Unintended Consequences

A rising by the pro-gun lobby brings the government to its knees. The story begins when Henry Bowman, a geologist in Iowa, fires on federal agents, thinking they are terrorists. The conflict escalates, agents and congressmen die, and to bring peace the president agrees to repeal anti-gun laws and pardon the rebels.

In the aftermath of the Financial Crisis, many com­monly held beliefs have emerged to explain its cause. Conventional wisdom blames Wall Street and the mortgage industry for using low down pay­ments, teaser rates, and other predatory tactics to seduce unsuspecting home owners into assuming mortgages they couldn't afford. It blames average Americans for borrowing recklessly and spend­ing too much. And it blames the tax policies and deregulatory environment of the Reagan and Bush administrations for encouraging reckless risk taking by wealthy individuals and financial institutions. But according to Unintended Consequences, the conventional wisdom masks the real causes of our economic disruption and puts us at risk of facing a slew of unintended-and potentially dangerous-consequences.

In this book, based on the 1995 Ohlin Lectures, Deepak Lal provides an accessible, interdisciplinary account of the role of culture in shaping economic performance. Topics addressed include a possible future "clash of civilizations," the role of Asian values in the East Asian economic miracle, the cultural versus economic causes of social decay in the West, and whether modernization leads to Westernization. Lal makes an important distinction between material and cosmological beliefs, showing how both were initially shaped by factor endowments and how they have evolved in response to changing historical pressures in different civilizations. Lal's first major theme is the interaction of factor endowments, culture, and politics in explaining modern intensive growth in the West. The other major theme is the role of individualism--an inadvertent legacy of the medieval Catholic Church--in promoting this growth, and the strange metamorphoses this has caused in both the West's cosmological beliefs and the interaction between "the West and the rest." Lal takes account of the relevant literature in history, anthropology, social psychology, evolutionary biology, neurology, and sociology, and the economic history of the regions and cultures that form Eurasia. An appendix shows how the stories Lal tells can be described by four formal economic models.

A rigorous global examination of the links between peaceful borders and illicit transnational flows of crime and terrorism.

How is it that, in doing our very best to achieve one thing, we can end up achieving just the opposite? There exists an unseen force with an unassuming name that conceals all manner of terrors. It is ‘Unintended Consequences’, and it takes our efforts to do the good and right thing, turns them to ashes and blows them back in our faces. Whether it be governments fighting a “War on Terror” only to bring their economies crashing about their ears, ecologists attempting to stamp out pests but making things ten times worse in the process, or giving people lots of choice only for them to make worse decisions, it is all too easy to start out with the best of intentions, only to end up doing more harm than good. In Unintended Consequences, Clive Wills discusses national disasters, Prohibition and the War on Drugs, frustrated efforts to improve health and safety, and touches on issues of everyday life such as how to improve relationships and bring up children. As HL Mencken reflected, “For every complex problem, there is a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong”. This book examines the many ways in which those apparently simple solutions can turn around and bite us, and more importantly, just what we can do about it.

"This volume of essays is dedicated to George Soros in honor of his seventieth birthday. In their various fields of work the authors, who come from the interconnected worlds of academe, politics, and business, have each made an active contribution to the growth of the huge philanthropic empire built by Soros." "The editors chose the title The Paradoxes of Unintended Consequences to encourage contributors to adopt a dialogical approach. The title also refers to the case of Giordano Bruno, itself a telling example of paradox. Burnt at the stake 400 years ago for heresy, Bruno's views were probably far more illiberal and undemocratic than the views of those who condemned him. The editors' aim was to show that any complex social process or political attempt to change people's lives will inevitably have unintended consequences, usually of a paradoxical nature. These consequences should force us to reconsider our original theory."--BOOK JACKET.Title Summary field provided by Blackwell North America, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Called by New York Times columnist David Brooks the "smartest and most devastating" critic of President George W. Bush's Iraq policies, Peter Galbraith was the earliest expert to describe Iraq's breakup into religious and ethnic entities, a reality now commonly accepted. The Iraq war was intended to make the United States more secure, bring democracy to the Middle East, intimidate Iran and Syria, help win the war on terror, consolidate American world leadership, and entrench the Republican Party for decades. Instead, Bush handed Iran its greatest strategic triumph in four centuries U.S. troops now fight to support an Iraqi government led by religious parties intent on creating an Iranian-style Islamic republic As part of the surge, the United States created a Sunni militia led by the same Baathists the U.S. invaded Iraq to overthrow administration gave Iran and North Korea a free pass to advance their nuclear programs Obsessed with Iraq's nonexistent WMD, the Bush administration gave Iran and North Korea a free pass to advance their nuclear programs Turkey, a key NANATO ally long considered a model pro-Western Muslim democracy, became one of the most anti-American countries in the world U.S. prestige around the world reached an all-time low Iraq: Galbraith challenges the assertion that the surge will lead to victory. By creating a Sunni army, the surge has, in fact, contributed to Iraq's breakup and set the stage for an intensified civil war between Sunnis and Shiites. If the United States wishes to escape the Iraq quagmire, it must face up to the reality that the country has broken up and cannot be put back together. Iran: Having helped Iran's allies take control in Baghdad, the Bush administration no longer has a viable military option to stop Iran's nuclear program. Galbraith discusses how a president more pragmatic than Bush might get Iran to freeze its nuclear program as part of a package deal to upgrade relations between two countries equally threatened by Sunni extremism. Turkey, Syria, and Israel: A war intended to make Israel more secure, undermine Syria's Assad regime, and strengthen ties with Turkey has had the opposite result. Nationalism: In the coming decades, other countries may follow Iraq's example in fragmenting along ethnic and religious lines. Galbraith draws on his considerable experience in Iraq and the former Yugoslavia to predict where and what the United States might do about it. The United States: George W. Bush substituted wishful thinking for strategy and as a result made America weaker. Galbraith provides some rules for a national strategy that will appeal equally to conservatives and liberals -- indeed, to anyone who believes the United States needs an effective national security strategy.

This absorbing book provides a broad introduction to the surprising nature of change, and explains how the Law of Unintended Consequences arises from the waves of change following one simple change. Change is a constant topic of discussion, whether be it on climate, politics, technology, or any of the many other changes in our lives. However, does anyone truly understand what change is? Over time, mankind has deliberately built social and technology based systems that are goal-directed there are goals to achieve and requirements to be met. Building such systems is man's way of planning for the future, and these plans are based on predicting the behavior of the system and its environment, at specified times in the future. Unfortunately, in a truly complex social or technical environment, this planned predictability can break down into a morass of surprising and unexpected consequences. Such unpredictability stems from the propagation of the effects of change through the influence of one event on another. The Nature of Change explains in detail the mechanism of change and will serve as an introduction to complex systems, or as complementary reading for systems engineering. This textbook will be especially useful to professionals in system building or business change management, and to students studying systems in a variety of fields such as information technology, business, law and society.