB helped out by providing credit from the local money-printing presses. The ECB became heavily exposed to investment risks in the process, and subsequently had to be bailed out by intergovernmental rescue operations that provided replacement credit for the ECB credit, which itself had replaced the dwindling private credit. The interventions stretched the legal structures stipulated by the Maastricht Treaty which, in the absence of a European federal state, had granted the ECB a very limited mandate. These interventions created a path dependency that effectively made parliaments vicarious agents of the ECB's Governing Council. This book describes what the author considers to be a dangerous political process that undermines both the market economy and democracy, without solving southern Europe's competitiveness problem. It argues that the Eurozone has to rethink its rules of conduct by limiting the role of the ECB, exiting the regime of soft budget constraints and writing off public and bank debt to help the crisis countries breathe again. At the same time, the Eurosystem should become more flexible by offering its members the option of exiting and re-entering the euro - something between the dollar and the Bretton Woods system - until it eventually turns into a federation with a strong political power centre and a uniform currency like the dollar.

This book presents a new narrative on the eurozone crisis. It argues that the common currency has the potential to kill the European Union, and the conventional wisdom that the eurozone can be fixed by a common budget and further political integration is incorrect. The authors address key questions such as why the European Union and the single market have been successful, why the common currency poses a threat to European integration, and whether it is possible to either fix the eurozone or dissolve it while keeping the EU and the single market. Contrary to the view that it would be best if the Southern European countries left the eurozone first, the book makes the case that the optimal solution would be to start the process with the most competitive countries exiting first. The authors argue that a return to national currencies would be beneficial not only to the crisis-ridden southern countries, but also to France and Germany, which were the main promoters of the single currency. An organised unwinding of the euro area would be beneficial both for the European economy and for Europe’s main trading partners. The authors contend that to defend the euro at all costs weakens the European economy and threatens the cohesion of the European Union. If pro-European and pro-market EU leaders do not dismantle the eurozone, it will most likely be done by their anti-European and anti-market successors. If that happens, the European Union and the common market will be destroyed. This book will be a useful and engaging contribution to the existing literature in the fields of macro, monetary and international finance and economics.

This book explains why the European Union (EU) Member States – in response to the euro crisis – agreed to establish banking union, despite previous objections, and why they chose its hybrid institutional design. Analysing its establishment from 2012 to 2020, the book offers a comprehensive view of the preferences of the Member States and EU institutions, as well as of the negotiation dynamics and latest developments in the three pillars of banking union, namely, the Single Supervisory Mechanism, the Single Resolution Mechanism and the common backstop, and the European deposit insurance scheme. Furthermore, empirically, the book looks beyond the usual focus of the northern and southern coalition of states to underline the influence of powerful smaller Member States in the intergovernmental bargaining process. Adopting a range of theoretical perspectives, it questions the solidity of the northern versus southern camps and reveals distinctive and particular positioning from individual countries during the process. This book will be of key interest to scholars and students of European financial market regulation, European economic governance, EU institutions, European integration theory and EU politics more broadly.

In order to save the European Union and the common market, the book proposes an orderly dismantling of the eurozone, and the creation of a new European currency coordination system. The authors make the case that the optimal solution would be to start the process with the most competitive countries exiting the Eurozone first.

Why the dollar is—and will remain—the dominant global currency The U.S. dollar's dominance seems under threat. The near collapse of the U.S. financial system in 2008–2009, political paralysis that has blocked effective policymaking, and emerging competitors such as the Chinese renminbi have heightened speculation about the dollar’s looming displacement as the main reserve currency. Yet, as The Dollar Trap powerfully argues, the financial crisis, a dysfunctional international monetary system, and U.S. policies have paradoxically strengthened the dollar’s importance. Eswar Prasad examines how the dollar came to have a central role in the world economy and demonstrates that it will remain the cornerstone of global finance for the foreseeable future. Marshaling a range of arguments and data, and drawing on the latest research, Prasad shows why it will be difficult to dislodge the dollar-centric system. With vast amounts of foreign financial capital locked up in dollar assets, including U.S. government securities, other countries now have a strong incentive to prevent a dollar crash. Prasad takes the reader through key contemporary issues in international finance—including the growing economic influence of emerging markets, the currency wars, the complexities of the China-U.S. relationship, and the role of institutions like the International Monetary Fund—and offers new ideas for fixing the flawed monetary system. Readers are also given a rare look into some of the intrigue and backdoor scheming in the corridors of international finance. The Dollar Trap offers a panoramic analysis of the fragile state of global finance and makes a compelling case that, despite all its flaws, the dollar will remain the ultimate safe-haven currency.

The euro's life, while only slightly more than a decade long, has been riddled by a series of challenges and crises. The disparity between the prosperous Northern countries of Germany and France and the plummeting Southern countries, including Italy and Greece, has exacerbated problems withinthe political and economic union of the Eurozone. The North, especially Germany, has debated where to draw the line between doing whatever is necessary to save the common currency and what they have viewed as a charity bailout of countries who flouted the rules for a decade and suffered predictableconsequences. Meanwhile, Southern countries such as Italy, Spain, and Greece have grown increasingly bitter at the attitudes of their partners to the North. Amidst loud and frequent debates, solutions including routes for increased integration and punitive policies and reforms have been enacted anddiscarded to a limited degree of success. The struggles facing this monetary union continue to unfold even today.The Euro Crisis and Its Aftermath was written to inform readers about the history of this enduring European crisis and the alternative proposals for ending it. In four parts, Jean Pisani-Ferry explains the origins of the European currency, the build-up of imbalances and oversights that led to thecrisis, the choices European policymakers have both addressed and ignored since 2010, the evolution of the policy agenda, and possible options for the future. The book is as much of an informative and analytical history as it is a prescriptive solution for a more prosperous future world economy.Rather than putting forth and supporting a thesis, Pisani-Ferry helps readers understand the past and present of the euro crisis and form their own opinions about potential solutions. It has grown out of his book Le Reveil des Demons published in France in 2011. The content has been updatedextensively to cover the events of the past few years and augmented to better explain the Eurozone to a global audience. This book is not intended to reach only economists, as time has long passed since European monetary unification was a debate limited to academics. This book is also for the policymakers searching for solutions, citizens of Europe enduring the consequences, and the international community that has felt the effects of an unstable Eurozone.