Crude Oil Prices Trends And Forecast

Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of observed trends, as market fundamentals and underlying monetary policies were supportive of these trends. Market expectations derived from option prices anticipated further surge in oil prices and allowed significant probability for right tail events. Given explosive trends in other commodities prices, depreciating currencies, and weakening financial conditions, recent trends in oil prices might not persist further without triggering world economic recession, regressive oil supply, as oil producers became wary about inflation. Restoring stable oil markets, through restraining monetary policy, is essential for durable growth and price stability.

This book develops new econometric models to analyze and forecast the world market price of oil. The authors construct ARIMA and Trend models to forecast oil prices, taking into consideration outside factors such as political turmoil and solar activity on the price of oil. Incorporating historical and contemporary market trends, the authors are able to make medium and long-term forecasting results. In the first chapter, the authors perform a broad spectrum analysis of the theoretical and methodological challenges of oil price forecasting. In the second chapter, the authors build and test the econometric models needed for the forecasts. The final chapter of the text brings together the conclusions they reached through applying the models to their research. This book will be useful to students in economics, particularly those in upper-level courses on forecasting and econometrics as well as to politicians and policy makers in oil-producing countries, oil importing countries, and relevant international organizations.

This paper undertakes an investigation into the efficiency of the crude oil futures market and the forecasting accuracy of futures prices. Efficiency of the market is analysed in terms of the expected excess returns to speculation in the futures market. Accuracy of futures prices is compared with that of forecasts using alternative techniques, including time series and econometric models, as well as judgemental forecasts. The paper also explores the predictive power of futures prices by comparing the forecasting accuracy of end-of-month prices with weekly and monthly averages, using a variety of different weighting schemes. Finally, the paper investigates whether the forecasts from using futures prices can be improved by incorporating information from other forecasting techniques.

The widespread need for a realistic perspective on the likely trends in future petroleum prices first became obvious during the 1970s, and again in the mid-1980s. Businessmen associated with the petroleum trade need a rational outlook on prices; judging from past experience, however, they seem ready to adopt whatever conventional wisdom emerges about likely future trends. One of the purposes of this analysis is to determine what led earlier forecasts so far astray, and to set forth some important lessons that could lead to an improved forecasting methodology. A second purpose is to provide an analysis of the current situation in the international oil market and its implications for future petroleum prices over the near-term, mid-term, and long-term. By applying some realistic judgments about the inherent uncertainties in the principal factors likely to affect those prices, a perspective is developed that is intended to be helpful to buyers, sellers, and governments around the world, even though it does not rest upon a single trajectory of likely future petroleum prices. Keywords: Economic analysis; Forecasting; Natural gas; Crude oil.

We carry out an ex post assessment of popular models used to forecast oil prices and propose a host of alternative VAR models based on traditional global macroeconomic and oil market aggregates. While the exact specification of VAR models for nominal oil price prediction is still open to debate, the bias and underprediction in futures and random walk forecasts are larger across all horizons in relation to a large set of VAR specifications. The VAR forecasts generally have the smallest average forecast errors and the highest accuracy, with most specifications outperforming futures and random walk forecasts for horizons up to two years. This calls for caution in reliance on futures or the random walk for forecasting, particularly for near term predictions. Despite the overall strength of VAR models, we highlight some performance instability, with small alterations in specifications, subsamples or lag lengths providing widely different forecasts at times. Combining futures, random walk and VAR models for forecasting have merit for medium term horizons.

After the collapse of the Soviet system, the immense problems of environmental pollution in Central and Eastern Europe were widely publicized. Less well known were its effects on health in the region, which have led to a serious health crisis. This report examines the degree to which the pollution adversely affected human health, putting it in the context of other health determinants such as socioeconomic factors, health care standards and availability, and lifestyle factors. Among the numerous pollutants, the report points to lead, dust, toxic gases, and nitrates in rural water supplies as having a significant impact on health in Central and Eastern Europe. The author suggests possible avenues for international action. However, an analysis of the determinants of health reveals that addressing the pollution problems alone will not solve the health crisis. Improving health in this region will depend on the changing economic fortunes of individual countries and the ability of each to create a supportive social environment for its citizens.

The scale of the socio-economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global economy has not been witnessed since the Great Depression. Isolation measures, implemented across the globe to contain the virus, confined hundreds of millions of people into their homes, bringing economic activities to a standstill. This crisis has impacted the oil and gas industry in an unprecedented manner. A massive decline in oil demand and a large oversupply, intensified by the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, has sent oil prices to levels unseen in decades. While the oil industry has faced several crises that have pushed it to find new ways to conduct business and adapt to changing conditions, the Covid-induced crisis has come when the industry is dealing with increased shareholder activism and intense pressure on the environmental front. Since this is a new phase for the industry, it could also become the catalyst that accelerates the transformation it has started to go through. Oil will continue to play an essential role in the energy mix for many decades. However, oil companies will have to navigate and manage an uncertain future as oil and gas projects will be riskier to develop and consequently require a higher rate of return. They will have to diversify their portfolios and continue shifting toward an integrated business model that embraces the changes caused by the energy transition and the growth in renewable and new technologies.