The Expected Goals Philosophy

The Expected Goals method is football's best-kept secret. The metric gives unparalleled insight into which teams and players are performing at the highest level. Professional gamblers have used Expected Goals to make millions through football betting. Club scouts have used Expected Goals to identify hidden gems in the transfer market. And the media have recently started using Expected Goals to offer more profound insight in their broadcasts. Despite this, most ordinary fans still don't understand what the Expected Goals method is - or appreciate the significant impact that it is set to have on the sport in coming years. Expected Goals (otherwise known as xG) was originally conjured up by a small corner of the online football analytics community. It didn't take long for professional gamblers to begin using xG to predict match outcomes. These bettors utilised the Expected Goals method to turn over hundreds of millions of pounds from the bookmakers. Before long, football clubs had caught on to the ground-breaking insight given by xG. Brentford FC were leaders in this field, managing to assemble a Play-Off-reaching squad on a shoe-string budget. In the last five years, the small West London side have turned over more than £100m in transfer revenue from their use of the Expected Goals method in player recruitment. More recently, the Expected Goals method has been adopted by the media as a form of insight. Fans are finally catching on to the pioneering means of football analysis. Soon enough, anyone who doesn't understand the Expected Goals philosophy will be left behind. "This book will make you watch football differently" - Tobias Pedersen "Possibly the most ground-breaking football book ever written" - Football Impact "A brilliant account of the history and future of Expected Goals" - StatShot

Well written and thoughtful. Takes us on a tour of some of Europe's most innovative football thinkers - Financial Times The future of football is now. Football's data revolution has only just begun. The arrival of advanced metrics and detailed analysis is already reshaping the modern game. We can now fully assess player performance, analyse the role of luck and measure what really leads to victory. There is no turning back. Now the race is on between football's wealthiest clubs and a group of outsiders, nerds and rule-breakers, who are turning the game on its head with their staggering innovations. Winning is no longer just about what happens out on the pitch, it's now a battle taking place in boardrooms and on screens across international borders with the world's brightest minds driving for an edge over their fiercest rivals. Christoph Biermann has moved in the midst of these disruptive upheavals, talking to scientists, coaches, managers, scouts and psychologists in the world's major clubs, traveling across Europe and the US and revealing the hidden - and often jaw-dropping - truths behind the beautiful game. 'A book full of exciting ideas and inside views on modern football. The most exciting book in an exciting time for football.' Thomas Hitzlsperger

Data Analytics in Football provides students, researchers, and coaches with a firm grounding in the principles of modern performance analysis. It offers an insight into the use of positional data, exploring how they can be collected, modeled, analyzed, and interpreted. Introducing cutting-edge methods, the book challenges long-held assumptions and encourages a new way of thinking about football analysis. The book seeks to define the role of positional data in football match analysis by exploring topics such as the following: What is positional data analysis, and how did it emerge from conventional match analysis? How can positional data be collected, and which technologies can be used? What key performance indicators based on positional data should be used? How can traditional match analysis be complemented by using positional data and advanced KPIs? How can these new methods evolve in the future? Based on data collected from active leagues and fully revised for the new second edition, the text now also examines data collection in relation to other sports, how a data-driven approach in decision-making is achieved by professional teams, the potential of the new methods of data collection, and how they could evolve in the future. Accessibly written, packed full of examples from elite football, and supplemented with expert interviews, Data Analytics in Football is a thought-provoking, rigorously evidence-based guide to the use of data analytics in football performance analysis. As such, it is a vital resource for any student, researcher, or coach interested in performance analysis and skill acquisition, or anyone interested in football more generally.

'A great read and a fascinating insight into performance.' Sir Clive Woodward We all want to discover our hidden talents and make an impact with them. But how? Rasmus Ankersen, an ex-footballer and performance specialist, quit his job and for six intense months lived with the world's best athletes in an attempt to answer this question. Why have the best middle distance runners grown up in the same Ethiopian village? Why are the leading female golfers from South Korea? How did one athletic club in Kingston, Jamaica, succeed in producing so many world-class sprinters? Ankersen presents his surprising conclusions in seven lessons on how anyone - or any business, organisation or team - can defy the many misconceptions of high performance and learn to build their own gold mine of real talent.

