Examination Of Solar Cycle Statistical Model And New Prediction Of Solar Cycle 23
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Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23
Author | : Myung-Hee Y. Kim |
Publsiher | : Unknown |
Total Pages | : 20 |
Release | : 2000 |
Genre | : Solar cycle |
ISBN | : NASA:31769000451552 |
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Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.
Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23
Author | : National Aeronautics and Space Adm Nasa |
Publsiher | : Independently Published |
Total Pages | : 34 |
Release | : 2018-09-27 |
Genre | : Science |
ISBN | : 1724082612 |
Download Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23 Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available. Kim, Myung-Hee Y. and Wilson, John W. Langley Research Center NASA/TP-2000-210536, L-18020, NAS 1.60:210536
An Improved Solar Cycle Statistical Model for the Projection of Near Future Sunspot Cycles
Author | : National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) |
Publsiher | : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform |
Total Pages | : 30 |
Release | : 2018-05-29 |
Genre | : Electronic Book |
ISBN | : 1720380589 |
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Since the current solar cycle 23 has progressed near the end of the cycle and accurate solar minimum and maximum occurrences have been defined, a statistical model based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles was reexamined. Separate calculations of activity levels were made for the rising and declining phases in solar cycle 23, which resulted in improved projection of sunspots in the remainder of cycle 23. Because a fundamental understanding of the transition from cycle to cycle has not been developed, at this time it is assumed for projection purposes that solar cycle 24 will continue at the same activity level in the declining phase of cycle 23. Projection errors in solar cycle 24 can be corrected as the cycle progresses and observations become available because this model is shown to be self-correcting.Kim, Myung-Hee Y. and Wilson, John W. and Cucinotta, Francis A.Johnson Space Center; Langley Research CenterMATHEMATICAL MODELS; SUNSPOT CYCLE; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; SOLAR CYCLES; SOLAR PHYSICS; RADIATION DOSAGE; RADIATION EFFECTS; RADIATION ABSORPTION; SUN
Safety Design for Space Systems
Author | : Gary E. Musgrave Ph.D,Axel Larsen,Tommaso Sgobba |
Publsiher | : Butterworth-Heinemann |
Total Pages | : 992 |
Release | : 2009-03-27 |
Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | : 0080559220 |
Download Safety Design for Space Systems Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Progress in space safety lies in the acceptance of safety design and engineering as an integral part of the design and implementation process for new space systems. Safety must be seen as the principle design driver of utmost importance from the outset of the design process, which is only achieved through a culture change that moves all stakeholders toward front-end loaded safety concepts. This approach entails a common understanding and mastering of basic principles of safety design for space systems at all levels of the program organisation. Fully supported by the International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety (IAASS), written by the leading figures in the industry, with frontline experience from projects ranging from the Apollo missions, Skylab, the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station, this book provides a comprehensive reference for aerospace engineers in industry. It addresses each of the key elements that impact on space systems safety, including: the space environment (natural and induced); human physiology in space; human rating factors; emergency capabilities; launch propellants and oxidizer systems; life support systems; battery and fuel cell safety; nuclear power generators (NPG) safety; habitat activities; fire protection; safety-critical software development; collision avoidance systems design; operations and on-orbit maintenance. * The only comprehensive space systems safety reference, its must-have status within space agencies and suppliers, technical and aerospace libraries is practically guaranteed * Written by the leading figures in the industry from NASA, ESA, JAXA, (et cetera), with frontline experience from projects ranging from the Apollo missions, Skylab, the Space Shuttle, small and large satellite systems, and the International Space Station. * Superb quality information for engineers, programme managers, suppliers and aerospace technologists; fully supported by the IAASS (International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety)
An Improved Solar Cycle Statistical Model for the Projection of Near Future Sunspot Cycles
Author | : Myung-Hee Y. Kim,John William Wilson,Francis A. Cucinotta |
Publsiher | : Unknown |
Total Pages | : 18 |
Release | : 2004 |
Genre | : Solar cycle |
ISBN | : OCLC:1303273803 |
Download An Improved Solar Cycle Statistical Model for the Projection of Near Future Sunspot Cycles Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Since the current solar cycle 23 has progressed near the end of the cycle and accurate solar minimum and maximum occurrences have been defined, a statistical model based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles was reexamined. Separate calculations of activity levels were made for the rising and declining phases in solar cycle 23, which resulted in improved projection of sunspots in the remainder of cycle 23.
Solar Activity Prediction
Author | : Anonim |
Publsiher | : Unknown |
Total Pages | : 124 |
Release | : 1971 |
Genre | : Solar activity |
ISBN | : NASA:31769000491731 |
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A statistical study of formulas for predicting the sunspot number several years in advance is reported. By using a data lineup with cycle maxima coinciding, and by using multiple and nonlinear predictors, a new formula which gives better error estimates than former formulas derived from the work of McNish and Lincoln is obtained. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine which of several mathematical expressions best describes the relationship between 10.7 cm solar flux and Zurich sunspot numbers. Attention is given to the autocorrelation of the observations, and confidence intervals for the derived relationships are presented. The accuracy of predicting a value of 10.7 cm solar flux from a predicted sunspot number is dicussed.
Monthly Catalog of United States Government Publications
Author | : Anonim |
Publsiher | : Unknown |
Total Pages | : 880 |
Release | : 2003 |
Genre | : Government publications |
ISBN | : MINN:31951P00914257P |
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Solar terrestrial Predictions Proceedings
Author | : Richard Frank Donnelly |
Publsiher | : Unknown |
Total Pages | : 528 |
Release | : 1979 |
Genre | : Cosmic physics |
ISBN | : STANFORD:36105133453683 |
Download Solar terrestrial Predictions Proceedings Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle