Future Roles Of U S Nuclear Forces

This study examines the possible roles of nuclear weapons in contemporary U.S. national security policy. The United States has a range of nuclear strategies and postures among which to choose: from abolition of U.S. nuclear weapons, aggressive reductions and "dealerting," "business as usual, only smaller," more aggressive nuclear posture, to nuclear emphasis. The nation should have the operational flexibility to in fact use a modest number of nuclear weapons if the need were overwhelming and other options were inadequate.

This study examines the possible roles of nuclear weapons in contemporary U.S. national security policy. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has been reexamining its basic assumptions about foreign policy and various instruments of national security policy to define its future needs. Nowhere is such an examination more important than in the nuclear arena.

“An excellent contribution to the debate on the future role of nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence in American foreign policy.” ―Contemporary Security Policy This book is a counter to the conventional wisdom that the United States can and should do more to reduce both the role of nuclear weapons in its security strategies and the number of weapons in its arsenal. The case against nuclear weapons has been made on many grounds—including historical, political, and moral. But, Brad Roberts argues, it has not so far been informed by the experience of the United States since the Cold War in trying to adapt deterrence to a changed world, and to create the conditions that would allow further significant changes to U.S. nuclear policy and posture. Drawing on the author’s experience in the making and implementation of U.S. policy in the Obama administration, this book examines that real-world experience and finds important lessons for the disarmament enterprise. Central conclusions of the work are that other nuclear-armed states are not prepared to join the United States in making reductions, and that unilateral steps by the United States to disarm further would be harmful to its interests and those of its allies. The book ultimately argues in favor of patience and persistence in the implementation of a balanced approach to nuclear strategy that encompasses political efforts to reduce nuclear dangers along with military efforts to deter them. “Well-researched and carefully argued.” ―Foreign Affairs

In the Preface, the author writes: I initially proposed my research to look at START II levels and beyond, focusing on the question, "How low can we go?" As I witnessed President George Bush's unilateral initiatives and the Washington Summit agreement, I realized that nuclear weapons levels over the next decade already had been decided. I began to ask myself, "On what are these tremendous force reductions based?" and "Does the United States have a plan for when nonproliferation efforts fail?" These questions led me to my research topic, "What is the role of US nuclear weapons in the post-cold war era?" One thing is for sure: there are a multitude of opinions being expressed. I began my research with an examination of the role of nuclear weapons from a historical context. I then surveyed current unclassified national guidance regarding nuclear weapons. Following this, I examined the literature for what various proposals were being offered in the public sector as the future for US nuclear weapons. Due to the tremendous magnitude of literature on nuclear weapons, policy, strategy, and arms control, I chose to limit my coverage to a sampling of proposals that have been made over the last few years. I then looked at possible threats the United States may face over the next couple of decades. I limited this discussion to weapons of mass destruction, since these threats are most likely to draw a US nuclear response. Finally, I proposed some overall nuclear force characteristics that would provide the United States with a viable deterrent for the post-cold war era by maintaining the capability to respond across the full spectrum of conflict. Contents: Chapter 1 - Historical Overview of US Nuclear Policy * Chapter 2 - US Nuclear Policy after the Cold War * Chapter 3 - Current Thinking on the Future Role of Nuclear Weapons * Chapter 4 - The Threat-Weapons of Mass Destruction * Chapter 5 - US Nuclear Forces for the Post-Cold War Era * Chapter 6 - Conclusions and Recommendations

Sweeping changes are occurring in the international system, presenting the United States with both opportunities and challenges. The East-West strategic rivalry that dominated the global security environment for over forty years has been fundamentally and, in a number of critical ways, irreversibly altered. Yet the world continues to be unpredictable and dangerous. Relations with Russia and China have improved dramatically in the last ten years but remain uncertain. Both states continue to emphasize and modernize their nuclear arsenals. In other regions of vital interest to the United States, potential adversaries increasingly have at their disposal advanced conventional and unconventional capabilities, as well as weapons of mass destruction and the means for their delivery. Together, these and other factors, such as the ongoing revolution in military technology, have engendered major adjustments in U.S. national security policy and in the strategy and forces that support U.S. security interests. A series of U.S. government analyses, including the Nuclear Posture Review and the Quadrennial Defense Review, has guided the restructuring of U.S. conventional forces and provided the basis for the late 1997 Presidential Decision Directive on nuclear weapons policy. Further analyses and adjustments will certainly follow. As a contribution to this dynamic process, this report assesses the rationale and requirements for U.S. nuclear weapons, and the infrastructure and people that are critical to their sustainment, in the current and future security environment. By so doing, the report is intended to promote greater understanding of the issues and the measures that will be necessary to sustain deterrence in an uncertain future. The American public and its leadership in both the Executive and Legislative branches must remain informed, involved, and supportive. Absent concerted and continuing high-level attention to the policies and programs supporting its nuclear forces, 7.

Contents: (1) Introduction; (2) Background: The Strategic Triad: Force Structure and Size During the Cold War; Force Structure and Size After the Cold War; Future Force Structure and Size; (3) Strategic Nuclear Delivery Vehicles: Ongoing Plans and Programs: (a) Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles: Peacekeeper; Minuteman III; Minuteman Modernization Programs; Future Programs; (b) Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles: The SSGN Program; The Backfit Program; Basing Changes; Warhead Issues; Modernization Plans and Programs; Future Programs; (c) Bombers: B-1 Bomber; B-2 Bomber; B-52 Bomber; Future Bomber Plans; (4) Issues for Congress: Force Size; Force Structure; Safety, Security, and Management Issues. Illustrations.

The debate about appropriate purposes and policies for U.S. nuclear weapons has been under way since the beginning of the nuclear age. With the end of the Cold War, the debate has entered a new phase, propelled by the post-Cold War transformations of the international political landscape. This volumeâ€"based on an exhaustive reexamination of issues addressed in The Future of the U.S.-Soviet Nuclear Relationship (NRC, 1991)â€"describes the state to which U.S. and Russian nuclear forces and policies have evolved since the Cold War ended. The book evaluates a regime of progressive constraints for future U.S. nuclear weapons policy that includes further reductions in nuclear forces, changes in nuclear operations to preserve deterrence but enhance operational safety, and measures to help prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons. In addition, it examines the conditions and means by which comprehensive nuclear disarmament could become feasible and desirable.