Trading On Expectations

Vor einer erfolgreichen Verkaufsplanung steht die sorgfältige Marktanalyse. Bei dieser nicht unkomplizierten Aufgabe hilft Ihnen die neue Methode, die in diesem Buch erläutert wird: Wichtige psychologische und technische Indikatoren des Marktverhaltens werden verknüpft. Eine unentbehrliche Fundgrube für alle Händler, die strategische Entscheidungen für ihr Geschäft treffen müssen.

Develop the skills to manage risk in the high-stakes world of financial speculation The Risk of Trading is a practical resource that takes an in-depth look at one of the most challenging factors of trading—risk management. The book puts a magnifying glass on the issue of risk, something that every trader needs to understand in order to be successful. Most traders look at risk in terms of a "stop-loss" that enables them to exit a losing trade quickly. In The Risk of Trading, Michael Toma explains that risk is ever-present in every aspect of trading and advocates that traders adopt a more comprehensive view of risk that encompasses the strategic trading plan, account size, drawdowns, maximum possible losses, psychological capital, and crisis management. Shows how to conduct a detailed statistical analysis of an individual's trading methodology through back-testing and real-time results so as to identify when the methodology may be breaking down in actual trading Reveals why traders should think of themselves as project managers who are strategically managing risk The book is based on the author's unique 'focus on the risk' approach to trading using data-driven risk statistical analytics Using this book as a guide, traders can operate more as business managers and learn how to avoid market-busting losses while achieving consistently good results.

Trading legend and market wizard Anthony Saliba's first book in 10 years describes his process evolved over 4 decades of option trading. 450 pp and 200+ charts and images.

Dorsey, a publisher of market commentary since 1985, explains market semiotics, his market research philosophy based on the logic of behavioral finance. His proprietary market diagnosis techniques have been described as market expectations theory, behavioral finance, and contrary opinion analysis. Annotation ♭2004 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com).

Background: The fact that many individuals inexplicably fail to buy stocks, despite the historical evidence for a good return on investment has been referred to as the stock market puzzle. However, measurements of the subjective probability of a gain show that people are more pessimistic than historical outcomes would suggest. Further, expectations of future stock price increases apparently depend on old information, which would seem to be at odds with rational expectations in the context of efficient markets. To shed light on these apparent paradoxes, we analyzed the relationships between actual stock market price changes and the subjective probability of price changes, and between the subjective probability of price changes and the likelihood of engaging in stock trading. Approach: Drawing on 31 waves of longitudinal data on investment behavior from the American Life Panel surveys from November 2008 to the present, we tracked high frequency changes in expectations at the individual level and related them to high frequency changes in stock market prices. We analyzed both individuals who held stock in retirement accounts and those who held stocks outside of these accounts. Results: Changes in the subjective probability for one-year and 10-year gains in stock prices correlated with the Standard and Poor 500 Index with lags ranging from changes during the most recent week to changes more than a month before. This relationship was stronger among those who professed to follow the stock market and to have good knowledge than among those whose understanding is poor. Among individuals who held stock outside of retirement accounts, the likelihood of buying and selling stock was more strongly associated with recent stock behavior than among those who held stocks only within retirement accounts. Conclusions: On average, subjective expectations of stock market behavior depend on stock price changes. Furthermore, stock trading responds to changes in expectations.

The financial markets have become more and more important in modern society. The behavior of the financial markets, and its impacts on our society, relies crucially on the behavior of market participants, aka the investors of different types. Although descriptions of the financial markets on the macro level have caught great attentions of investors, regulators, and the ordinary people, how the market participants interact with each other in the financial market may provide deeper insights on how and why the financial markets behave. This book tries to supply as much research on the micro level of financial market behavior as possible to the readers. The author has been doing financial research, especially on the micro level, during the past two decades. The academic research on this broad area has undergone a rapid growth, with new results, methods, theories, and even paradigms, emerging and burgeoning almost every year. As a financial researcher in one of China’s top universities, the author has kept monitoring, digesting, and synthesizing the research articles in the area. This book is the outcome of this decades-long routine research work of the author. The book covers the fundamental economic theories of how different investors receive and interpret information. The empirical results of investors behavior are also discussed in depth. The book also shows the basic academic techniques of modeling the investors behavior.

These 21 readings describe the orgins and growth of the macroeconomic analysis known as "rational expectations". The readings trace the development of this approach from the late 1970s to the 1990s.

What do the profits of winning traders depend on? How much does psychology count in their trading? Is success in trading just a technical question or do the psychological characteristics of each person also have a profound influence? The answers to these and many other questions can be found in the first practical handbook of trading psychology. This guide was created to take you by the hand and introduce you to the world of stock market psychology. Inside it concentrates all the basic concepts of the subject, without too much dilution or waste of time; from the psychological advantages of winning traders to the development of the business plan itself. From mental and operational insurance to trade management, money management and risk management. All the information is provided in a simple, practical and accessible way and will allow you to quickly acquire the initial knowledge. Stop wasting time and find out immediately how the psychology of trading works with this operational guide.