The Nature Of Change Or The Law Of Unintended Consequences

This absorbing book provides a broad introduction to the surprising nature of change, and explains how the Law of Unintended Consequences arises from the waves of change following one simple change. Change is a constant topic of discussion, whether be it on climate, politics, technology, or any of the many other changes in our lives. However, does anyone truly understand what change is? Over time, mankind has deliberately built social and technology based systems that are goal-directed — there are goals to achieve and requirements to be met. Building such systems is man's way of planning for the future, and these plans are based on predicting the behavior of the system and its environment, at specified times in the future. Unfortunately, in a truly complex social or technical environment, this planned predictability can break down into a morass of surprising and unexpected consequences. Such unpredictability stems from the propagation of the effects of change through the influence of one event on another. The Nature of Change explains in detail the mechanism of change and will serve as an introduction to complex systems, or as complementary reading for systems engineering. This textbook will be especially useful to professionals in system building or business change management, and to students studying systems in a variety of fields such as information technology, business, law and society. Contents:What Do We Mean By Change?Some DefinitionsFailure by DesignInfluence, Boundaries and StructureChange in Complex SystemsPropagationModelling and Modelling MechanismsSimulationWhat Do We Do When a Change is Indicated?Implementing a SystemReal World Change: EUREKA ClassReal-World Change: Climate Readership: Students studying systems such as information technology, business, legal or social systems; professionals and academics in system building or business change management. Keywords:Change;Complex Systems;Socio-Technical;Systems Engineering;Information Technology;ManagementKey Features:This book is unique in addressing the mechanism of the phenomenon of change. It explains how and why waves of change sweep across a system, leaving unexpected consequences in their wakeProvides professionals who are system building, managing change in business or in any other spheres where change is happening, with a methodology to build systems in a continually changing environmentCan be used as an introduction to complex systems, or as complementary reading for systems engineering

This absorbing book provides a broad introduction to the surprising nature of change, and explains how the Law of Unintended Consequences arises from the waves of change following one simple change. Change is a constant topic of discussion, whether be it on climate, politics, technology, or any of the many other changes in our lives. However, does anyone truly understand what change is? Over time, mankind has deliberately built social and technology based systems that are goal-directed there are goals to achieve and requirements to be met. Building such systems is man's way of planning for the future, and these plans are based on predicting the behavior of the system and its environment, at specified times in the future. Unfortunately, in a truly complex social or technical environment, this planned predictability can break down into a morass of surprising and unexpected consequences. Such unpredictability stems from the propagation of the effects of change through the influence of one event on another. The Nature of Change explains in detail the mechanism of change and will serve as an introduction to complex systems, or as complementary reading for systems engineering. This textbook will be especially useful to professionals in system building or business change management, and to students studying systems in a variety of fields such as information technology, business, law and society.

This title provides managers, executives and other professionals with an innovative method for critical decision-making. The book explains the reasons for decision failures using the Law of Unintended Consequences. This account draws on the work of sociologist Robert K. Merton, psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, and economist Herbert Simon to identify two primary causes⁠: cognitive biases and bounded rationality. It introduces an innovative method for “test driving” decisions that addresses both causes by combining scenario planning and “what-if” simulations. This method enables professionals to learn safely from virtual mistakes rather than real ones. It also provides four sample test drives of realistic critical decisions as well as two instructional videos to illustrate this new method. This book provides leaders and their support teams with important new tools for analyzing and refining complex decisions that are critical to organizational well-being and survival.

This book offers a conceptualisation of unintended consequences and addresses a set of common research questions, highlighting the nature (what), the causes (why), and the modes of management (how) of unintended consequences of the European Union’s (EU) external action. The chapters in the book engage with conceptual and empirical dimensions of the topic, as well as scholarly and policy implications thereof. They do so by looking at EU external action across various policy domains (including trade, migration, development, state-building, democracy promotion, and rule of law reform) and geographic areas (including the USA, Russia, the Western Balkans, the southern and eastern European neighbourhood, and Africa). The book contributes to the study of the EU as an international actor by broadening the notion of its impact abroad to include the unintended consequences of its (in)actions and by shedding new light on the conceptual paradigms that explain EU external action. This book fills the gap in IR and EU scholarship concerning unintended consequences in an international context and will be of interest to anyone studying this important phenomenon. It was originally published as a special issue of The International Spectator (Italian Journal of International Affairs). Chapters 1, 3, 7, 8 and 9 are available Open Access at https://www.routledge.com/products/9780367346492.

In the aftermath of the Financial Crisis, many com­monly held beliefs have emerged to explain its cause. Conventional wisdom blames Wall Street and the mortgage industry for using low down pay­ments, teaser rates, and other predatory tactics to seduce unsuspecting home owners into assuming mortgages they couldn't afford. It blames average Americans for borrowing recklessly and spend­ing too much. And it blames the tax policies and deregulatory environment of the Reagan and Bush administrations for encouraging reckless risk taking by wealthy individuals and financial institutions. But according to Unintended Consequences, the conventional wisdom masks the real causes of our economic disruption and puts us at risk of facing a slew of unintended-and potentially dangerous-consequences.

Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.

This book arose from an inaugural conference on Migration Law and Policy at the ANU College of Law. The conference brought together academics and practitioners from a diverse range of disciplines and practice. The book is based on a selection of the papers and presentations given during that conference. Each explores the unexpected, unwanted and sometimes tragic outcomes of migration law and policy, identifying ambiguities, uncertainties, and omissions affecting both temporary and permanent migrants. Together, the papers present a myriad of perspectives, providing a sense of urgency that focuses on the immediate and political consequences of an Australian migration milieu created without due consideration and exposing the daily reality under the migration program for individuals and for society as a whole.

Global environmental change often seems to be the most carefully examined issue of our time. Yet understanding the human sideâ€"human causes of and responses to environmental changeâ€"has not yet received sustained attention. Global Environmental Change offers a strategy for combining the efforts of natural and social scientists to better understand how our actions influence global change and how global change influences us. The volume is accessible to the nonscientist and provides a wide range of examples and case studies. It explores how the attitudes and actions of individuals, governments, and organizations intertwine to leave their mark on the health of the planet. The book focuses on establishing a framework for this new field of study, identifying problems that must be overcome if we are to deepen our understanding of the human dimensions of global change, presenting conclusions and recommendations.