Ken Blanchard’s Leading at a Higher Level techniques are inspiring thousands of leaders to build high-performing organizations that make life better for everyone. Now, in Helping People Win at Work, Blanchard and WD-40 Company leader Garry Ridge reveal how WD-40 has used Blanchard’s techniques of Partnering for Performance with every employee--achieving levels of engagement and commitment that have fortified the bottom line. Ridge introduces WD-40 Company’s year-round performance review system, explaining its goals, features, and the cultural changes it requires. Next, he shares his leadership point of view: what he expects of people, what they can expect of him, and where his beliefs about leadership and motivation come from. Finally, Blanchard explains why WD-40 Company’s Partnering for Performance system works so well--and how to leverage its high-value techniques in your organization. In this book, you’ll learn how to: · Stop building failure into your mentoring of employees · Set goals using the SMART approach: specific, motivational, attainable, relevant and trackable · Help people move through all four stages of mastery · Create a culture that shares knowledge and encourages nonstop learning “I’m thrilled that the first book in our Leading at a Higher Level series is with Garry Ridge, president of WD-40 Company. For years I’ve been concerned about how people’s performance is evaluated. People are often forced into a normal distribution curve, or even worse, rank ordered. Not only does this not build trust, it also does not hold managers responsible for coaching people and helping them win. The manager’s responsibility is focused on sorting people out. When I was a college professor, I always gave my students the final exam at the beginning of the course and spent the rest of the semester helping them answer the questions so that they could get an A. Life is all about getting As, not some stupid normal distribution curve. Garry Ridge got this, and wow! What a difference it has made in WD-40 Company’s performance.” --Ken Blanchard “When I first heard Ken talk about giving his final exam at the beginning of the course and then teaching students the answers so they could get an A, it blew me away. Why don’t we do that in business? So that’s exactly what I did at WD-40 Company when we set up our ‘Don’t Mark My Paper, Help Me Get an A’ performance management system. Has it made a difference? You’d better believe it. Ever since we began the system, our company’s annual sales have more than tripled, from $100 million to more than $339 million. And we’ve accomplished this feat while making the company a great place to work.” --Garry Ridge

“There are at least two kinds of games,” states James Carse as he begins this extraordinary book. “One could be called finite; the other infinite.” Finite games are the familiar contests of everyday life; they are played in order to be won, which is when they end. But infinite games are more mysterious. Their object is not winning, but ensuring the continuation of play. The rules may change, the boundaries may change, even the participants may change—as long as the game is never allowed to come to an end. What are infinite games? How do they affect the ways we play our finite games? What are we doing when we play—finitely or infinitely? And how can infinite games affect the ways in which we live our lives? Carse explores these questions with stunning elegance, teasing out of his distinctions a universe of observation and insight, noting where and why and how we play, finitely and infinitely. He surveys our world—from the finite games of the playing field and playing board to the infinite games found in culture and religion—leaving all we think we know illuminated and transformed. Along the way, Carse finds new ways of understanding everything from how an actress portrays a role, to how we engage in sex, from the nature of evil, to the nature of science. Finite games, he shows, may offer wealth and status, power and glory. But infinite games offer something far more subtle and far grander. Carse has written a book rich in insight and aphorism. Already an international literary event, Finite and Infinite Games is certain to be argued about and celebrated for years to come. Reading it is the first step in learning to play the infinite game.

'Football looked at in a very different way' Pat Nevin, former Chelsea and Everton star and football media analyst Football – the most mathematical of sports. From shot statistics and league tables to the geometry of passing and managerial strategy, the modern game is filled with numbers, patterns and shapes. How do we make sense of them? The answer lies in the mathematical models applied in biology, physics and economics. Soccermatics brings football and mathematics together in a mind-bending synthesis, using numbers to help reveal the inner workings of the beautiful game. This new and expanded edition analyses the current big-name players and teams using mathematics, and meets the professionals working inside football who use numbers and statistics to boost performance. Welcome to the world of mathematical modelling, expressed brilliantly by David Sumpter through the prism of football. No matter who you follow – from your local non-league side to the big boys of the Premiership, La Liga, the Bundesliga, Serie A or the MLS – you'll be amazed at what mathematics has to teach us about the world's favourite sport.

Moneyball meets Freakonomics in this myth-busting guide to understanding—and winning—the most popular sport on the planet. Innovation is coming to soccer, and at the center of it all are the numbers—a way of thinking about the game that ignores the obvious in favor of how things actually are. In The Numbers Game, Chris Anderson, a former professional goalkeeper turned soccer statistics guru, teams up with behavioral analyst David Sally to uncover the numbers that really matter when it comes to predicting a winner. Investigating basic but profound questions—How valuable are corners? Which goal matters most? Is possession really nine-tenths of the law? How should a player’s value be judged?—they deliver an incisive, revolutionary new way of watching and understanding soccer.