The Impact Of Macroeconomic Policieson The Level Of Taxation Andon The Fiscal Balance In Developing Countries

In recent years the level of taxation of many developing countries has changed dramatically over relatively short periods. These changes are too large and too sudden to attribute fully to a deterioration in tax administration or to changes in the traditional determinants of tax levels. The paper argues that they should be attributed mostly to macroeconomic policies. The paper discusses the connection between tax levels and (a) the real value of the official exchange rate, (b) import substitution policies, (c) trade liberalization, (d) inflation, (e) public debt, (f) financial policies. The paper concludes that more attention should be paid to those relationships and that tax reform should aim at neutralizing some of these effects.

In recent years the level of taxation of many developing countries has changed dramatically over relatively short periods. These changes are too large and too sudden to attribute fully to a deterioration in tax administration or to changes in the traditional determinants of tax levels. The paper argues that they should be attributed mostly to macroeconomic policies. The paper discusses the connection between tax levels and (a) the real value of the official exchange rate, (b) import substitution policies, (c) trade liberalization, (d) inflation, (e) public debt, (f) financial policies. The paper concludes that more attention should be paid to those relationships and that tax reform should aim at neutralizing some of these effects.

Edited by Mario I. Blejer and Ke-young Chu, this book investigates linkages among components of the public sector, as well as between macro and micro aspects of fiscal policy, in developing countries. It presents 13 papers prepared by economists of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department.

Based on papers presented at the 44th Congress of the international Institute of Public Finance, this book, edited by Vito Tanzi, deals with public finance and macroeconomic policy in open, developing economies, with case studies of Chile, Mexico, Turkey, Korea, and the Arab oil exporting countries.

This paper studies fiscal policy effects in developing countries with external debt and sovereign default risks. State-dependent distributions of fiscal limits are simulated based on macroeconomic uncertainty and fiscal policy specifications. The analysis shows that expected future revenue plays an important role in the low fiscal limits of developing countries, relative to those of developed countries. External debt carries additional risks since large devaluation of the real exchange rate can suddenly raise default probabilities. Consistent with majority views, fiscal consolidations are counterproductive in the short and medium runs. When an economy approaches its fiscal limits, government spending can be less expansionary than in a low-debt state. As more revenue is required to service debt in a high-debt state, higher tax rates raise the economic cost of increasing consumption, reducing the fiscal multiplier.

This paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the relationship between taxation and public expenditure and economic growth. Particular attention is paid to the effect of taxation and government expenditure on the supply and productivity of labor and physical capital. Studies suggest that well-targeted government expenditures on health, education, and infrastructure should have a positive impact on growth. By contrast, the impact of taxation on the supplies of labor and capital, and on output growth, is more muted.

This lively and accessible book discusses the real world fiscal issues in developing countries within a realistic macroeconomic and social framework. It represents the best synthesis currently available of the link between public finance and macroeconomics in developing countries, with emphasis on positive rather than normative aspects. The first part of the book emphasizes the reasons why normatively prescribed policy objectives are often not achieved. The second part includes various chapters that show the close link that exists between developments in the public finances and in the macroeconomic situation of these countries. The impact on inflation and of the real exchange rate on tax revenue is highlighted. The third part discusses various aspects of taxation and the requirements for successful tax reform.

This paper examines the relationship between fiscal policy and the current account, drawing on a larger country sample than in previous studies and using panel regressions, vector autoregressions, and an analysis of large fiscal and external adjustments. On average, a strengthening in the fiscal balance by 1 percentage point of GDP is associated with a current account improvement of 0.2–0.3 percentage point of GDP. This association is as strong in emerging and low-income countries as it is in advanced economies; and significantly higher when output is above potential.