World Bank Staff Working Paper

Work is constantly reshaped by technological progress. New ways of production are adopted, markets expand, and societies evolve. But some changes provoke more attention than others, in part due to the vast uncertainty involved in making predictions about the future. The 2019 World Development Report will study how the nature of work is changing as a result of advances in technology today. Technological progress disrupts existing systems. A new social contract is needed to smooth the transition and guard against rising inequality. Significant investments in human capital throughout a person’s lifecycle are vital to this effort. If workers are to stay competitive against machines they need to train or retool existing skills. A social protection system that includes a minimum basic level of protection for workers and citizens can complement new forms of employment. Improved private sector policies to encourage startup activity and competition can help countries compete in the digital age. Governments also need to ensure that firms pay their fair share of taxes, in part to fund this new social contract. The 2019 World Development Report presents an analysis of these issues based upon the available evidence.

Policy dialogue on governance.

This first report deals with some of the major development issues confronting the developing countries and explores the relationship of the major trends in the international economy to them. It is designed to help clarify some of the linkages between the international economy and domestic strategies in the developing countries against the background of growing interdependence and increasing complexity in the world economy. It assesses the prospects for progress in accelerating growth and alleviating poverty, and identifies some of the major policy issues which will affect these prospects.

A general approach to economic analysis of projects is presented, including the basic notions of cost-benefit analysis in the context of project analysis. A systematic and consistent estimation and application of shadow prices is needed, and suggestions are made for incorporating distributional effects, as well as the customary efficiency components, into shadow prices. Social rates of return can then be calculated, taking into account the distributional impact of various projects, an aspect ignored in the usual economic rates of return as derived from efficiency prices. Shadow prices are derived to reflect a wide range of economic conditions and value judgments concerning basic policy objectives pertaining to growth and distribution. Uncertainty, sensitivity, and risk must also be evaluated in project analysis. An appendix addresses the technical derivation of shadow prices.